House Price Crash Part 2

Really2

Harry_Powell wrote: »

Fine by me because deflation will have the largest impact on people's largest asset - their homes. I win both ways!

Crash, crash, crash!

Wow so you dont belive any of it just want it....

I won't do the ROFL sign but that is the fastest turn around I have ever seen. Are you italian?

ad9898_3

Really2 wrote: »

I don't think we are going to see high inflation either.
The 10%+ IR is wishfull thinking. I am more of a deflation view myself.

Deflation in wages (pay cuts, pay freezes, this is happening now), compared to inflation in fuel, food, and most essentials (again happening now), then we have the issue of the tax take that will be in full swing after the election and VAT rises before the election, eroding most peoples take home pay even further. The worst of both worlds, that isn't even taking IR's into consideration at all.

Really2

ad9898 wrote: »

Deflation in wages (pay cuts, pay freezes, this is happening now), compared to inflation in fuel, food, and most essentials (again happening now), then we have the issue of the tax take that will be in full swing after the election and VAT rises before the election, eroding most peoples take home pay even further. The worst of both worlds, that isn't even taking IR's into consideration at all.

but we all know fuel is actualy deflated from this time last year, food inflation is subsiding.

We were deflating when the £ = $1.4 with it now at £ =$1.59 it is going to add to inflationary fears?

I think a lot of people are wanting to see things and not actualy looking with their own eyes.

Dont forget mortgage cost deflation and rental deflation

I am not knocking you ( I think you know I respect what you think) but a lot of this seems to be factless wanting by some posters like the title thread. It as not even been though trough by the OP.

Dan:_4

Harry_Powell wrote: »

um, for a similar reason that they crashed when we had a credit crunch - they can't get a mortgage they can afford.

Why do people believe that you can have a property market with no First Time Buyers?

So, just how high do you think IO will go? People could afford mortgage payments in 2007, and they will again when rates return to those levels.

There will always be First Time Buyers.

Harry_Powell

Really2 wrote: »

You lost me so high inflation will happen over night?

I would actually look at poster like purch or pobby (I think) they actually went through inflation i thought it was not "different this time".

i fail to see inflation grabbing hold without anyone noticing or reacting.

So where will all this money go companies start turning-over 10% more and making 10% more profit but the workers keep getting laid off and not getting wage increases.


Sorry you seems to be wanting without actually looking at what happens.

Can you show show a time when inflation went nuts after a recession without a boom and earnings to follow?

Inflation is creeping up already - look at the oil price. Most of the UK's food, consumer items, Gas and Petroleum, raw materials, etc. are mined or produced outside this country. As these other country's come out of recession, prices will start to rise. These rises are out of the control of the UK government. By the time they take notice, inflation will already be out of control and they will have to increase interest rates accordingly - just as they have rapidly lowered them to deal with the credit crunch.

If, after all that's happened (credit crunch, banks failing, investments halfing, etc, etc) you still believe that governments have the eye on the ball then there is no hope for you.

You're showing that you don't understand inflation. Companies need raw materials and have to pay more for them, the only ones who make a profit are oil companies and miners who 'produce' the raw materials. Look at how the airlines suffered when we had fuel inflation...

Really2

Harry_Powell wrote: »

Inflation is creeping up already - look at the oil price. Most of the UK's food, consumer items, Gas and Petroleum, raw materials, etc. are mined or produced outside this country. As these other country's come out of recession, prices will start to rise. These rises are out of the control of the UK government. By the time they take notice, inflation will already be out of control and they will have to increase interest rates accordingly - just as they have rapidly lowered them to deal with the credit crunch.

If, after all that's happened (credit crunch, banks failing, investments halfing, etc, etc) you still believe that governments have the eye on the ball then there is no hope for you.

You're showing that you don't understand inflation. Companies need raw materials and have to pay more for them, the only ones who make a profit are oil companies and miners who 'produce' the raw materials. Look at how the airlines suffered when we had fuel inflation...

No I do, you don't understand exchange rates .

For oil to be the same cost as last sumer it needs to hit $116.9 per barrel based on todays exchange rate.

You can argue all you want but the facts are their black and white. Expect inflation to fall over the next three months not increase.

Do you know inflation for RPI CPI is against YOY no MOM.


sorry i am right on this one.

PS i will think you will find like I posted above the £ is about 14% in our favor for imports since the start of the year.:)
But dont let facts spoil a good story

Harry_Powell

Well, we'll see what happens.

But I'm not talking about a 3 month timescale on this - I don't know why you decided to introduce that strawman.

Really2

Because it takes around that time for exchange rate changes to feed through the system:)

Harry_Powell

Fine, you agree with me that we will see increases in inflation in three months or more time, excellent.

You also agree that there is (at least) a three month lag from something happening, and the remedy going through. A lot of people will get reposessed in that time.

Really2

Harry_Powell wrote: »

Fine, you agree with me that we will see increases in inflation in three months or more time, excellent.

2) You also agree that there is (at least) a three month lag from something happening, and the remedy going through. A lot of people will get reposessed in that time.

No the £ as stregnthend not fallen since the start of the year. Please read.:rolleyes:

2) No thats how long it takes for oil changes/exchange rate changes to hit the UK prices. you would then looking a +/_ 0.X% increases in inflation not 10%:rolleyes:

Please do start a thread entiled " I am desperate for a crash but dont understand the mechanics of economys and trade"

You are new but their will be many others on here who can pick massive holes in such posts.

Just making things up like tha above just don't cut it in reality but you may get a few "THANKS"