Ftse 100

Tayus

Anyone have any ideas on what they reckon the ftse 100 level will be at the end of 2009?

makemone

Hello Tayus, I wish I knew, :rotfl: , time will tell I guess

alared

There was an article in last Sunday`s Times where an "expert" reckoned 10,000 by 2010.
How anyone could possibly know this baffles me.

Remember the "expert" professor from some university that told everyone to sell their property about 3 years ago because the market was going to crash by 40%.
If we`d listened to him we would all be living in tents now!

Deemy

Tayus wrote:

Anyone have any ideas on what they reckon the ftse 100 level will be at the end of 2009?

hopefully trading at a new all time high

Pal

It will be trading at between 10,000,000 and 50,000,000, but by December 2009 will have collapsed to 3.

Hope this helps.

ManAtHome

Pal wrote:

but by December 2009 will have collapsed to 3.

Is that the beginning or end of Dec..?

4 years is quite a small timescale for equities - historically they've performed well over 10-15 year or longer periods, but there's always the 'past performance doesn't guarantee... etc' bit.

Any particular reason for the end 2009?

Tayus

ive got one of those ftse bond thingies with egg and thats when it matures

dunstonh

Tayus wrote:

ive got one of those ftse bond thingies with egg and thats when it matures

Oh well, never mind. I suppose its better than having done one in 2000/2001.

Still, there is talk that the large caps will return to favour again in the coming year or two so you may get lucky.

Milarky

I was reading at the w/e somewhere (can I find it now?) that amongst other things the FTSE might fall Monday morning following the arrival of British Summer Time - which disturbs the traders for a while I imagine.

Surely it is obvious to anyone that Markets do tarket particular numbers, and the the '000s' are more significant milestones than most. 7000 is a 'target' now that the FTSE stands at 6000 but if it falls back (5500 looks unlikely now, 5700 fairly likely IMO) in the short term these reports of 7000 by year-end will look hopeless. What about 6600 (+10% from here)? That must be a possibility. It could still reach that from a dip to 5700 given its recent gyrations. Right from 6600 next January it will go to 7000 very quickly. Why will it do that? Because it never got to 7000 quite the last time (only 6950 - another 'round' number) So, it will want to shoot through 7000 and safely clear the hurdle - say to 7300. Then it will think about it and have 'modest correction' of 500-600 points. So back to 6750 (Still above 6600 year end) That's a 'signal' surely to take it back up above 7000 - but not much and save the old heave-ho for the last two months of the year when it will go from 7300 to '8000' by year end. The following year it will struggle to about 8600 (under 10%) before lauching itself on a steady rise of about 150points a month toward 10,000 at the end of that year.

So here are my 'predictions'

Mar '06': 6000
May '06': 5700
Oct '06': 6200
Dec '06': 6600

Mar '07': 7000
Apr '07': 7300 [Sell! Sell!]
Jun '07': 6850 [Blair resigns...Buy,]
Jul '07': 6700 [opps! Bit 'overdone'!]
Aug '07': 7450
Sep '07': 7600
Oct '07': 7800
Nov '07': 7550
Dec '07': 8050

Mar '08': 8250 [Reailty]
May '08': 7675 [Here we go!!]
Aug '08': 8000!
Sep '08': 8399!
Oct '08': 8799!
Nov '08': 8949!!!
Dec '08': 8570 [Thought that was too quick!]

Jan '09': 8220 [This is too far.. it's got to bounch]
Mar '09': 8790 [ISA season]
May '09': 8410 [Buy now, not in March, stupid!]
Jun '09': 8690
Jul '09': 8820
Aug '09' 9100!
Sept '09': 9560!
Oct '09' 9150
Nov '09' 9367
Dec '09' 9560

And 'Dec to Dec' numbers:

End
2004: 4800
2005: 5600
2006: 6600 (+18%)
2007: 8050 (+22%)
2008: 8570 (+7%)
2009: 9560 (+12%)

[Also note the factoid that prices will have exactly doubled in 5 years and also that it is approaching the '10k' level as the year approaches a '10' (and therefore a new decade arrives). Then the stock market will have risen for about 2/3rd of the previous decade (2000-2010) whilst falling for about a third of the same period. These may be 'coincidences', but I don't think so. People will gamble on them!]

Ted_Bloke

makemone wrote:

Hello Tayus, I wish I knew, :rotfl: , time will tell I guess

I expect so. Hard to be sure though. We shall just have to wait and see.

Mikeyorks

Milarky - I've a NESI Bond that matures in Nov 09. And will very gladly take your figures as that will give me a £25k profit.

If you've the courage of your convictions / maths / crystal ball - I'll let you have it on your '09 prediction - for a 20% discount !!