Irish economy seen shrinking 9.1 pct in GDP

inspector_monkfish

09:32 30Jun09 ECONOMISTS SEE IRISH Q1 GDP SHRINKING 9.1 PCT YR/YR, Q1 GNP DOWN 9.8 PCT YR/YR
09:33 30Jun09 PREVIEW-Irish economy seen shrinking 9.1 pct in GDP

DUBLIN, June 30 - The Irish economy is expected to have dug deeper into recession with a forecast 9.1 percent annual contraction in the first quarter, a Reuters survey showed on Tuesday.
Ireland will publish data on its gross domestic product for January-March at 1000 GMT. The median forecast in a Reuters poll of nine economists was for a fall of 9.1 percent compared with an annual drop of 7.5 percent in the preceding quarter.

The former "Celtic Tiger" economy is projected to be the worst performer in the industrialised world this year with a 9.8 percent plunge in GDP according to the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) as a local property crash and global recession bite. [ID:nPAB007741]

Economists polled by Reuters forecast a 9.8 percent fall in Gross National Product (GNP) in the first quarter compared with a 6.7 percent drop in the fourth quarter from a year ago.

GNP is seen as a more accurate measure of the performance of the Irish economy because it excludes profits earned by multinationals who have a big presence in Ireland.

purch

There is only one thing to add.................:eek:

halight

Is that the bigist drop a country has had in its GDP so far?

Degenerate

halight wrote: »

Is that the bigist drop a country has had in its GDP so far?

I believe that honour belongs to Latvia.

Generali

halight wrote: »

Is that the bigist drop a country has had in its GDP so far?

Good question.

Outside of war (esp civil war or invasion) which doesn't count IMO, the US dropping about 30% in the 1930-33 period must be close to a record for any major industrialised country. There is perhaps a chance that a small Eurpoean country could match that now (Ireland for example) but it's not that likely.

StevieJ

I am glad we are not in the Euro :eek:

Generali

StevieJ wrote: »

I am glad we are not in the Euro :eek:

Yeah, being Irish now is kinda like being oop north in the latter stages of the early 80s recession - monetary and fiscal policy isn't being set for your benefit and by crikey does it hurt!!!

halight

Generali wrote: »

Good question.

Outside of war (esp civil war or invasion) which doesn't count IMO, the US dropping about 30% in the 1930-33 period must be close to a record for any major industrialised country. There is perhaps a chance that a small Eurpoean country could match that now (Ireland for example) but it's not that likely.

If say German Gdp droped by say 10% or even 30% what would be the outcome for the other countrys in the euro? Would it pull them down too?

Plus will Irelands GDP falling by 10% will that have an effect on the other euro countrys?

Generali

halight wrote: »

If say German Gdp droped by say 10% or even 30% what would be the outcome for the other countrys in the euro? Would it pull them down too?

Plus will Irelands GDP falling by 10% will that have an effect on the other euro countrys?

If Germany's GDP drops dramatically then she is likely to import less as local incomes drop which will have an impact on all trading partners, not just those in the Euro.

The same can be said for Ireland only less so because Ireland's economy is smaller so has less impact on outsiders, but....................

The unique thing about the Euro is that it is a currency with a significant political risk - it's unlikely that California will break away from the USA or that Surrey will leave the Pound but there is a real chance that a Sovereign country will decide to leave the Euro.

If a country quits, what happens to it's soveriegn and corporate debt - is it still priced in Euro or will it be repriced into the local currency? How would you feel if you bought Euro debt and ended up with Irish pounds or whatever? I'd be pretty miffed, personally.

purch

Luckily under the rules of the Devonian School of Economics, if GDP in 2010 is minus 9% they will in the midst of a huge boom !!!!

StevieJ

Generali wrote: »

If a country quits, what happens to it's soveriegn and corporate debt - is it still priced in Euro or will it be repriced into the local currency? How would you feel if you bought Euro debt and ended up with Irish pounds or whatever? I'd be pretty miffed, personally.

Then again the asset prices are likely to collapse in Sterling value, a nice villa in Spain anyone ?