Can the housing market survive...

Graham_Devon

Really2 wrote: »

So they are coming back even when prices are higher and require massive deposits.

Like I said once they stabilize and deposits drop you will have a hell of a lot more FTBers in the market

FTBers are not out of the market they are waiting the same as any other market when they hit value the market will start to recover and transactions will increase.

This is not PRO HPI by the way i am just thinking through the prosses logicaly and FTB will come back to the market if falls ar nominal or in real terms when they can afford to buy.

Yes, thats fair enough. And pretty obvious.

But what about the rest of the original post? All the stumbling blocks that will hit at some point? Are you factoring them in?

If all of those factors were not sitting there down the road, I woudl agree with what you are saying, but we are on the course to hit these stumbling blocks, we don't quite know when, all we do know is we will hit them.

Or do you think we can avoid them somehow? If so, how?

ess0two

Plenty of threads in house buying forum,about ftb's buying or wanting to buy.

Thrugelmir

Really2 wrote: »

But in 25+ years time they will be rent free and could still sell the house.

I think we have to accept there will be some HPI from todays prices in 25 year + time.

Even it there is not and they live to an average age what have they lost seeing they wont be paying rent?

At 3% HPI it would take 10 years to recover the lost equity alone.

Idiophreak

Not sure the OP really stacks up for me.

There are people around with the means to buy and now isn't a terrible time to buy for a lot of people: interest rates are reasonably low at the minute, asking prices have dropped a little and there are plenty of schemes around to encourage FTBs to get on the ladder.

That's why I bought recently...sure, it would be nicer to buy when the job market was a little more stable, but if you keep waiting for "the perfect time", it may never happen.

Thrugelmir

Really2 wrote: »

So they are coming back even when prices are higher and require massive deposits.

Like I said once they stabilize and deposits drop you will have a hell of a lot more FTBers in the market

FTBers are not out of the market they are waiting the same as any other market when they hit value the market will start to recover and transactions will increase.

This is not PRO HPI by the way i am just thinking through the prosses logicaly and FTB will come back to the market if falls ar nominal or in real terms when they can afford to buy.

Prices have fallen, haven't they

Some people will have saved deposits or been saving. As prices fall then less deposit is required.

Remember a lot of FTB's are in fact STR's.

Where are the real FTB's ? Only time will disclose this.

Thrugelmir

Idiophreak wrote: »

Not sure the OP really stacks up for me.

There are people around with the means to buy and now isn't a terrible time to buy for a lot of people: interest rates are reasonably low at the minute, asking prices have dropped a little and there are plenty of schemes around to encourage FTBs to get on the ladder.

That's why I bought recently...sure, it would be nicer to buy when the job market was a little more stable, but if you keep waiting for "the perfect time", it may never happen.

I guess that you've locked into a reasonable fixed rate mortgage. If rates were higher say at 7% would you bought or waited awhile longer?

Idiophreak

Thrugelmir wrote: »

I guess that you've locked into a reasonable fixed rate mortgage. If rates were higher say at 7% would you bought or waited awhile longer?

Rather depends on a number of things, I guess.
Is it 7% and rising, or 7% and falling?

Have the asking prices dropped further due to the higher interest rates...

etc etc

Point is, all these things combine to give you a feeling of whether it's a good time to buy...can't just look at a single point in isolation.

And yeah, I got on 4.3 something fixed for a few years, which I know is way more than some people on here are paying, but over the course of most mortgages the average rate is, what? 10%? so it's not a bad place to start.

Thrugelmir

Idiophreak wrote: »

Rather depends on a number of things, I guess.
Is it 7% and rising, or 7% and falling?

Have the asking prices dropped further due to the higher interest rates...

etc etc

Point is, all these things combine to give you a feeling of whether it's a good time to buy...can't just look at a single point in isolation.

And yeah, I got on 4.3 something fixed for a few years, which I know is way more than some people on here are paying, but over the course of most mortgages the average rate is, what? 10%? so it's not a bad place to start.

7% and rising. Interest rates are only heading one way in the next few years.

I meant same price but at a 7% interest rate. Would that have affected your decision to buy now.

Idiophreak

Thrugelmir wrote: »

I meant same price but at a 7% interest rate. Would that have affected your decision to buy now.

Of course...it would have changed the affordabiility of the thing. 99% I don't care about the *actual price* of the place, I care about whether I can afford it month to month...And, in this particular instance, being my first place, how the cost compares to renting - if the interest rate were to rise to the extent that renting was the cheaper option, obviously that would put a different spin on things...

Graham_Devon

Idiophreak wrote: »

Of course...it would have changed the affordabiility of the thing. 99% I don't care about the *actual price* of the place, I care about whether I can afford it month to month...And, in this particular instance, being my first place, how the cost compares to renting - if the interest rate were to rise to the extent that renting was the cheaper option, obviously that would put a different spin on things...

Right, well thats what my OP is about

What is going to happen. And what you say would put you off WILL happen.