German 1Q GDP Posts Sharpest Fall Since 1970

Andrew64

This does matter to us - Germany is our 2nd largest export market. If all our main export markets are up the creek, it's going to be hard for us to have an export-led recovery.

Rochdale_Pioneers

What this does it puts a lie to the claims made by the likes of Cameron and Hannan that the UK was uniquely placed to have it bad, that we were going to be broke whereas everyone else would do better, that thanks to Gordon Brown the UK is going to sink by itself.

Does that mean things aren't bad here? No. Does it mean that its patently obvious that this is global not UK-specific as claimed? Yes. Does it show that policies here are having a positive effect? Yes.

What I could never understand about the frothers was that they seemed screamingly happy at every sign that the UK was in trouble. I suspect this was for political reasons, and that is utterly pathetic. I want the UK to do well because its real people out there losing their jobs, not statistics. Are my actions for political reasons? Considering that I am resigned to a Cameron win and am blogging hard on Labour forums for Brown to go, not hardly.

StevieJ

inspector_monkfish wrote: »

bring back Lire, Deutschmarks and Pesetas !!

When the dams break there could be some serious value in European properties.

sdooley

It matters for me - my other half's family are all in Germany.

The German banks are not in a much better position than some of the British ones, and there's potentially even more trouble as the worst ones there have state guarantees - if some of the Landesbanks call on the guarantees from the weaker states economies (e.g. Saxony for Sachsen LB) it will cause real trouble for the local communities.

On the other hand, I can't see how this ties in with the anecdotes I keep getting about how everyone in Germany is buying new cars under their scrappage scheme?

StevieJ

chucky wrote: »

no i don't think that was ever the underlying point.

the point is that many people on here repeatedly point out that the UK is on the brink of financial armagedon, huge unemployment levels and property will drop 70% - this is obviously not the case and examples like this show that the UK is a very long way away from this.

these posters live in a fictional world detached from reality

Still don't understand why that Devon guy lives in that weird fictional world, I thought he was in negative equity I can broadly understand why the others see profit in doom :eek:

StevieJ

Andrew64 wrote: »

This does matter to us - Germany is our 2nd largest export market. If all our main export markets are up the creek, it's going to be hard for us to have an export-led recovery.

Very true, yes we are all in it together, that is why they call it a Global recession The point is there are many on here that think, no, want to believe that the UK is suffering worse than other countries which is obviously not true Then again the board is dominated by 'call me Dave fans'.

chewmylegoff

Degenerate wrote: »

The point is not that the UK recession and unemployment don't matter, it is that despite the criticisms that people (including you) make of the UK government, the evidence suggests they have been managing things well to mitigate the impact of the crisis.

I suppose the IMF's predictions that the UK economy will be the only major economy that shrinks in 2010 falls into that category of evidence does it.

Degenerate

chewmylegoff wrote: »

I suppose the IMF's predictions that the UK economy will be the only major economy that shrinks in 2010 falls into that category of evidence does it.

What, you means the ones they switched to after spending most of the previous year predicting that the UK would do better than the US or Europe?

Mind you, as a bear I suppose you would prefer the IMFs consistently way-off predictions to the more recent OECD ones that, again, predicted the UK to suffer less that the US or Europe.

Predictions aren't evidence, they're guesswork. The real evidence is coming in the form of cold, hard economic data , consistently showing that the UK is suffering less than others.

StevieJ

Andrew64 wrote: »

This does matter to us - Germany is our 2nd largest export market. If all our main export markets are up the creek, it's going to be hard for us to have an export-led recovery.

Just one point regarding exports to Europe, do you not think that the slide in Sterling against the Euro will not dramatically assist our exports.

Rochdale_Pioneers

Degenerate wrote: »

What, you means the ones they switched to after spending most of the previous year predicting that the UK would do better than the US or Europe?

Mind you, as a bear I suppose you would prefer the IMFs consistently way-off predictions to the more recent OECD ones that, again, apredicted the UK to suffer less that the US or Europe.

Predictions aren't evidence, they're guesswork. The real evidence is coming in the form of cold, hard economic data , consistently showing that the UK is suffering less than others.

Absolutely. I don't trust IMF forecasts as far as I can throw them, and that includes the ones showing us doing well. Each and every forecast made by them has been wrong, some proven wrong within a few days of being issues. To cling to any individual IMF forecast and say "there's proof" is either idiocy or a bear-faced deception.

Hard evidence is what counts, not forecasts. And the evidence is clear. We're not worst off. Our unemployment is relatively low - both in context of past UK recessions and currently vs Europe. Our economy isn't shrinking as quickly as our competitors. The pound hasn't crashed as predicted. We're still in far less debt than the few economies bigger than ourselves. These are the facts. I know they disagree with the political narrative created by mamny posters, but that doesn't change reality.