Pound and Oil at seven-month high

donaldtramp

ad9898 wrote: »

I'm really surprised at you, you are after all one of the more intelligent bulls on here, however, technological advances are well proven not to get at any more oil, they just get what is there quicker, hence steepening the curve.

Next we have the 'new fields found' argument, we are currently using 4 barrels of oil for every one discovered, peak discovery was in 1960 and it's been going down ever since.

Next we have 'the move to reduce demand for oil' argument, more or less every single object we as human beings consume has oil at it's heart, from food to disposable nappies, and that isn't taking into consideration that 90% of the worlds transport that we use to move said goods around uses crude oil.

Jesus, these arguments are so feeble, I'm at a loss that people can't or don't want to see what's directly in front of them, ignorance must indeed be bliss.

ad9898, I totally agree with you and I haven't got time to write out all my thoughts on this matter. I have read many, many books and scientific papers on this matter.
As for the comment that the oil sands in Canada "stabilising the oil price", it is very wrong. The whole reason these fields will become economic to produce is because oil production from elsewhere will not be able to keep up with demand = rising oil price. The oil sands will not mitigate the decline and look what our greed is doing to the planet.
As for "new technologies", all we are doing is geting what is in the ground out more quickly. We are accelerating our depletion of oil and it is finite.
70% of the worlds major oil producing countries are in the decline phase of production. Norway, USA, UK, Nigeria etc etc etc

Holding big oil operators shares like BP, Shell is OK just now but long term, they are NOT a good bet. They are in a position that they are no longer able to replace their reserves. So at some point in the not too distant future they will have no business model as they will have used most of their reserves.


You guys better get ready, the oil price is going to rocket over the 5 years or so.
All of these jollies on Easyjet for a fiver WILL stop at some point in the very near future.
Never mind complaining of fuel at around a pound a litre, most people will not be able to run cars in the coming decades.

mewbie_2

StevieJ wrote: »

Am I missing something here.

Yes. They're lying.

purch

obviously I am missing a trick here

You can't take the word of a huge multi-national company with decades of experience in the Oil Industry over the word of someone on a Forum who read stuff on the Internet !!!!!

Will you never learn :eek:

ess0two

Nigeria is a prime example,plenty of oil there,just bags of grief getting it out of the ground due to all the unrest.
Production is severly hindered.

mewbie_2

purch wrote: »

You can't take the word of a huge multi-national company with decades of experience in the Oil Industry over the word of someone on a Forum who read stuff on the Internet !!!!!

Will you never learn :eek:

You speak in jest but it would not be hard to develop a conspiracy theory relating to governments and oil companies overstating reserves for political and economic ends.

donaldtramp

Yup that trustworthy company shell eh?

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/newsbysector/energy/2785456/Shell-likely-to-miss-Canada-tar-sands.html

Shell's oil and gas reserves have been a sensitive issue since the 2004 scandal when Shell booked more assets than it actually had.

donaldtramp

If you guys don't believe in Peak Oil. Just keep going your way and I'll go mine. Somebody is going to come out on top, only time will tell...

We'll have to check back in ten years or so;)

StevieJ

donaldtramp wrote: »

If you guys don't believe in Peak Oil. Just keep going your way and I'll go mine. Somebody is going to come out on top, only time will tell...

We'll have to check back in ten years or so;)

Of course it will not last forever, my question was about 4:1 depletion level
BTW what is your way?

ad9898_3

donaldtramp wrote: »

If you guys don't believe in Peak Oil. Just keep going your way and I'll go mine. Somebody is going to come out on top, only time will tell...

We'll have to check back in ten years or so;)

Donald, forget it, your wasting your time, this will be the next thing 'no one saw coming', even though oil hit $147 a barrel before the recession, the reason, 'speculation'- utter bollox, if the OPEC countries could have pumped more with that $ price, they would have done, the simple fact is, they didn't because they couldn't. As for non OPEC production, 75% of those countries have already peaked and are in decline.

As far as technology goes, just take a look at the Canterall field off the coast of Mexico

Luis Ram!rez Corzo, head of PEMEX's exploration and production division, announced on August 4th, 2004 that the actual oil output from Cantarell was forecast to decline steeply from 2006 onwards, at a rate of 14% per year. In March 2006 it was reported that Cantarell had already peaked, with a second year of declining production in 2005. For 2006, the field's output declined by 13.1%, according to Jes!s Reyes Her!les, the director-general of PEMEX.
In July 2008, daily production rate fell sharply by 36% to 973,668 barrels per day (155,000 m³/d) from 1.526 million barrels per day (243×10^3 m3/d) a year earlier. Analysts theorize that this rapid decline is a result of production enhancement techniques causing faster short-term oil extraction at the expense of field longevity. By January 2009, oil production at Cantarell had fallen to 772,000 barrels per day (123,000 m³/d), a drop in production of 38% for the year, resulting in a drop in total Mexican oil production of 9.2%, the fifth year in a row of declining Mexican production. Pemex expects Cantarells decline to continue to 2012 and eventually stabilizing at an output level of around 500,000 barrels per day (80,000 m³/d).

Degenerate

mewbie wrote: »

On topic - pound strength - I am mightily confused. It's good when it goes up - and - good when it goes down. So it's always good then?

When it goes down, it's a negative indication of worldwide confidence in our economy, but has a stimulating effect on our economy.

When it goes up, it's a positive indication of worldwide confidence in our economy, but has a dampening effect on our economy.

See, it's really not that hard.