Sunday Times - BOE to hike rates this year ??

StevieJ

Graham_Devon wrote: »

Queries?

Wheres the query?

I'm obviously not bothering with the "why not".

Why not

ad9898_3

Really2 wrote: »

Not may on here will be happy about the lack of hyper inflation

I'm not sure if people were really advocating hyperinflation, if they were, I'm sure they don't really know what it means. Hyperinflation would be something like 10% +......per day, not 10-20% YoY.

Graham_Devon wrote: »

A lot of this also depends on where oil is going, as that has the potential to hit inflation hard this summer again.

Petrol is only 20p/litre on average less than last summer, yet oil is 50% down, someone is coining it in somewhere, and it's not the motorist. I don't see oil hitting last summer's high for quite sometime, as world demand is still depressed, but make no bones about it, when demand rises, so will the price, I've said it many times, 85 million barrels a day is pretty much the ceiling, no more can or will likely ever be pumped, give or take 5 million barrels. This will hit inflation at some point in the short to medium term, and so interest rates as the world economy tries to pick up.

Really2 wrote: »

Hype. oil is no where near last years cost in £ terms (and won't be as high as summer last year)

See my response to Graham's quote , it won't come this summer, but just as night follows day, it is on the horizon and is inexorably coming toward us, there is no excaping it.

Really2

ad9898 wrote: »

I'm not sure if people were really advocating hyperinflation, if they were, I'm sure they don't really know what it means. Hyperinflation would be something like 10% +......per day, not 10-20% YoY.



Petrol is only 20p/litre on average less than last summer, yet oil is 50% down, someone is coining it in somewhere, and it's not the motorist. I don't see oil hitting last summer's high for quite sometime, as world demand is still depressed, but make no bones about it, when demand rises, so will the price, I've said it many times, 85 million barrels a day is pretty much the ceiling, no more can or will likely ever be pumped give or take 5 million barrels. This will hit inflation, and so interest rates as the world economy tries to pick up.



See my response to Graham's quote , it won't come this summer, but just as night follows day, it is on the horizon and is inexorably coming toward us, there is no excaping it.

Well I think oil is a bit like IR's at the moment it only had one way to go afte Christmas just when and where it goes up to is the unknown.

I think at the moement oil is around a normal cost level, It is not really high in reality earlier this year it was bellow cost.

inspector_monkfish

Graham_Devon wrote: »

A lot of this also depends on where oil is going, as that has the potential to hit inflation hard this summer again.

We know rates will go back up, they cannot stay this low too long.

When they do go back up, depending on how the rises are executed, we could see a lot of misery.

I think it's unwise to suggest rates "can't" go up quick. How many would have suggested they could drop to the level they have as quick as they did! 1.5% drop one month!

i never said they "can't" go up quick....

inspector_monkfish

Really2 wrote: »

Hype. oil is no where near last years cost in £ terms (and won't be as high as summer last year)
It is only petrol that is high but still not as high as last year have a look a diesel, that as a bearing on COGS not petrol.

at its peak last summer, in some places Diesel was around 14p dearer than Unleaded Petrol

Now its only 2 or 3p more expensive

ad9898_3

Really2 wrote: »

I think at the moement oil is around a normal cost level, It is not really high in reality earlier this year it was bellow cost.

I agree, my thoughts are looking toward the future though, when oil will again spike on the back of demand, there is little demand at this time, with the world economy in it's present state. To put some perspective on this situation, before the economic meltdown and before oil went through the roof last year, so I'm talking summer 2007, its was forecast that we would need 110+ million barrels a day come 2025, the world might need it but they won't get it.

The Saudi's pumped approx 9 million a day at peak in 2008, so the world has to find another 25 million barrels a day or 2.5 new Saudi Arabia'a in the next 15-20 years. Seeing as peak world discovery was in 1960, may I suggest they have two hopes............

Bob Hope and No Hope.

1echidna

ad9898 wrote: »

I agree, my thoughts are looking toward the future though, when oil will again spike on the back of demand, there is little demand at this time, with the world economy in it's present state. To put some perspective on this situation, before the economic meltdown and before oil went through the roof last year, so I'm talking summer 2007, its was forecast that we would need 110+ million barrels a day come 2025, the world might need it but they won't get it.

The Saudi's pumped approx 9 million a day at peak in 2008, so the world has to find another 25 million barrels a day or 2.5 new Saudi Arabia'a in the next 15-20 years. Seeing as peak world discovery was in 1960, may I suggest they have two hopes............

Bob Hope and No Hope.

Who is forecasting oil demand of 110MBPD come 2025? Things have to change with regard to CO2 emissions. Also on that sort of time scale biofuels will be much more to the fore. True transportation fuels may be more expensive but the end of civilisation as we know it, I doubt.

ad9898_3

1echidna wrote: »

Also on that sort of time scale biofuels will be much more to the fore. True transportation fuels may be more expensive but the end of civilisation as we know it, I doubt.

I'm not going to go into all this again, it's been done to death, and the thread is going off topic, but biofuels will not be the answer, people still need to eat and the amount of land required to keep up with current demand, would be pretty much most of the world's productive agricultural land. I don't mean to be mean to folk on here, but please research the facts regarding this particular subject before commenting, there are many, many good books out there that will paint the picture, forgive me if I sound patronising, I'm not, I'm being sincere, it's just easy to be taken the wrong way on a forum.


Edit........ anyway, back on topic, my thoughts are the BoE base rate will be under 3% for at least 12 months, although in lending terms to individuals, it's becoming irrelevant.

chewmylegoff

ad9898 wrote: »

Petrol is only 20p/litre on average less than last summer, yet oil is 50% down, someone is coining it in somewhere, and it's not the motorist.

that's because duty on petrol is effectively 63.25p (55p x 1.15 to account for VAT on fuel duty), so whilst oil may halve, you would only expect petrol to fall by approx 25% from its 125p peak.

TDS_2

inspector_monkfish wrote: »

at its peak last summer, in some places Diesel was around 14p dearer than Unleaded Petrol

Now its only 2 or 3p more expensive

Why is this?