Sharp contraction for UK economy

luvpump

http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/business/8125898.stm


http://news.sky.com/skynews/Home/Business/UK-Economy-Shrinks-At-Fastest-Pace-In-Half-A-Century-In-First-Quarter-Of-2009-Say-ONS-Figures/Article/200906415324450?lpos=Business_First_Buisness_Article_Teaser_Region_1&lid=ARTICLE_15324450_UK_Economy_Shrinks_At_Fastest_Pace_In_Half_A_Century_In_First_Quarter_Of_2009_Say_ONS_Figures


A Sound Basis for a Recovery in the Housing Market ! :rolleyes: .. Dont believe the Hype people.. Property has a way to fall yet, & dont let anyone tell (con) you differantly ..

MrDT

Weren't we expecting to pull out of the recession upon release of the latest stats? I'm sure the bulls were going on that all was rosy, we'd had 2 positive months and one more would put an end to it?

Guess what? It's not all sunshine and smiles:

Cannon_Fodder

The UK economy contracted 2.4% in the first quarter of 2009, its biggest quarterly decline in 51 years, according to the latest official data. The decline was more severe than the earlier estimate of a 1.9% fall, and worse than analyst expectations.

It also said the recession started earlier than first thought last year.

The ONS now says the recession began during the second quarter of 2008 rather than during July to September, so that the recession has now been running for a whole year.

The ONS said economic output shrank 4.9% during the first quarter of 2009 compared with the first quarter of 2008, the biggest year-on-year fall on record.





Starting earlier and being deeper than first thought, could actually be good reasons for the next figures to be better than expected...

From such a low base, there just HAS to be some upward movement...?

Cannon_Fodder

From the Sky piece;

"The figures also showed the current recession began earlier than expected, with a 0.1% decline seen between April and June last year compared with previous estimates of zero growth."

I always said that 0% was a magically lucky piece of rounding...

StevieJ

MrDT wrote: »

Weren't we expecting to pull out of the recession upon release of the latest stats? I'm sure the bulls were going on that all was rosy, we'd had 2 positive months and one more would put an end to it?

Guess what? It's not all sunshine and smiles:

Tell you what the Q2 figures should be out soon, wait for them shall we

Rochdale_Pioneers

Exactly. I don't doubt the Q1 bleakness for a second. Doesn't mean that every month forever will be the same - I remain under the mysterious impression that various posters want the recession to be as long and deep as possible for political reasons.

abaxas

Rochdale_Pioneers wrote: »

Exactly. I don't doubt the Q1 bleakness for a second. Doesn't mean that every month forever will be the same - I remain under the mysterious impression that various posters want the recession to be as long and deep as possible for political reasons.

I'll translate this for people who might not understand..

"Our economy is built on sound fundamentals" (c) G Brown up to 2007.

MrDT

StevieJ wrote: »

Tell you what the Q2 figures should be out soon, wait for them shall we

Ah, schoolboy error, thought this would be the much anticipated q2 release, what with it being talked about so much last week, and today being the end of the second quarter and all..

That'll teach me for scan reading and posting up a pretty graph without thinking!

Rochdale_Pioneers

abaxas wrote: »

I'll translate this for people who might not understand..

"Our economy is built on sound fundamentals" (c) G Brown up to 2007.

Also (c) D Cameron et al. Don't forget Cameron's impassioned speeches bemoaning Brown the "Great Regulator" who was choking the city's enterprising spirit with too much regulation. And Redwood's recommendations that the best way to run the morgage market during its 125% phase was to let it entirely self regulate.

Thrugelmir

Rochdale_Pioneers wrote: »

Also (c) D Cameron et al. Don't forget Cameron's impassioned speeches bemoaning Brown the "Great Regulator" who was choking the city's enterprising spirit with too much regulation. And Redwood's recommendations that the best way to run the morgage market during its 125% phase was to let it entirely self regulate.

(D) G. Brown - Prudence. The ability to move Government borrowing as a % of GDP in any direction depending on the projected tax revenues generated by the Governments increased investment spend in the economy using money that the nation doesn't actually have other than borrowing it from abroad without ever cutting services. Or alternatively known as the theory of eradicating boom or bust.

mbga9pgf

More interesting is to note that house prices were still falling in 1995, well into the rebound phase.

I still stick by my 6% GDP contraction as a baseline. I think it could be closer to 8, if things get really tough post-election, we could see 10%.