CML figures, Gross lending up 17% in June from May

andykn

"Gross mortgage lending in June was an estimated £12.3 billion, a 17% increase from £10.5 billion in May and a 48% decline from £23.8 billion in June 2008, according to new data from the Council of Mortgage Lenders.

Gross lending in the second quarter of 2009 totalled an estimated £33.3 billion, unchanged from the first quarter, which was the lowest quarterly reading since the first quarter of 2001."

http://www.cml.org.uk/cml/media/press/2338

Not necessarily recovery, but not decline either.

HAMISH_MCTAVISH

andykn wrote: »

"Gross mortgage lending in June was an estimated £12.3 billion, a 17% increase from £10.5 billion in May and a 48% decline from £23.8 billion in June 2008, according to new data from the Council of Mortgage Lenders.

Gross lending in the second quarter of 2009 totalled an estimated £33.3 billion, unchanged from the first quarter, which was the lowest quarterly reading since the first quarter of 2001."

http://www.cml.org.uk/cml/media/press/2338

Not necessarily recovery, but not decline either.

Mortgage approvals up to 51,000 apparently as well.

Which has some interesting implications for prices....

See this thread. http://forums.moneysavingexpert.com/showthread.html?t=1826351

inspector_monkfish

OR, to put it another way......


10:00 20Jul09-UK June mortgage lending falls annual 48 pct -CML
(Adds monthly and quarterly comparison, CML comment)

LONDON, July 20 - British gross mortgage lending fell 48 percent to an estimated 12.3 billion pounds ($20.2 billion) in June from 23.843 billion a year earlier, the Council of Mortgage Lenders said on Monday.

The June lending figure represented a 17 percent increase on the upwardly revised 10.506 billion pounds lent in May, but this was likely driven by seasonal factors, the CML said.

"These may well support lending volumes at moderately higher levels over the rest of the summer," said CML economist Paul Samter.

"But the combined effects of the restricted nature of mortgage funding, reduced number of active lenders, weak labour market and limited consumer demand are likely to hold back any significant and underlying improvement," he said.

Gross mortgage lending between April and June was unchanged from the 33.3 billion pound level achieved in the first three months of the year, the lowest sum lent since the first three months of 2001, the CML said.

"Our forecast for gross mortgage lending of 145 billion pounds this year is unchanged," Samter said.

Graham_Devon

It's just a £1.8bn increase.

The figures are so low, this makes 17%.

themanbearpig

Still 50% lower than 2008 lending.

Move along, nothing to see here.

IveSeenTheLight

themanbearpig wrote: »

Still 50% lower than 2008 lending.

Move along, nothing to see here.

Yes, 48% down on a year ago.

Keep those blinkers on and be ignorant to the fact that sales and lending is steadily increasing this year.

With this perception, you'll be a year beind the times before you realise / accept what has happened.

System

I find it amusing, over the past few months it's looked like this on these threads

"Still 65% down on a year ago!!11!"
"Still 60% down on a year ago!!11!"
"Still 55% down on a year ago!!11!"
"Still 50% down on a year ago!!11!"

I wonder if we'll ever get to

"Still 0% down on a year ago!!11!... oh crap"

*Numbers are not accurate and have been made up for my personal amusement.

andykn

themanbearpig wrote: »

Still 50% lower than 2008 lending.

Move along, nothing to see here.

IF this was part of the start of recovery, what would you expect? Lending to return to 2007 levels in a month?

It may well prove to be a false dawn or even a statistical blip, but your objection has no veracity.

Graham_Devon

[QUOTE=andykn;23479451]IF this was part of the start of recovery, what would you expect? Lending to return to 2007 levels in a month?

It may well prove to be a false dawn or even a statistical blip, but your objection has no veracity.[/QUOTE]

But it's not.

michaels

Looks good in theory but of course it depends where 'a year ago' was - as 'a year ago' becomes a period during the downturn then even 'no change' from a year ago still reflects that levels are very low rather than a return to the volumes that were normal in the recent past.

Joeskeppi wrote: »

I find it amusing, over the past few months it's looked like this on these threads

"Still 65% down on a year ago!!11!"
"Still 60% down on a year ago!!11!"
"Still 55% down on a year ago!!11!"
"Still 50% down on a year ago!!11!"

I wonder if we'll ever get to

"Still 0% down on a year ago!!11!... oh crap"

*Numbers are not accurate and have been made up for my personal amusement.

System

michaels wrote: »

Looks good in theory but of course it depends where 'a year ago' was - as 'a year ago' becomes a period during the downturn then even 'no change' from a year ago still reflects that levels are very low rather than a return to the volumes that were normal in the recent past.

Yeah like I said the numbers weren't accurate, the underlying value could remain static and my example would work.

But, the underlying value is increasing, yet people just stick their fingers in their ears and shout LALLALALLA, which isn't helping themselves or anyone else.