The big price falls are over.

mbga9pgf

Yeah, anything Over GDP or wage rises in particular.

In which case, they have a long way to fall yet Wolvoman.

StevieJ

The_White_Horse wrote: »

The banks won't lend to keep prices at their current levels. The end.

Horsesh1t - end of

barrooo

Don't get me wrong, I still feel there will not be any 2000-2007 HPI for a long time

I have to take the opposite view on this bit, if, and its a big if, we see a sustained uptrend in property prices through this year, I think HPI will jump massively, possibly/probably leading through to inflation in the wider market and interest rates going back up. All this leading back to the situation we had previously and possibly leading to an even bigger bust than we have now.
So many people are still of the opinion that property is cheap at the moment, that they would fear missing the boat again and try to jump on the property ladder, and as we all know banks would be more than happy to return to the lending practices before the bust, as they now know the government will be forced to prop them up if we have another bust. The key issue for me will be levels of unemployment for the next six months.

ad9898_3

barrooo wrote: »

I have to take the opposite view on this bit, if, and its a big if, we see a sustained uptrend in property prices through this year, I think HPI will jump massively

This would not be possible, you would need an extra £200 billion per year to be lent out by the banks, this money no longer exists, on top of that you would need that money to be lent out very badly, i.e. 100%+ mortgages, self cert liar loans etc, and that is not even taking into account the current economic climate.

Make no mistake whether FTB'rs, homeowners, BTL'rs etc, want massive HPI or not, it's not going to happen for many, many years.

StevieJ

ad9898 wrote: »

Make no mistake whether FTB'rs, homeowners, BTL'rs etc, want massive HPI or not, it's not going to happen for many, many years.

All seeing one , I think I have been around long enough on this earth not to make firm judgements on what will happen past the short term future.

Graham_Devon

StevieJ wrote: »

All seeing one , I think I have been around long enough on this earth not to make firm judgements on what will happen past the short term future.

I do wish you would just shut up then

mewbie_2

StevieJ wrote: »

I have been around long enough on this earth not to make firm judgements on what will happen past the short term future.

I haven't!!! :T:j

They're going to plummet matey.

StevieJ

Graham_Devon wrote: »

I do wish you would just shut up then

Tell you what, find me a clip where I predict past the short term future, that reminds me I wish you had kept your footer

Graham_Devon

StevieJ wrote: »

Tell you what, find me a clip where I predict past the short term future, that reminds me I wish you had kept your footer

What you on, youtube, googlevids, or lookwhereicanstickmyheadtube?

crazygaijin

ad9898 wrote: »

Ok, many of the regulars here maybe a little shocked at my stance on this, but after the Nationwide figure today, it kinda got me thinking. With the base rate set to stay low for sometime to come it is giving a lot people out there pause for thought(not me by the way:D), I don't think we can underestimate the impact of low rates at the moment is having on the market, BTL landlords who don't have to refinance are unlikely to be forced to drop rents to any significant degree, which gives all those STR's and FTB'rs food for thought, why keep renting ?

If they can buy now and fix a good deal, with a lowish LTV (especially STR's), I believe this is what they are doing, this is stopping prices falling significantly further. Sentiment is also a powerful tool, which the government and media have used to maximum effect over the last few months.

Don't get me wrong, I still feel there will not be any 2000-2007 HPI for a long time, but my feeling is that we are in a trough now, and that trough will likely last for some considerable time, (years probably), with minor +'s and -'s either way. Now I'm open to be being persuaded that I'm wrong........ so if you have a good argument, go for it.

I am suprised Ad9898, you have changed your tune.

So are you saying that these artificaily low interest rates may last longer than previously expected? So the big crash is being postponed?

What do you think of the theroy about the more prolonged the time before the crash the bigger the crash will be?