Weak mortgage lending hits UK housing recovery

halight

http://business.timesonline.co.uk/tol/business/industry_sectors/construction_and_property/article6600881.ece

IveSeenTheLight

So in short they are saying mortgage approvals did not rise by as much as they expected.
Still rose 5 times in the last six months though

zappahey

IveSeenTheLight wrote: »

So in short they are saying mortgage approvals did not rise by as much as they expected.
Still rose 5 times in the last six months though

Well, yes, but it's risen from (relatively) hardly anything to not very much more.

IveSeenTheLight

zappahey wrote: »

Well, yes, but it's risen from (relatively) hardly anything to not very much more.

Some people on here quote 70,000 sales as the figure required to sustain growth.
The figure for May was circa 43,414, so yes lower than the 70,000 figure, but still 43,414 sales.
Simple mathematics shows that this is roughly 500,000 sales in a year.

The CML have recently lowered their prediction of reposessiong to 65,000, so I don't foresee how this "relatively" low figure will cause such a large impact on house prices.

Personally, I don't agree with the 70,000 sales figures requirement. The reason being that it all depends on supply and demand (desire and access to funds).
Supply and demand set the basis of whether there is competition for the same property.
More supply means less competition, less supply means more competition.

So we are seeing less sales, but we also know there is less properties marketed.

There is a very strong chance that what we will see if a couple of years stagnation i.e. up a few months, then down a few months, but we could well be at the bottom of overall average house price declines.

HAMISH_MCTAVISH

IveSeenTheLight wrote: »

Some people on here quote 70,000 sales as the figure required to sustain growth.
The figure for May was circa 43,414, so yes lower than the 70,000 figure, but still 43,414 sales.
Simple mathematics shows that this is roughly 500,000 sales in a year.

The CML have recently lowered their prediction of reposessiong to 65,000, so I don't foresee how this "relatively" low figure will cause such a large impact on house prices.

Personally, I don't agree with the 70,000 sales figures requirement. The reason being that it all depends on supply and demand (desire and access to funds).
Supply and demand set the basis of whether there is competition for the same property.
More supply means less competition, less supply means more competition.

So we are seeing less sales, but we also know there is less properties marketed.

There is a very strong chance that what we will see if a couple of years stagnation i.e. up a few months, then down a few months, but we could well be at the bottom of overall average house price declines.

Well said. UK house prices dot net have done some prediction work on levels of approvals required for price neutrality, and they estimate it as around 48000. As prices fall, so does the level of purchases to stabilise the market.

Actual sales last month was 60,000. 40K approvals plus some cash buyers.

CML have indeed lowered their prediction on reposessions, and 65,000 is basically a one month supply. Nowhere near enough to cause a further big fall.

Mortgage lending for new purchase has risen every month for 5 months now, as has approvals, and the size of loan is increasing too. The avaerage

Prices have risen from a low of 147K in Feb, to a current of 156K today. There will be some further small falls over next winter, but we are now in the "bump along the bottom" phase of the market.

geoffky

sorry..the biggest bubble in history is NOT going to be followed by the smallest bust...

presh_2

HAMISH_MCTAVISH wrote: »

Well said. UK house prices dot net have done some prediction work on levels of approvals required for price neutrality, and they estimate it as around 48000. As prices fall, so does the level of purchases to stabilise the market.
The avaerage

Prices have risen from a low of 147K in Feb, to a current of 156K today. There will be some further small falls over next winter, but we are now in the "bump along the bottom" phase of the market.

Thats utter tosh.

GB99

HAMISH_McTAVISH. I suggest you contact the owner of the UK house prices website so he can explain the numbers behind the approvals chart. The number of approvals required for price stability increases as more approvals are granted as the ratio of cash purchases to mortgage funded purchases changes. So the number required for complete price stability looks like being around the 75,000 level, but this also depends upon price.

Regards

pete80

geoffky wrote: »

sorry..the biggest bubble in history is NOT going to be followed by the smallest bust...

Too true geoff, this house price decline has got another 2 years or more to go at maybe a slower rate but no magical recovery.

MSE forum readers will soon get used to Hamish's usual load of twaddle, he must have got tired of HPC

HAMISH_MCTAVISH

geoffky wrote: »

sorry..the biggest bubble in history is NOT going to be followed by the smallest bust...

Hi Geoff, I see you've posted my whereabouts over on the dark side. Nice one.

Maybe we'll get some proper debate going on over here too.;)

Although judging by the lack of content and reasoning in your post, maybe not.....:D

van_persie

If this is the 'bump along the bottom' phase and people still can't afford to buy, I shudder to think how 'bumping along the bottom' will be in any way possible, given that banks have now returned to NORMAL lending criteria.
Another deluded poster who probably bought at peak and is desperately trying to reassure himself that the 'good times' of relentless HPI are set to return.