MoneySavers predict a rise in house prices!

MSE_Martin

I thought you might be interested to read the following press release about the results of the Moneysavingexpert.com house price poll.

Major change in house price sentiment, most consumers predict a rise!

Latest MoneySavingExpert.com HPCC (House Price Consumer Confidence) Index

There has been a dramatic turnaround in sentiment with the British public now predicting a 0.8% rise in house prices, finds the latest quarterly MoneySavingExpert.com House Price Consumer Confidence Index (HPCC Index), an independent poll of over 5,000 members of the public. This compares to a predicted fall of 3.5% last time, a figure that has been roughly consistent over the last 13 months.

The new HPCC Index, finds that 57% of people believe that house prices will rise over the next year compared to 22% who believe that house prices will fall, a much more optimistic picture compared with six months ago, when the 29% of people predicted a rise and 46% a fall.

The new research suggests that, after three consecutive HPCC Indexes forecast a fall in property values, consumer confidence has rebounded.

Other main HPCC Index findings:

• Some eighteen per cent expect house prices to rise by between 5% and 10%.
  
• Fifteen per cent do not anticipate much change in house prices over the next 12 months.
• Twelve per cent predict a decrease in house prices of up to 10%.
• Just one per cent expect a rise of more than 20%
  
  

Martin Lewis, Creator of MoneySavingExpert.com, comments:

“Because the HPCC Index measures only public sentiment and not actual house prices, it offers a unique perspective on the housing market compared with professional valuers such as surveyors or estate agents. Launched over a year ago, our very large sample size has been an accurate measure of house price movements.

“This is unsurprising as consumer sentiment plays a huge role in determining prices. This positive sentiment means more people are likely to enter the housing market to buy, which in itself will drive prices up… a self-fulfilling prophesy.”

How the findings compare to other surveys:

• The average house price in England and Wales was up 4.6% over the course of 2005 according to Land Registry figures based on completed sales.
  
  
• Property website Rightmove reported in February that the average price of a home in England and Wales has risen above £200,000 for the first time. Property asking prices were up from £196,319 in January to £201,600 in February.

meanmachine_2

Good grief. That's the last thing we need. Yet another "property index".

zar

MSE_Martin wrote:

I thought you might be interested to read the following press release about the results of the Moneysavingexpert.com house price poll. Remember though, it’s a press release so take it with a pinch of salt!

MSE_Archna wrote:

Poll Title: Poll Started 21 February 2006: Will house prices crash? What will happen to UK house prices over the next year?

D. Increase 2-5% 35% (1752 Votes)
C. Increase 5-10% 17.5% (879 Votes)
E. No real change 14.2% (714 Votes)
F. Decrease 2-5% 7.4% (375 Votes)
J. I really have no idea 7.1% (356 Votes)
I. Decrease over 20% (crash) 4.9% (249 Votes)
G. Decrease 5-10% 4.9% (249 Votes)
H. Decrease 10-20% (smaller crash) 4.3% (219 Votes)
B. Increase 10-20% 3% (152 Votes)
A. Increase over 20% 1% (55 Votes)

Total Votes: 5002

Is this a real press release or are you just teasing? Isn't it a bit misleading to release reports about the polls on MSE, especially refering to it as an "independent poll" - there's nothing to stop you voting more than once after all and the sample size varies so much you can't really compare these results with those from Sep 05 which had half the number of respondents (or did everyone vote twice this time?) I know the media do this a lot as it's less expensive than proper polling but...

Actually how many forum members are there? You could actually do a proper sample survey by selecting a random sample of people registered for the forum and ask just them the question. You could do it using the email list as well but forum members would give a better response rate.

Regarding the results, seeing as this is the house price board... As the MSE empire gets ever bigger (i.e. the number on the email list) you're probably changing the population from just the money "nerds" to the more general public. I'd say the money nerds are more likely to believe in the possibility, at least, of a crash.

Also perhaps the large increase in reponse rate means that more people are sufficiently aware of the debate over whether there will be a crash, thus sowing the seeds of doubt in their mind, so that although they answered "oh yes, of course house prices will rise" when they actually are in the situation of buying a house they'll think back... hmm but there might be a crash, and thus the apparant positive sentiment will manifest itself in actuality as negative sentiment.

Excuse the ramblings...

meanmachine_2

Whatever happens to property prices, I can confidently predict a rise in the number of property indices.

How many are their now? More than a dozen at the last count. There does seem to be one released every 3-4 days.

Still, for journos it beats having to actually do any proper research/journalism.

nmiah786

Correct me if I am wrong but I thought that you could not vote more then once in a single poll on this board!!!!

happenstance

meanmachine wrote:

Whatever happens to property prices, I can confidently predict a rise in the number of property indices.

Very true! And you can vote once per account, and there is no way to stop users from opening multiple accounts.

Anyway house prices will almost always increase, if they increase at a rate above inflation is more relivent.

zar

Ah sorry - I'm pretty sure I voted at least twice on the last poll , but perhaps I didn't and it didn't count my second vote? I don't think you have to be logged in to vote, I think it puts a cookie on your computer? (I'm not that technical.) So I probably did my 2 votes on two different computers. When I've just tried on the new one it lets me click vote again but the numbers don't change, even if I log out from the forums, so I'm guessing its the cookie method.

(I didn't vote twice to try and skew results btw, I think I voted the second time to see the results again to see what they were!)

BobProperty

zar wrote:

Ah sorry - I'm pretty sure I voted at least twice on the last poll , but perhaps I didn't and it didn't count my second vote? I don't think you have to be logged in to vote, I think it puts a cookie on your computer? (I'm not that technical.) So I probably did my 2 votes on two different computers. When I've just tried on the new one it lets me click vote again but the numbers don't change, even if I log out from the forums, so I'm guessing its the cookie method.

(I didn't vote twice to try and skew results btw, I think I voted the second time to see the results again to see what they were!)

Did you vote in Florida about 5 years ago by any chance?