Pound and Oil at seven-month high

StevieJ

ad9898 wrote: »

Oil moving up is obvious, there will be volatility until the recession is behind us, but when it is, look for $200 by 2012, peak oil is here folks like it or not, no one in power seems to be able to see the elephant in the room, or maybe they can and don't have clue how to deal with it, so hope ignoring it means it will go away, unfortunately like everything else in life, burying your head in the sand won't help.

Good job I have those oil company shares tucked up in the locker :beer:

ad9898_3

StevieJ wrote: »

Good job I have those oil company shares tucked up in the locker :beer:

I think you've mentioned those before Steve, it won't all be rosy for Big Oil, massive investment to slow the decline on the the otherside of the bell curve will hinder any dividend, but hold to them for a bit though, it won't happen overnight, that is if you have any of course;), and it's not a wind up.

StevieJ

ad9898 wrote: »

I think you've mentioned those before Steve, it won't all be rosy for Big Oil, massive investment to slow the decline on the the otherside of the bell curve will hinder any dividend, but hold to them for a bit though, it won't happen overnight, that is if you have any of course;), and it's not a wind up.

I believe that Shell have never cut their dividend , always a first time though
BTW also bought Barclays at 50p :beer:

IveSeenTheLight

ad9898 wrote: »

I think you've mentioned those before Steve, it won't all be rosy for Big Oil, massive investment to slow the decline on the the otherside of the bell curve will hinder any dividend, but hold to them for a bit though, it won't happen overnight, that is if you have any of course;), and it's not a wind up.

You mention the bell curve and Peak Oil.
In short, we have had 40 years of production and you believe we are at peak, therefore there is the other side of the bell to produce.
That's without considering technological advances, new fields found or a move to reduce demand on oil.

Sure oil is not finite, however it is not as if we are about to run out in the short term either.

mewbie_2

IveSeenTheLight wrote: »

You mention the bell curve and Peak Oil.
In short, we have had 40 years of production and you believe we are at peak, therefore there is the other side of the bell to produce.

Are you sure we haven't seen the bell end?

On topic - pound strength - I am mightily confused. It's good when it goes up - and - good when it goes down. So it's always good then?

purch

It's good when it goes up - and - good when it goes down. So it's always good then?

Of course it's bad when it goes up....and...bad when it goes down, so it's always bad as well.

That's the big conundrum.

ad9898_3

IveSeenTheLight wrote: »

That's without considering technological advances, new fields found or a move to reduce demand on oil.

I'm really surprised at you, you are after all one of the more intelligent bulls on here, however, technological advances are well proven not to get at any more oil, they just get what is there quicker, hence steepening the curve.

Next we have the 'new fields found' argument, we are currently using 4 barrels of oil for every one discovered, peak discovery was in 1960 and it's been going down ever since.

Next we have 'the move to reduce demand for oil' argument, more or less every single object we as human beings consume has oil at it's heart, from food to disposable nappies, and that isn't taking into consideration that 90% of the worlds transport that we use to move said goods around uses crude oil.

Jesus, these arguments are so feeble, I'm at a loss that people can't or don't want to see what's directly in front of them, ignorance must indeed be bliss.

Jonbvn

With the current oil price the Canadian oil sands fields may become economic again. When this happens, the oil supply should increase markedly stabilizing or reducing the oil price.

Just glad it is not my decision when they should recommence production!

Jonbvn

ad9898 wrote: »

Next we have the 'new fields found' argument, we are currently using 4 barrels of oil for every one discovered, peak discovery was in 1960 and it's been going down ever since.

What exactly does this mean, since it would imply that oil companies will go bust within the month? Have you got a cite?

StevieJ

ad9898 wrote: »

Next we have the 'new fields found' argument, we are currently using 4 barrels of oil for every one discovered, peak discovery was in 1960 and it's been going down ever since.
Jesus, these arguments are so feeble, I'm at a loss that people can't or don't want to see what's directly in front of them, ignorance must indeed be bliss.

Am I missing something here

Anglo-Dutch energy giant Royal Dutch Shell said Tuesday that its reserve replacement ratio -- the rate at which production is replaced by new oil discoveries -- came to 126 percent in 2006-2008. "For 2006-2008, organic reserves additions... were 4.6 billion barrels of oil equivalent (boe), compared to production of 3.7 billion boe, a reserves replacement ratio of 126 percent," the company said in a statement. However, net reserves were flat at 11.9 billion barrels at the end of 2008,

And Shell is one of the worst for reserves replacement, obviously I am missing a trick here.