UK Unemployment falls by less than expected

Cannon_Fodder

kennyboy66 wrote: »

One reason that the fall in employment being the highest or 2nd highest ever is that there are about 5-6 million extra people employed in the UK compared with the early 1980's.

The ecomonic migrants is an interesting one, but where are they going to go ?

Arguably we could expect more immigration from say Ireland.

Agree with the relative totals changing since the 80s, but had supposed that the "carnage" of the 80s would bring it back into the "Top Spot"...

But that doesn't explain why the claimant count has gone up by such a small number in comparison to last quarter, when this period has beaten that in terms of jobs lost/pure unemployment...232,000 = 77,000 a month, and only 39,000 bother to claim in one month when in the other months 25% extra did...? Is it just 'summer', people being honest...?!


Re economic migrants;




Its been an awfully good time for Poles to be taking their Sterling and running back home as wealthy people...

ruggedtoast

I know a lot of people who cant find work. None of them are eligible for unemployment benefit for various reasons.

One of my colleagues advertised for an admin assistant job last month, they'd usually expect a dozen or so applications. They received almost 200 application forms.

I agree this isnt about bull vs bears. Its about accurately representing life in Britain for the people who live here. Not what suitrs G. Brown's Wonderful World of Fantasy (soon to be a Disney ride)

dopester

ruggedtoast wrote: »

One of my colleagues advertised for an admin assistant job last month, they'd usually expect a dozen or so applications. They received almost 200 application forms.

It is partly that which worries me about people who don't still don't see STR as a good option... harder to secure even a minimum-wage job - and with deflation the minimum wage as it stands is also going to put a lot of people out of work, and reduce job opportunities - sadly.

It is a shame people don't have the mind capacity to understand how actions cause certain reactions over a period of time - and with that I include boom to bust of the minimum wage.

A monopolistic wage rate that is 20 percent too high for prevailing conditions would generate still more unemployment when deflation raises the value of money.

lemonjelly

Issues such as partners working, and tax credits will reduce the appearance of the claimant figures.

There are also a lot of (especially younger people) who can't be "bothered" to claim, and will sponge off parents.

A lot of people are looking at the situation, and are thinking they'll struggle to find work short term, so are looking at studying as an alternative - school/college leavers are more likely to go to university, take out student loans & hope the market has recovered in 3 or 4 years time on graduation. I know someone who works in a college & they had an open day the other weekend. The amount of people turning up to enrol was up 300% compared to the same time last year. People in full time education will get EMA or ALG, & won't qualify for benefits included in this type of count.

Historically, Further education establishments tend to do OK in times of economic downturn.

lemonjelly

ruggedtoast wrote: »

I know a lot of people who cant find work. None of them are eligible for unemployment benefit for various reasons.

One of my colleagues advertised for an admin assistant job last month, they'd usually expect a dozen or so applications. They received almost 200 application forms.

I agree this isnt about bull vs bears. Its about accurately representing life in Britain for the people who live here. Not what suitrs G. Brown's Wonderful World of Fantasy (soon to be a Disney ride)

The Black Country Living Museum advertised for 6 seasonal posts recently, to work at the museum for about 6 months. They had I believe almost 500 applicants.

ruggedtoast

Applicants up. Green shoots!

Seriously though. Most employers response to so many apps is "oh Im paying too much for this role". Salaries go down. Deflation. Brown borrows even more to encourage inflation. Taxes go up, but people dont earn as much to pay them.

I dont think this recession is about to end suddenly for the average person.

zappahey

Graham_Devon wrote: »

To be honest, I can't blame them. Job centres are horrible places. Not because of the place itself, but the people hanging around in them I'm sorry to say.

I know public servants aren't well-respected on this board but, really, that's a bit harsh.

kennyboy66_2

Cannon_Fodder wrote: »

Agree with the relative totals changing since the 80s, but had supposed that the "carnage" of the 80s would bring it back into the "Top Spot"...

But that doesn't explain why the claimant count has gone up by such a small number in comparison to last quarter, when this period has beaten that in terms of jobs lost/pure unemployment...232,000 = 77,000 a month, and only 39,000 bother to claim in one month when in the other months 25% extra did...? Is it just 'summer', people being honest...?!

.

I suspect that the ILO measure of a quarterly increase of 232k may be more like
95k, 80k, 57k for each but its a pure guesstimate to tie that in with the claimant count.

geoffky

I get the feeling at the moment that people are just wishing this recession away and think it will go away if they do not think about it too often..
A lot of us on here are more politically and financially aware than joe the plumber but we still have the over by christmas people on here who have a greater grasp on whats going on.

so the average person on the street is going to be in for a hell of a shock when things start turning for the worse than they are now on a much greater scale ...it reminds me of the people who pay minimum payments on their credit cards and say that they are paying the credit card bill..
Is it denail or just plain lack of awarness? i do wonder..

kennyboy66_2

lemonjelly wrote: »

Issues such as partners working, and tax credits will reduce the appearance of the claimant figures.

There are also a lot of (especially younger people) who can't be "bothered" to claim, and will sponge off parents.

A lot of people are looking at the situation, and are thinking they'll struggle to find work short term, so are looking at studying as an alternative - school/college leavers are more likely to go to university, take out student loans & hope the market has recovered in 3 or 4 years time on graduation. I know someone who works in a college & they had an open day the other weekend. The amount of people turning up to enrol was up 300% compared to the same time last year. People in full time education will get EMA or ALG, & won't qualify for benefits included in this type of count.

Historically, Further education establishments tend to do OK in times of economic downturn.

As everyone was has enough NI payments can claim JSA, I don't know why people wouldn't claim. £60 a week or whatever.

Those who don't are probably burying their head in the sand.