More surveyors expect prices to keep falling than rise - RICS survey

penguine

The article isn't very clear but I think Carol is right -- it says:

The Rics survey found that more surveyors expected prices to keep falling than rise in general, but that the decline could stabilise in the coming months.

Which seems to be saying, the decline won't stop, it won't accelerate, but it will stabilise, ie keep falling at the same rate.

It would be nice if the author of the article could have taken more time to present the ideas clearly though.

chucky

Carol and her one woman crusade to push house prices lower on an internet forum so that she can afford to buy... tut tut

For every 100 surveyors polled by RICS, 48 are seeing prices fall, while the same number are seeing prices hold stable, and just 5 are seeing an improvement in prices.

http://uk.biz.yahoo.com/090512/214/il3gg.html

ad9898 wrote: »

You can't even call this a dead cat bounce because prices are still falling and will be lower by year end then they are now.

it depends where they are falling- nearly half the areas are holding stable and 5% are increasing... so we're have to be a bit careful because we can be accused of generalising here and having a personal agenda

we can call it VI or whatever we like but would you want to be in these areas and pay more for a property in the future because you take advice from stangers on an internet forum...

adr0ck

full report available below

http://www.rics.org/NR/rdonlyres/C6485B49-FE2D-46EA-BBEF-876250F98B9A/0/hms_0409.pdf

Main points below:

Rising buyer interest fuels greater sales activity

Changes to Home Information Pack (HIP) rules lead to a sharp drop in new instructions

Increase in sales to stock ratio for fourth consecutive month suggests prices could stabilise later in the year

carolt

chucky wrote: »

Carol and her one woman crusade to push house prices lower on an internet forum so that she can afford to buy... tut tut

Wouldn't that be chucky and his one-man crusade to keep prices high by whatever means so he can avoid being sucked into ever greater negative equity? :rolleyes:

dopester

IveSeenTheLight wrote: »

If the house price decline stabalises, then that would indicate the bottom is near and DOES equal falls stopping

Remembering and looking back at so many of your posts, you've really found your position whacked by events haven't you?

I wonder when you will start to really panic. 3 properties and a job in the oil industry.

Panic can't be that long away for you. Sounding more desperate... "indicate the bottom is near." You know my views. Tried to warn you many times but to no avail. The crash has hardly even got going.

It was around Spring 2008 I seem to recall a post where you thought the extent of the crash would be around 10%, or 15%.

Earlier stuff too, which is so mixed up. This isn't about what is best for the economy. The economy has been run on a totally unsustainable basis, fuelled by debt and an incredible asset value bubble. House prices trebled in value over 10 years.

Just because the correction is not good for the economy as you know it..... can't stop the crash.

15% over 3 years (May 2008)

IveSeenTheLight wrote: »

What is best for the economy? Overshoot and drop 40% or a gradula drop of 15% over the next 3 years?

You might as well say... what is best for my body? Not suffering critical injures, whilst having recklessly driven your car whilst drunk at 120 mph into a massive tree, or surviving without a scratch, opening the door, and nipping across the road for a Chinese takeaway.

The event has happened. There are consequences you can't avoid, no matter how much you'd like to wish them away. The crash is in motion and playing out.

chucky

carolt wrote: »

Wouldn't that be chucky and his one-man crusade to keep prices high by whatever means so he can avoid being sucked into ever greater negative equity? :rolleyes:

i doubt it somehow - Duchess. far too much HPI in the pocket and good prices paid for property...

but you should really respond to my points in my post before you try to deflect the thread and take it into the gutter where you enjoy it most...

inspector_monkfish

carolt

chucky wrote: »

i doubt it somehow - Duchess. far too much HPI in the pocket and good prices paid for property...

but you should really respond to my points in my post before you try to deflect the thread and take it into the gutter where you enjoy it most...

Er ....who put this thread in 'the gutter', as you call it?

Who first posted personal insults?

Um, let me see...... :rolleyes:

chucky

carolt wrote: »

Er ....who put this thread in 'the gutter', as you call it?

Who first posted personal insults?

Um, let me see...... :rolleyes:

I REPEAT... lets see if you can reply to the important bits...

For every 100 surveyors polled by RICS, 48 are seeing prices fall, while the same number are seeing prices hold stable, and just 5 are seeing an improvement in prices.

http://uk.biz.yahoo.com/090512/214/il3gg.html

ad9898 wrote: »

You can't even call this a dead cat bounce because prices are still falling and will be lower by year end then they are now.

it depends where they are falling- nearly half the areas are holding stable and 5% are increasing... so we're have to be a bit careful because we can be accused of generalising here and having a personal agenda

we can call it VI or whatever we like but would you want to be in these areas and pay more for a property in the future because you take advice from stangers on an internet forum...

dopester

carolt wrote: »

The Rics survey found that more surveyors expected prices to keep falling than rise in general, but that the decline could stabilise in the coming months.

"Transactions remain at very low levels, and we are unlikely to see significant improvements while money remains in short supply and the employment picture is uncertain," said Rics spokesman Jeremy Leaf.

Imagine there was only 10 transactions in every major town.

When those few sellers and buyers are agreeing to complete at lower prices, then property values for all owners fall in every town.

If you think your home is worth £300,000... what is it worth when the near identical property next-door sells at £250,000? And 3 months later, the near identical home across the street sells at £230,000. 6 months later, near identical property up the street sells at £210,000?

You really think yours is still worth £300,000?

You might do, but does the market? No. The value has been lowered as the few buyers and sellers agree to deal at lower prices.

It is called a market. Something here people just seem unable to understand.

Property values are decided simply by those who are buying and selling.

What price they agree on, impacts on all other owner's property values. Even if some homeowners are sitting tight and not selling, their homes are worth less, as other sellers and buyers do deals at lower prices.