Market turned?

mystic_trev

poppysarah wrote: »

Madoff has got 150 yrs for the ponzi scheme he ran. what's Gordon going to get?

Probably a Knighthood :mad:

Scabs

zcacmxi wrote: »

Insight101 - Completely agree. If location & price are right, there are plenty of examples of houses selling very quickly.

Scabs, the 400K 3 bed-semi is the top end of the market in a conservation area. It is not first time buyer material. The type of buyers living in this area are usually 3rd/4th time buyers that have built up a significant proportion of equity, so are not borrowing multiples of salary with minimum deposit!

The 1st time buyer flats in the area are around 200K. 20K deposit, and 180K mortgage would require 4x a joint salary of 45K. Even a couple of teachers are getting that now.

So you have to have a joint salary of 45K to buy a first time buyer flat, what if one partner loses their job or decides to have a baby then they are stuffed.
There are loads of people under the average wage far less than 45k combined income, what happens to these people?. So what you are saying is you have to earn as much or more than a qualified teacher to buy a small box flat to get on the ladder(or snake). House inflation is no way near reality, 200k for a first time buyer flat says it all.

Scabs

zcacmxi wrote: »

Looking at the Nationwide HPI figures only, after 16 months of consecutive falls since November 2007, now we are seeing:

March 2009: + 0.9%
April 2009: -0.4%
May 2009: +1.2%
Jun 2009: +0.9%
Overall for 4 months: +2.6%

These are national figures too, and Nationwide have already indicated regional variations. I think the Greater London area has probably seen nearer to 5%.

People should realise that the falls were going to end at some point. Boom/Bust/Boom/Bust!

This should be the time of year when sales rocket however the sales volume is tiny so where are all the buyers?. This is the spring bounce but sales have certainly not bounced.
People are losing their jobs, personal and public debt is huge, repos are happening all over. The HPI can not boom again this time around but if price start rising then interest rates will have to go up and again it will be the same outcome (further price falls).
I agree falls will end at some point but now is too soon unless you know something we dont or is quantative easing working? sorry I dont think so.

Lotus-eater

Dinah93 wrote: »

I can't see why they would end now though with mortgage rates rising, unemployment rising, job insecurity increasing as a result, the market continuing to contract and so on. If mortgage rates were going down and unemployment was decreasing, I'd get why they would rise, but with the economy the way it is I can't see many people choosing to stretch themselves when they know its going to be more expensive in the short term.

I find most people struggle to see past the end of their nose, or at the most, next month.

It's all getting better, green shoots are everywhere, prices will be going up now, houses are moving and selling and interest rates are low, the papers mostly say so, the tv mostly says so, sure there are doom mongers out there, but there always are.

Also I feel very sorry for waiting FTB'rs, you've no experience in the market, you've never bought before, you've been waiting not being able to afford a house, suddenly houses may just be in your price range. Do you wait and risk being priced out again, the way you have been the last few years, after all this is all you know, the evidence has passed before your eyes, houses are very expensive, an investment, countless people have done it.
Or do you buy now, when (to you) they look cheap?

I think this spring bounce is people like this buying, also established well off house owners buying that bigger property they have had their eye on for a few years, but couldn't afford it, not too worried if it goes further down because they plan to be there 20 years.

Mortgage rates increasing will gradually force this to thin down, then we will have lower volumes and people will be struggling to sell again. All IMHO

siliconbits

The good ol' days are back guys... My wife loves a house, on which we originally put a £125K offer, to bits. EA told me to up the bid to £127K, then to £128K and finally today to £130K because someone else did it. Back in 2007, it was purchased for £135K.

siliconbits

Lotus-eater wrote: »

I find most people struggle to see past the end of their nose, or at the most, next month.

It's all getting better, green shoots are everywhere, prices will be going up now, houses are moving and selling and interest rates are low, the papers mostly say so, the tv mostly says so, sure there are doom mongers out there, but there always are.

Also I feel very sorry for waiting FTB'rs, you've no experience in the market, you've never bought before, you've been waiting not being able to afford a house, suddenly houses may just be in your price range. Do you wait and risk being priced out again, the way you have been the last few years, after all this is all you know, the evidence has passed before your eyes, houses are very expensive, an investment, countless people have done it.
Or do you buy now, when (to you) they look cheap?

I think this spring bounce is people like this buying, also established well off house owners buying that bigger property they have had their eye on for a few years, but couldn't afford it, not too worried if it goes further down because they plan to be there 20 years.

Mortgage rates increasing will gradually force this to thin down, then we will have lower volumes and people will be struggling to sell again. All IMHO

Exactly where I am right now!!!!

zcacmxi

Rollerball wrote: »

Buddy, have you never heard of the 'spring bounce.'?

It might not be what you want to hear if you are short a house. But this year things are better than last year. Why was there no "spring bounce" last year? But this year there is? Compare the Nationwide figures for last Spring with this Spring:

March 2008: - 1.1%
April 2008: -2.5%
May 2008: -0.9%
Jun 2008: -1.7%
Overall for 4 months: -6.2%

Face the facts. This year the housing market is not as bad as last year. Back to my original post, market is turning!

zcacmxi

Rollerball wrote: »

...... This year is more normal hence the spring bounce.

Although it's difficult for you to accept, probably because you have a vested interest in prices falling further, I'm pleased that you acknowledge that this year is different, in your words "more normal".

I'n not an agent, and therefore have no interest in "ramping". It's you that wants to buy a house for cheaper, and will be on here trying to talk them down.

zcacmxi

One year on.....
It looks like this time last year I/we were right about a turn in the market. We more or less saw them continue to rise month on month since my original post last year..

Now for the past couple of months we have seen a slow down again. In my area I can see houses selling, but also prices falling..

What are others seeing?

Doozergirl

I'm not really sure. In my area, I think that vendors are more willing to compromise so places are definitely still going under offer after not too long on the market. We're also really not very far off peak prices, we were certainly down about 15% at one point; I think everyone expects a bit of money off aasking prices, asking prices are more reasoned than they were and people appreciate that the discounts work up the chain. There is a lot more on the market than there was last year although there are still some houses that were for sale three years ago!!

There certainly isn't the stand-off that there was 18months-2years ago. Doesn't time fly?! I think we'll carry on wobbling around for a while.