House Prices up 4.2% in 3 months Nationwide

StevieJ

davilown wrote: »

So back to the topic, is this a 'dead cat bounce' or is the market recovering?

I can't see the market recovering because of the tax increases, below inflation pay rises and IR increases - surely they can't lead to further increase? Less take home pay = >% on mortgage/rent?

For me it all depends on the banks being able to lend in the future, if they can return to a longterm norm e.g. 90% LTV at BR + 2% this could go some way to negating the future medium term negative influences, a big if though.

IveSeenTheLight

StevieJ wrote: »

For me it all depends on the banks being able to lend in the future, if they can return to a longterm norm e.g. 90% LTV at BR + 2% this could go some way to negating the future medium term negative influences, a big if though.

I fear that you wont see BR + 2% until the base rate is higher i.e. 4%-5%.
Until then, the banks will want to ensure that the get a minimum return on money lent, otherwise it's probably not worth their risk.

chucky

StevieJ wrote: »

For me it all depends on the banks being able to lend in the future, if they can return to a longterm norm e.g. 90% LTV at BR + 2% this could go some way to negating the future medium term negative influences, a big if though.

how about looking at it a different way - as long as you're below the historical average mortgage rate (around 7.5%) and your fixed rate is lower than this - shouldn't that be a good mortgage rate?

penguine

chucky wrote: »

my view on that is because most of the graphs and facts we see are from the 90s recession and most of them come out of HPC.co.uk and similar sites because it fits peoples agendas and viewpoint not because it's could happen.

The fact that the 1990s recession is the most recent previous recession and therefore the one that people remember most clearly probably has something to do with it as well.

chucky

penguine wrote: »

The fact that the 1990s recession is the most recent previous recession and therefore the one that people remember most clearly probably has something to do with it as well.

yes of course - do you remember the 1990s recession in the UK?

what do you think of the other reasons for this?

lostinrates

chucky wrote: »

yes of course - do you remember the 1990s recession in the UK?

I sort of do. I was quite insulated from it, but I remeber the ''mood'' vaguely, and although I didnt necessarily equate them to the economy I rememebr the way we lived and can compare it with the way we lived since. Its the only one I do really remember, I vaguely rememebr minors strikes, goodness knows how I was very, very young and not in this country, I guess I got more from the world service than I thought. However, I certainly have trouble with anything else relating to economy from that period. At 30 I guess I'm at the higher age scale of ftbs, so I'm guessing most FTBs will have shorter memories than I have

JonnyBravo

lostinrates wrote: »

I vaguely rememebr minors strikes

What do we want?

Sherbet dip.

When do we want it?

Now.

When do we want to go to bed?

Later.

What are we?

Bored.


:rotfl:




Sorry

JonnyBravo

lostinrates wrote: »

At 30 I guess I'm at the higher age scale of ftbs, so I'm guessing most FTBs will have shorter memories than I have

Not at all. By 2007 the average age of FTBers was 34. Lots of sources on google if you want to look it up.

Cant find much data since then (in my rather poor 1 min of googling) but with the increase in deposits required since then I'll be surprised if it's come down much, if at all.

IveSeenTheLight

JonnyBravo wrote: »

Not at all. By 2007 the average age of FTBers was 34. Lots of sources on google if you want to look it up.

Cant find much data since then (in my rather poor 1 min of googling) but with the increase in deposits required since then I'll be surprised if it's come down much, if at all.

Other statistics (CML if I remember correctly) showed the average age as just under 30

There was a whole debate about this before and it comes down to whether you are talking median or mean averages.

Lotus-eater

chucky wrote: »

yes of course - do you remember the 1990s recession in the UK?

I do and I remember every other week someone popping up to say the crash was over and everyone go away, nothing to see here.
I think I'll go into hibernation for a year and see what the general populations consensus on property is then. At the moment there is far too much hope and belief that it will be where it was in Sept 07 in a years time.
I'm waiting for the general despair, not the despair of households that are in trouble now, if interest rates go up, then we will see who is really going to get into trouble. Add lower wages which are coming through, raised taxes?

And of course, all that other debt that is hanging round peoples necks so we are led to believe, or we were anyway, that hasn't mostly gone anywhere. Or maybe the debt fairy has magicked it away.

But the internet and the media is changing this crash, I said this ages and ages ago that it would and certainly I'm not going to be one that says the crash cannot be over.
But likely? Hardly! We still don't seem to be that far through it to me.

Three member of my family now in trouble wanting to sell their houses, but can't. Or won't :rolleyes: (We're waiting a year till the prices go back up to their normal levels)