House Price Crash Part 2

the_ash_and_the_oak

Dan: wrote: »

So, just how high do you think IO will go? People could afford mortgage payments in 2007, and they will again when rates return to those levels.

There will always be First Time Buyers.

there will always be first time buyers.

there will be differing amounts of them in different years. some years we may see the transaction levels somewhat lower than other years. seen a little of that over the last couple of years imo

Dan:_4

the_ash_and_the_oak wrote: »

in general pretty sure the idea is that the higher the interest rate the lower the amount of capital available to a first time buyer, as the affordability from monthly salary has changed negatively for them

But this will not necessarily cause a massive crash as some like to make out.

the_ash_and_the_oak

Dan: wrote: »

But this will not necessarily cause a massive crash as some like to make out.

imo the next stage of the crash will not be through forced sales or people struggling (govt/boe policy is geared towards this preventing. and is also pretty successful so far). the next stage of the crash will be because new buyers are unable to obtain the necessary funding to support current prices.

This is why it will take much longer to unwind than many think imo - and will be much more gradual.

Many have said it would be preferable to 'get it over and done with'. not feeling this is the general aim - particularly as this would involved many losing their homes. think a gradual and incremental climbdown is the preferred aim - this also doesn't affect sentiment - which as we;ve seen so far hasn't really been affected

Harry_Powell

Really2 wrote: »

You right you are to polite. But if you are new have a look at some of the better crash, crash ,crash posters. Dopester (deflation) !!!!!! (Hyper Inflation) AD9898 for bit of everything.

I know, I've been reading a few 'back issues' to try and get into the swing of the forum. I'm actually a bonafide poster (yes, that's what they all say ) but thought I'd brighten up a dull Monday with a bit of fun 'crash crash crash' posting (that snippet was from blisk) with additions from !!!!!! (hyper inflation) and some ad9898 peak oil additions. It passed the time nicely - hope you didn't take offence

I do believe that we'll see 40% drops from peak for certain properties, but I intend just looking in my local area and judging the prices there. I have only a passing interest in national statistics - they're not really relevent to my local area.

Really2

Harry_Powell wrote: »

I know, I've been reading a few 'back issues' to try and get into the swing of the forum. I'm actually a bonafide poster (yes, that's what they all say ) but thought I'd brighten up a dull Monday with a bit of fun 'crash crash crash' posting (that snippet was from blisk) with additions from !!!!!! (hyper inflation) and some ad9898 peak oil additions. It passed the time nicely - hope you didn't take offence

I do believe that we'll see 40% drops from peak for certain properties, but I intend just looking in my local area and judging the prices there. I have only a passing interest in national statistics - they're not really relevent to my local area.

No i don't take offence i like a good debate. Hope you did not find my posts a bit strong either.

i am happy to have views swayed anytime as long as the posting is good.

Good luck with your goals:) I am sure you should be able to get 40% below on some houses but I recon that will be when the average is down about 25-30%;) (unless you have funds to buy a repo I recon you could get 50% ish now.)

StevieJ

the_ash_and_the_oak wrote: »

in general pretty sure the idea is that the higher the interest rate the lower the amount of capital available to a first time buyer, as the affordability from monthly salary has changed negatively for them

But many interest rates e.g. FTBers are not in line with base rate, so when BR goes up FTBers rate may stay the same.

JonnyBravo

Really2 wrote: »

But if you are new ....

Oh I'd have a pound he's not new.

It was his best yet til his last post..... but that confirmed it for me.

:rolleyes:

the_ash_and_the_oak

StevieJ wrote: »

But many interest rates e.g. FTBers are not in line with base rate, so when BR goes up FTBers rate may stay the same.

can't disagree w this tbf. have to say current low rates aren't really for FTBs.

not really sure that when base rate finally rises that rates for FTB's will stay static but you never know!

lostinrates

Harry_Powell wrote: »

I know, I've been reading a few 'back issues' to try and get into the swing of the forum. I'm actually a bonafide poster (yes, that's what they all say ) but thought I'd brighten up a dull Monday with a bit of fun 'crash crash crash' posting (that snippet was from blisk) with additions from !!!!!! (hyper inflation) and some ad9898 peak oil additions. It passed the time nicely - hope you didn't take offence

You seem very wicked. I might grow to quite like you

Harry_Powell

lostinrates wrote: »

You seem very wicked. I might grow to quite like you

I'll be around here for a few years yet, so plenty of time for me to grow on you. Well, until I buy and then I'll never come back due to the fear that I didn't buy at the bottom of the market and hear resounding 'told you so's' ringing in my ears.