UK Unemployment falls by less than expected

inspector_monkfish

09:30 17Jun09 UK MAY ADJ JOBLESS CLAIMANTS +39300 AT 4.8% OF WORKFORCE

09:30 17Jun09 UK MAY ADJ JOBLESS CLAIMANTS WAS FORECAST AT +65000

09:30 17Jun09 UK MAY ADJ CLAIMANT RATE WAS FORECAST AT 4.9%

09:30 17Jun09 UK ILO 3 MOS TO APR UNEMPLOYMENT +232000, 7.2% RATE

09:30 17Jun09 UK 3 MOS TO APR AVERAGE EARNINGS +2.7%

09:30 17Jun09 UK 3 MOS TO APR AVG EARNINGS WAS FORECAST AT +2.8%

09:30 17Jun09 UK MAY RISE IN CLAIMANT COUNT LOWEST SINCE JULY 2008

09:39 17Jun09 Rise In UK Claimant Count Jobless Eases In May

Rise In UK Claimant Count Jobless Eases In May



LONDON--The increase in the claimant count measure of U.K. unemployment slowed significantly in May, offering fresh evidence that the worst of the recession has past, official data showed Wednesday.

The Office for National Statistics reported that the jobless claimant count rose 39,300 in May, compared with April's downwardly revised 49,600 increase.

May's increase was much less than the 65,000 rise seen by economists and was the lowest since July 2008. The claimant count moved higher for the 15th month in a row, however, pushing the overall claimant count to 1.54 million, its highest level since July 1997.

The claimant count jobless rate rose to 4.8% in May from a downwardly revised 4.6% in April. It was last higher in October 1997.

Unemployment, according to the International Labor Organization measure, rose by 232,000 to 2.26 million in the three months to April. The quarterly increase was the second highest on record.

The corresponding unemployment rate rose to 7.2%, up 0.7 percentage point from the previous three months.

Average earnings excluding bonuses was up 2.7% on an annual basis in the three months to April. That's the lowest rise since records began in 2001. It was expected to be up 2.8%.

Including bonuses, average earnings were up 0.8% from a year earlier in the three months to April. That's an increase from March's revised 0.3% decline and tops expectations of a 0.1% decline.

Graham_Devon

I have read this on the BBC, and noticed how people are now looking at the CLAIMANT count instead of the unemployment count to measure things and then saying it's less than expected, good news etc.

But, the most important bit in that article is this:
Unemployment, according to the International Labor Organization measure, rose by 232,000 to 2.26 million in the three months to April. The quarterly increase was the second highest on record.

Second highest quarterly increase on record.

I can see WHY some articles are now focusing on the claimant count instead of the actual unemployment count, but again, this is false optimism. I'm sure Gordon Brown will now also swap to this measure of unemployment and announce the tide is turning.

I suppose the good news is that it's the second highest quarterly increase and not the highest ever.

ad9898_3

I agree with Graham, its like the inflation figures, first CPI, then when that didn't give them the figure they wanted they changed to RPI, yet CPI is still above BoE target, and is likely to increase when last year's high oil price drops from the equation, also watch for RPI to go well into positive figures again when those large IR rate decreases drop out of the figures at Christmas.

Basically the best figure of any statistic is being pedaled to give a false impression. House price index is another one, earlier this month the media pedaled the Halifax figure as gospel, yet when it fell the month before, there was no mention of it, instead the Nationwide one was used.

What's the betting if Halifax/Nationwide post a drop next month it won't be mentioned, instead it will be..... 'The Land Registry posted a rise in house prices this month..... blah blah ', because they are 3 months behind, they will be the same figures as the Haliwide figures from the Spring, but of course that won't be mentioned.:rolleyes:

Cannon_Fodder

"Unemployment, according to the International Labor Organization measure, rose by 232,000 to 2.26 million in the three months to April. The quarterly increase was the second highest on record."

"The total number of people in employment for the three months to April 2009 was 29.11 million, down 271,000 over the quarter and down 399,000 over the year. This is the largest quarterly fall in the number of people in employment since comparable records began in 1971." from http://www.statistics.gov.uk/cci/nugget.asp?ID=12


Doesn't smell of falling slower than expected...worse than the 80s...!?!


Reasons for Claimant figures to be better than "expected", or compared to previous recessions?

- economic migrants returning to their country of origin (big difference compared with 80s recession, I expect)

- more short-time working and temporary factory closures, rather than lay-offs? Which is good, of course, but will it be sustainable or just delay the inevitable?


Others?

Graham_Devon

Well other reasons for claimant counts lowering would be the type of people who are now loosing their jobs.

People who will be supported by their wife / husband / partner. People who can be self sufficient for a few months, people who, quite frankly, do not need to claim but have lost their job and do not want to be associated with the whole sign on in the jobcentre thing.

To be honest, I can't blame them. Job centres are horrible places. Not because of the place itself, but the people hanging around in them I'm sorry to say.

kennyboy66_2

Graham_Devon wrote: »

I have read this on the BBC, and noticed how people are now looking at the CLAIMANT count instead of the unemployment count to measure things and then saying it's less than expected, good news etc.

But, the most important bit in that article is this:
Unemployment, according to the International Labor Organization measure, rose by 232,000 to 2.26 million in the three months to April. The quarterly increase was the second highest on record.

Second highest quarterly increase on record.

I can see WHY some articles are now focusing on the claimant count instead of the actual unemployment count, but again, this is false optimism. I'm sure Gordon Brown will now also swap to this measure of unemployment and announce the tide is turning.

I suppose the good news is that it's the second highest quarterly increase and not the highest ever.

The seasonally adjusted claimant count increased by about 80k per month each month from Oct 08 through March 2009.

I'm sorry that you seem disappointed that the last 2 months increase has averaged out at 'only' 45k per month.
I'm sure unemployment will keep on increasing for the next 18 months, but to be honest if it peaked at 2.5million rather than 3million it would be some some achievement under the circumstances.

Things are pretty bad, but they really don't seem to be getting that much worse.

StevieJ

ad9898 wrote: »

What's the betting if Halifax/Nationwide post a drop next month it won't be mentioned, instead it will be..... 'The Land Registry posted a rise in house prices this month..... blah blah ', because they are 3 months behind, they will be the same figures as the Haliwide figures from the Spring, but of course that won't be mentioned.:rolleyes:

A bit of a tip just monitor the FT housing index, the only one to include all properties

FTHPI is the only UK house price index based upon every residential property transaction in England and Wales

Down 15% from peak with the spring bounce to come

kennyboy66_2

Cannon_Fodder wrote: »

"The total number of people in employment for the three months to April 2009 was 29.11 million, down 271,000 over the quarter and down 399,000 over the year. This is the largest quarterly fall in the number of people in employment since comparable records began in 1971." from http://www.statistics.gov.uk/cci/nugget.asp?ID=12


Doesn't smell of falling slower than expected...worse than the 80s...!?!


Reasons for Claimant figures to be better than "expected", or compared to previous recessions?

- economic migrants returning to their country of origin (big difference compared with 80s recession, I expect)

- more short-time working and temporary factory closures, rather than lay-offs? Which is good, of course, but will it be sustainable or just delay the inevitable?


Others?

One reason that the fall in employment being the highest or 2nd highest ever is that there are about 5-6 million extra people employed in the UK compared with the early 1980's.

The ecomonic migrants is an interesting one, but where are they going to go ?

Arguably we could expect more immigration from say Ireland.

ad9898_3

StevieJ wrote: »

FTHPI is the only UK house price index based upon every residential property transaction in England and Wales....except it doesn't include repo's, new builds and forced transactions, which are precisely the type of properties that are going to fall the most.

There, fixed it for you Steve, I'm beginning to feel like Bill Murray, what's that movie again...:D

Graham_Devon

kennyboy66 wrote: »

The seasonally adjusted claimant count increased by about 80k per month each month from Oct 08 through March 2009.

I'm sorry that you seem disappointed that the last 2 months increase has averaged out at 'only' 45k per month.
I'm sure unemployment will keep on increasing for the next 18 months, but to be honest if it peaked at 2.5million rather than 3million it would be some some achievement under the circumstances.

Things are pretty bad, but they really don't seem to be getting that much worse.

Please, don't put words in my mouth.

I am not dissapointed in the figures. For all my time here I have pedalled stability and a life people can afford. I do not want people unemployed. This is not a personal bull vs bear type argument I am trying to make.

But, that does not mean I cannot see the difference between the claimant rate headline and the ACTUAL rate of unemployment and the sheer spin which seems to be going on in some stories.

I said the other day, we need optimism, but the kind of optimism I am seeing around at the moment appears to be on the side of dellusion and dangerous spin to say "it's all good out there".

Why does that annoy me? Simply because like myself, others will get their fingers burned. I bought into the bull hype of house prices only ever go up, buy now, buy now talk. I did buy, taking no notice of the stupid people on HPC. I got burned.

StevieJ

ad9898 wrote: »

There, fixed it for you Steve, I'm beginning to feel like Bill Murray, what's that movie again...:D

Don't worry it will come round again

BTW what don't you understand about EVERY transaction.