UK house price slump to persist until 2012

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julieq wrote: »

The general economy IS starting to recover.

I'm sorry Julie, the economy won't be recovering by any meaningful amount, and if it does, it won't last very long, we walking towards the edge of a cliff that will make the current downturn, house price argument etc... seem completely irrelevant, the decade that was 97-07 will never return. We must get ourselves ready for a much simpler type of existance.

Failure to do so will mean life will be much more painful than it need be, people may laugh but trust me when your children are as old as you, the world will be very different.

julieq

Graham_Devon wrote: »

Julie. The US is in another crisis and expect to start another financial stimulus package. You just needed to watch Newsnight last night to see their deflation, rampant unemployment etc.

We are currently living on nothing but artificial money and stimulus packages.

Are you still insisting you are not a bull?

Find one single post where I've said anything other than housing would stagnate at best Graham, and we'll talk about whether I'm a bull or not. Being a bull is equally stupid as being a bear really, it's a one trick strategy.

I go to the US and I deal with manufacturing companies there, so I'm well aware of the state of the economy. In the US firing staff is a lot easier than here so the economy is far more reactive. It also picks up quicker when things improve, and I would say the outlook from the people I talk to is neutral now where it was negative a month or two back.

Anyway, I'm sure you'll keep to the party line. Can we not just agree to differ? I'm really just reporting things I'm seeing and I'll either be proved right or wrong. If I'm right a lot of misery will be avoided, which has got to be a good thing right?

Thrugelmir

julieq wrote: »

The general economy IS starting to recover. I'm currently in Germany talking to people in the manufacturing industry and they are seeing growth to something approaching normal levels, so that from projections of 30-40% year on year drops in turnover they're looking at 10% for the year now which is significantly positive result under the circumstances.

Germany is the engine of industrial output within Europe and a great deal of the UK output ends up there. We currently have a significant currency advantage, so it's really quite good news for everyone. We may well find that the projections of massive unemployment are premature, which means the swathes of repossessions may not happen and people may well continue to be able to pay their mortgages even at higher interest rates. Which is certainly good news, as I hope even the bears will agree. Growth will boost the tax take, so again a problem reduced if not solved.

I think that when you get stories like in the OP, you have to ask for a definition of "slump". If that's a generally depressed and stagnant housing market then that's probably about right. If it's about a return to 2007 absolute values then that would probably be optimistic. If it's about being the same now as then with a drop in between then that'd probably be reasonable too.

Actually I feel more optimistic about general business today than at any point for the last 12 months, as do the people I'm talking to. I still think there are setbacks and probably a few nasty surprises to come. but it's much better than it might have been. Previously people were dismissing increased order rates as evidence the supply chain had emptied and needed topping up, there's something much more significant starting to happen now.

I wouldn't disagree that Company order books are starting to recover. But after the carnage of recent months it isnt really surprising. Whilst some people will benefit its hard to see where the majority will.

1 in 8 people in the UK are employed in the retail sector in some form. Only around 1 in 6 work in manufacturing. With the loss of the steel plants, cut back at the car plants, and permanent loss of jobs in financial services. Where is the real recovery going to come from?

avalanche_3

The housing market will have a few blips on the way but it will bump along at present levels or even lower for a year or two. We will see a slow recovery in the next 3 to 4 years.

This is my best estimate.;)

Money will still be made out of property in the next few years but only by investing wisely in properties that are not overpriced and require updating to add value.

The next boom will be further into the future but we will see another boom in time when the memory of this boom and bust fades.
PROPERTY PRICES ALWAYS RISE OVER TIME.:beer:

Mr Brown may have brought us all another chance to invest in property at realistic prices because of is massive !!!! ups while in charge of the Government finances ( we will have no more boom and bust! famous last words ). :eek:

Thrugelmir

avalanche wrote: »

PROPERTY PRICES ALWAYS RISE OVER TIME.:beer:

True words. As long as we have inflation, then prices will rise. :j

ruggedtoast

Dan: wrote: »

You mean that you have no valid points left to argue now that we have reached the bottom?

The good thing is that we are likely to bump around at this level for the next 2 or 3 years, so hopefully those in denial or praying for further significant falls won't miss this buying opportunity.

Prices are never stable Dan. Theyre either going up or down Dan.

Which one are you going to choose Dan?

Up?

or Down?

Dan.

mbga9pgf

PROPERTY PRICES ALWAYS RISE OVER TIME.:beer:

Over the long term, they stay the same value though.

Dan:_4

ruggedtoast wrote: »

Prices are never stable Dan. Theyre either going up or down Dan.

Which one are you going to choose Dan?

Up?

or Down?

Dan.

I cant see any 'real' recovery for a while. We are having a few months of rises, this is likely to be followed by a few months of falls, and then a few more months of rises. This is what I meant about prices being stable at this level for a while, and will continue until mortgage lending picks up considerably.

mbga9pgf

Naah, next down will be much bigger than the recent up. Stagnant prices next spring, followed by the last "Down" next winter, post Civil service cuts.

Dan:_4

mbga9pgf wrote: »

Naah, next down will be much bigger than the recent up. Stagnant prices next spring, followed by the last "Down" next winter, post Civil service cuts.

Can't see how with mortgage lending on the up from last year.