The big price falls are over.

Really2

Thrugelmir wrote: »

Define a professional landlord?

.

The kind of people who have generations of property ownership. eg professional = there profession is being a landlord.

Every town/city have some family/family's that traditionally hold a lot of the property and commercial property in a town or city.

layman's term = Rich bar stewards.

chucky

abaxas wrote: »

Having an income, when buying a house, is vastly more important than mortgage costs.

as far as i know you need to be employed or self employed to get a mortgage to buy a house unless it's a cash purchase of course - i don't understand your point.

ad9898_3

ad44downey wrote: »

Oh ye of little faith!

Wait until the cold winter months, the spring bounce will be a faint memory, unemployment will still be shooting up and house prices will continue spiralling downwards.

I do agree that IR's hold the key, the question is when ?, until rates go up the big falls are unlikely to happen, I'm intrigued to see what will happen over the autumn/winter. Don't get me wrong, I'm not turning bull, and I'm certainly not buying, I wouldn't be so stupid, but it's quite obvious at the moment that a lot of people in my position are buying, sentiment has been changed somewhat by the media over the past few months.

IMHO, if the banks were in a position to lend big money again at the minute, people would be queuing for that money, it's quite surprising that away from this board and HPC.co.uk, people seem pretty oblivious to the whole crash episode so far.

Really2

ad9898 wrote: »

, but it's quite obvious at the moment that a lot of people in my position are buying, sentiment has been changed somewhat by the media over the past few months.
.

Your spot on it is like playing chicken and very difficult to judge when is a good time to jump out of the way.

I should imagine now it may just suit peoples circumstances, some people are "Now or Never" some are "wait and see" neither are right or wrong if they are buying it for the purpose of living in.

But on the crash, have some of us read to much in to it and looked at the worse case without looking at the best case, I think any one on here is slightly pessimistic

On here

slight pessimistic = Bull
we are all fooked = Bear ( I struggled for a better one)

kennyboy66_2

ad9898 wrote: »

Ok, many of the regulars here maybe a little shocked at my stance on this, but after the Nationwide figure today, it kinda got me thinking. With the base rate set to stay low for sometime to come it is giving a lot people out there pause for thought(not me by the way:D), I don't think we can underestimate the impact of low rates at the moment is having on the market, BTL landlords who don't have to refinance are unlikely to be forced to drop rents to any significant degree, which gives all those STR's and FTB'rs food for thought, why keep renting ?

If they can buy now and fix a good deal, with a lowish LTV (especially STR's), I believe this is what they are doing, this is stopping prices falling significantly further. Sentiment is also a powerful tool, which the government and media have used to maximum effect over the last few months.

Don't get me wrong, I still feel there will not be any 2000-2007 HPI for a long time, but my feeling is that we are in a trough now, and that trough will likely last for some considerable time, (years probably), with minor +'s and -'s either way. Now I'm open to be being persuaded that I'm wrong........ so if you have a good argument, go for it.

I'd keep the faith. I am certainly no doom-monger but I find it impossible to think of a scenario where prices can rise in the next 4 to 5 years and probably much longer.

Real interest rates will have to rise - the Government will be competing for savers funds with all the borrowing that they are doing.

Sentiment can change quickly - the worst of the recession may be over, but past experience tells us that the effects last for years after the recession technically ends.

I'm convinced that this housing correction won't be that much different to the last one, arguably it should be a little worse as the peak was higher.

I'd only buy now if I felt that my job was really secure and I had a 15 - 20% deposit. Even then I'd be avoiding flat and new builds, and I'd want it to be a house that I'd be happy in for at least 7 years.
If all those things were in place I'd look widely and negotiate fiercely.

ad9898_3

Really2 wrote: »

Your spot on it is like playing chicken and very difficult to judge when is a good time to jump out of the way.

I should imagine now it may just suit peoples circumstances, some people are "Now or Never" some are "wait and see" neither are right or wrong if they are buying it for the purpose of living in.

Mmmm, it's a difficult one, I think I'm pretty on the ball financially, and I honestly wouldn't buy at the moment, even for a straight cash purchase, why ? the money saved over the next 12 months will take my daughter to Disneyland basically for free, more falls seem inevitable when you look at the shocking position our economy is in, it's just not happening at this time, probably for the reasons I stated in my OP.

It's a bit like Wylie coyote in Roadrunner when he runs off the cliff, he should obviously fall straight away, yet miraculously and against all logic, he keeps running on thin air until he realises hes fooked, then he plunges to his doom.

In this analogy, The 'cliff ' is the economy, and Wylie is the 'housing market'.

Thrugelmir

kennyboy66 wrote: »

Real interest rates will have to rise - the Government will be competing for savers funds with all the borrowing that they are doing.

The Building Societies are already suffering a net outflow of funds as they have to compete with both retail banks and the nationalised loan books for depositors funds, and the fact that people are repaying debt.

In reverse to the credit bubble we are now seeing credit deflation. The question has to be asked will another financial institution go bust?

We have insufficent savings in this country to counter borrowings.

Really2

ad9898 wrote: »

In this analogy, The 'cliff ' is the economy, and Wylie is the 'housing market'.

Current perfomance is a new device suplied by ACME.

I think personaly if I was looking to buy I would wait until fixed IR rates are near 3 month libor. That will be some indication that lending is somewere near normal.(basicaly the end of the financial mess) But as we all know I am a bit of a risk taker so I never take my own advice.

I don't think this is the bottom i went for 30% which seemed like an age ago now (it's nearly a year:eek:)

Radiantsoul

I always thought the idea that prices would collapse by 40% this year were utterly fanciful. On the other hand I am surprised the market seems to have stabilised so early. I felt that falls of 2% per month were obviously not going to contineu forever. But I am surprised rates seem to be moving upwards.

My feeling is that prices are probably still slightly too high, but it is entirely possible and likely that the propensity to consume income on housing in the UK has risen. This means that prices might not fall to their longterm "natural" affordability levels.

mbga9pgf

30-35% total drops on average across the market is what I am going for. depending upon cuts post-election though, it could go up as high as 50% from peak if the conservatives take a sickle to the civil service. Which I am pretty hopeful of.