Recession Over?

Cat695

I nicked this off the BBC

In the first place, the evidence for "green shoots of recovery" is largely based on surveys that track the expectations of businesses and households, not their actual behaviour.
This may predict future actions. But in most of the real economy, other, lagging indicators such as unemployment and manufacturing output are still getting worse.
Rising unemployment, which could reach 9% in the UK, 10% in the US and 20% in Spain by the end of the year, would have a negative effect on consumption and the housing market.
Secondly, the signs themselves are only pointing to a less severe recession, not an actual recovery.
Many of the surveys which make up part of the leading indicators index are still negative. Although businesses and consumers are slightly less pessimistic than in previous months, they are still far from optimistic.
Thirdly, the tentative signs of recovery are not yet very strong in some of the biggest economies in the world, such as Germany, Japan and the US, where the OECD leading indicators index is still pointing towards further weakening.
And conditions are still deteriorating in developing countries, apart from China.
Without the big economies participating, any recovery next year is likely to be anaemic.

ad44downey

Dan: wrote: »

LONDON (Reuters) - The recession in Britain is over for now, a slim majority of economists said in a poll published by the Financial Times on Monday.

The newspaper said 11 of 20 economists surveyed believed the economy had stopped contracting in June and was likely to start growing in coming months, while those who said the economy was still shrinking thought the bottom of the downturn was near.

http://uk.reuters.com/article/topNews/idUKTRE55705L20090608

Keep up Dan. Everyone knows the recession/depression has only just begun.

Dan:_4

ad44downey wrote: »

Keep up Dan. Everyone knows the recession/depression has only just begun.

Just keep telling yourself that downey - Home Ownership will always be just a dream for you.

IveSeenTheLight

from http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/business/8089117.stm


OECD says global recession easing


China's economy is also showing some positive signs

The pace of decline of the world's major economies is slowing, according to the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD). The composite leading indicators (CLI) index for the 30 countries in the OECD rose 0.5 point in April, but was still 8.3 points lower than April 2008.
"It is still too early to assess whether it is a temporary or a more durable turning point," the OECD said.
The CLI index for the UK rose by 0.7 point, and the US was up by 0.2 point.
In the eurozone, the CLI index increased by 0.8 point, but was down 6.3 points from the same month last year.
'Reduced pace'
The global economy is poised for its worst year since World War II as the major economies have fallen into severe recession.
The organisation said countries not included in the OECD were still declining at a fast pace, with the exception of China and India. Both those countries showed similar signs of easing to the US and Europe.
The data points to a "reduced pace of deterioration in most of the OECD economies with stronger signals of a possible trough in Canada, France, Italy and the United Kingdom", the OECD said.
World stock markets have recovered from their lows in March on hopes for a global recovery, based mainly on survey data of consumer and business confidence.

ad44downey

Dan: wrote: »

Just keep telling yourself that downey - Home Ownership will always be just a dream for you.

I've already got one Dan.

BTW This is all a bit rich coming from someone who lives in a caravan

Dan:_4

ad44downey wrote: »

I've already got one Dan.

BTW This is all a bit rich coming from someone who lives in a caravan

How many Big Issues you sold this week?

ad44downey

Shame on you Dan. You and your alter ego, chucky, are constantly belittling and deriding homeless people. I just hope for your sake that you don't lose your caravan and end up on the street. you'll know all about it then.

Dan:_4

ad44downey wrote: »

Shame on you Dan. You and your alter ego, chucky, are constantly belittling and deriding homeless people. I just hope for your sake that you don't lose your caravan and end up on the street. you'll know all about it then.

Thanks for the concern, but there is no need to worry about me. Maybe if you stopped trolling my posts you wouldn't bring me down to your level.

lostinrates

FWIW as well as the new, slightly shifted and often gloomy work DH has been doing sounds like there is a bit more cheerful stuff in the pipeline, more good news.

Slim majority is a wholly accepetable description, and quite reasonable use of language IMO (but then, who am I do judge on that, rofl).

mewbie_2

Thread reported.

If the recession is over then it should be on the Recovery board.