BoE rate meeting

alared

DAK the date of the April BoE rate meeting?

YorkshireBoy

Wed/Thurs this week. Forthcoming dates here...

http://www.bankofengland.co.uk/monetarypolicy/decisions.htm

alared

Not likely to be any change would you think?

meanmachine_2

Current thinking:

No change in April.

If a cut is going to happen it will be in May. Highly unlikely now.

Markets pricing in .25% rise by end of year/beginning 2007.

But who knows? At the top of the year the "experts" were predicting rates at 4% by now.

It all depends on oil, and how that affects prices, plus what foreign markets ae doing, particuarly Japan.

But the chances of a cut now are virtually zero.

Possibly, the era of cheap money is at an end, and a return to average rates is in the offing.

Or possibly not...

lisyloo

I read somewhere that all 42 economists surveyed expected rates to stay on hold.
Further more, no rises expected for the next 9 months of the year.

lisyloo

But the chances of a cut now are virtually zero.

I wouldn't go as far as that.
The "shadow" MPC voted 5-4 to keep rates on hold last month.
4 voted for a cut.
That seems a bit more than "virtually zero" to me.

But I still think it's gonna be very dull for the rest of the year.

Milarky

lisyloo wrote:

I wouldn't go as far as that.
The "shadow" MPC voted 5-4 to keep rates on hold last month.
4 voted for a cut.
That seems a bit more than "virtually zero" to me.

But I still think it's gonna be very dull for the rest of the year.

Who are they then?

http://www.bankofengland.co.uk/publications/minutes/mpc/pdf/2006/mpc0603.pdf

29 The Governor invited the Committee to vote on the proposition that the repo rate should be maintained at 4.5%. Eight members of the Committee (the Governor, Rachel Lomax, John Gieve, Kate Barker, Charles Bean, Richard Lambert, Paul Tucker and David Walton) voted in favour. Stephen Nickell voted against, preferring a reduction in the repo rate of 25 basis points.

30 The following members of the Committee were present:
Mervyn King, Governor Rachel Lomax, Deputy Governor responsible for monetary policy John Gieve, Deputy Governor responsible for financial stability
Kate Barker
Charles Bean
Richard Lambert
Stephen Nickell
Paul Tucker
David Walton
Jon Cunliffe was present as the Treasury representative.

free4440273

if they were truly independent, and the governor was astute - he would raise rates asap. nobody seems to have learnt their lessons - housing market up again, credit card debt up also, people having neglible savings. interest rates should go up by one percentage point. they won't obviously...don't want to upset the cbi do we???

Milarky

Just come across them here:

http://www.economicsuk.com/blog/000307.html

(The usual suspects methinks - Ruth Lea in particular. If they were that good they'd be on the MPC. Also there seems to be a second 'shadow MPC' panel run by the Sunday Times)

alared

"Experts" are saying because of the price of oil coupled with higher gas and electricity,inflation will soon be running at 2.5%
With the seasonal bubbling of the housing market and industry in better shape than at any time the past year,an increase could be more on the cards than a cut in the future.

meanmachine_2

lisyloo wrote:

I wouldn't go as far as that.
The "shadow" MPC voted 5-4 to keep rates on hold last month.
4 voted for a cut.
That seems a bit more than "virtually zero" to me.

But I still think it's gonna be very dull for the rest of the year.

On the contrary, I think there's a chance it'll all get very exciting by the end of the year.

I'd keep an eye on Japan.

By the way the "shadow" MPC voted to cut rates last month, so have lost a lot of credibility recently.

Same goes for Capital Economics. Wasn't the great Bootle saying rates would now be 3.5%, and that house prices would be falling?

What a chump.