Get ready for rates to rocket

Heyman_2

Fella wrote: »

Heyman - I have no idea. I don't follow the EU or the US economies to any degree so I can't comment meaningfully on them.

Brown on the other hand, I have witnessed first-hand do everything he can to keep IRs artificially low in order to maintain the housing/consumer spending bubble. His biggest sin by far being to remove house prices from the CPI. Had he not done that the MPC would have had to raise IRs long ago to counter inflation & the UK economy would not have been wrecked by the disastrous bubble in house prices. In other words the system would have worked more or less as it was intended to. Instead house prices were allowed to boom to ridiculous levels.

All Brown knows how to do is spend & encourage others to spend. It's what got us in this trouble & it's what he is proposing to get us out of trouble (since when has there ever been a problem to which the solution is more of whatever caused the problem?)

But I digress. Within a year we will have an election. If IRs are still 0.5% a year after that I'll happily come back here & post that I was wrong.

Fella,

I agree with most of what you've said there about the history - Brown has definitely played his part and has to take responsibility for his actions of previous years in presiding over an unsustainable boom, abandoning all contingency.

But we are where we are - it wouldn't make any sense for us to keep interest rates higher than they are in the current climate, other countries have adopted exactly the same policy of dropping rates to historic lows.

I don't dispute that IRs will be higher in the future, that is a given - they can't go much lower! But I am questioning your assertion that Brown is keeping rates low for his own purposes, given that we can see that this is almost worldwide policy at the moment in the current climate.

dopester

lostinrates wrote: »

I drew parallel to the person I know living over their budget on benefits, who rents, but has a house full of beautiful antiques. I suggested the clue to there freedom from debt (and more) lay in the furniture and the answer from the party, and others, was ''Oh no, wh should they have to sell those, thats all they have''.

Good little story lir - liked it.

However just the same as my urgings to treliac, and more to Max... if you've got it, sell it now. Values are only going to keep falling, sadly, even if you decide to hold on to whatever you have of `value'.

When more people start parting with antiques with the need to raise cash, and accept less for them than similar pieces sold at other times.. it lowers the values for holders of all similar antiques (same as with houses.)

tampabay.com

Saturday, May 16, 2009

KANSAS CITY, Mo. — Although they're not mind readers, personal property appraisers know when they pick up the phone that each caller is eventually going to ask the same question: "What's it worth?"

And in this shaky economy, the phones ring often.



"There's an urgency to sell things because a lot of people are nervous about losing a job," says Sharon Ring Rollins of Sugar Land, Texas, vice chairwoman of the American Society of Appraisers, one of the three main organizations that accredit appraisers.

"I have had a great uptick in appraisals," says Jay Loiselle, an appraiser who specializes in furniture and paintings in Tampa. "Everyone's selling. Not that many are buying."

Knowing what your piece is worth and pricing it correctly doesn't guarantee a quick sale, however.

The value of antiques in this recession is down 25 to 75 percent in many categories. "Antiques of value are following the same formula as housing," Hilbert says. "Everything has gone down."

Loiselle agrees, but says the news is good for some. As more people choose to part with their treasurers, he says, "people with money are having a field day."

telegram.com
Sunday, June 7, 2009
By Katie Nelson THE ASSOCIATED PRESS
Add a comment

WOODBURY, Conn. — Walking what used to be a busy trail of antiques shops in this western Connecticut hamlet now is a lonely, quiet trek.

Throughout New England and the U.S., antiques dealers are having a difficult time drawing customers, canceling major shows from Boston to Minnesota as would-be buyers scale back on purchases during the worst economic downturn since the Great Depression.

“It’s awful,” said Ann Beckman, co-owner of Grass Roots Reruns, one of more than two dozen shops operating in a row of historic Woodbury homes and rustic barns. “A lot of people have just dropped out. You have to be able to weather the storm.”

A multimillion-dollar industry dominated by mom-and-pop shops and part-time enthusiasts, antiques dealers across the country are feeling the pinch.

treliac

You are funny dopester. I presume you'd have every house owner in the land STR (although quite how that could be managed ) as I'm one of the least likely people to be advantaged by doing so.

The only understanding I can reach from your mantra is to do with perceived financial benefits. As most of us home-owners have had no control over the nominal value of our homes, everything is relative and most of us have no vested interest as they are places to live, love and enjoy our family life.

One day, when you are in a similar position, you will be able to do what you are preaching to others. Hope it brings you every happiness.

treliac

lostinrates wrote: »

Just like to say I've been thinking about dopesters stance over night and it occured to me that while the idea of the two highlighted cases STR seems nuts to me I drew parallel to the person I know living over their budget on benefits, who rents, but has a house full of beautiful antiques. I suggested the clue to there freedom from debt (and more) lay in the furniture and the answer from the party, and others, was ''Oh no, wh should they have to sell those, thats all they have''. If its all you have, you have it, and if you have it you have something: by definition, and so, in this sort of case, when its back against a wall on handouts or freedom, I can see a house is not so different to the ntiques. I'm not sying I think that applies to Max or Treliac in the least: but viewing it this way made me sort of reach agreement with dopester for SOME people.

Careful lir, or dopester will be after your family's house too.

lostinrates

treliac wrote: »

Careful lir, or dopester will be after your family's house too.

If anyone would like to buy my parents house then I can afford the over budget two house property I've just seen :j:j. My parents were made a speculative offer a while ago, turned it down, and have said consistnatly say they 'wish they'd taken it but they can sell at any point.' I think its highly unlikely they'll see an offer like that again....but who knows!

dopester

treliac wrote: »

I presume you'd have every house owner in the land STR

Only the few I like - in advance of others selling at ever lower prices.

lostinrates

dopester, can you clarify: areyou male or female?

Dan:_4

nearlynew wrote: »

Yeah, you would :rolleyes:

Err, why's that?

Really2

lostinrates wrote: »

dopester, can you clarify: areyou male or female?

Not with a picture though:)

ad9898_3

Really2 wrote: »

Anyway rates rearly get increased through a recession and if they do not by XX% espetialy when inflation is so low.

How many of the biggest countrys have increased their IR during this recession?

The markets control the real interest rate, the bank base rate is becoming increasingly redundant, other than as a headline figure in the mainstream media, the other thing to point out is sometimes it's beyond the government/BoE control to raise or lower rates, for instance the government need to raise another £218 billion this year alone through the markets, if the markets don't except this, which is a distinct possibility, then rates will have to rise, regardless of the economic conditions in the country.

We also still have the spectre of the IMF being called over the next couple of years, again if that were to happen rates would rise. So all in all, it's not just about inflation, other factors may well come into play. We also have a 'negative' rating at this time with S&P, and I'm sure the other ratings agencies are keeping a beady eye on the situation, again, if we were downgraded, which can't be dismissed out of hand given our dire economic plight, rates would be raised.