NATIONWIDE - UK house prices fall 0.4 pct mm in April

ukcarper

how is the average price worked out

the_ash_and_the_oak

mitchaa wrote: »

I think you all agreed that we would be down around 40% by xmas if i am not mistaken.

There were hundreds of threads on here stating that 2009 is going to be far worse than 2008 due to the recession, debt and increasing unemployment.

That has simply not happened in the 4mths so far. Nationwide state house prices have fallen less than 1% so far this year in the 4 months up until now.

Where's Dopester, Brit1234, Carol, NDG, even Generali who predicted that things were going to get a whole lot worse in 2009. There are some very quiet bears, ad44downey still with his head in the sand concentrating on 1 misleading quote;)

Hadn't really read anything suggesting 40% by christmas and not sure why anyone would think it would be so fast - crashes are slow motion imo. 40% overall is a good shout imo but think it'll take a long while to get there. Not really seeing anything thats making my opinion change too much right now.

Really2

dazeruk wrote: »

So house prices started falling in 2007 due to housing liquidity problems. Is the economic climate now better or worse? From what I've seen I would say worse. More business have folded and unemployment rising. How can house prices turn around in those conditions? Surely the currently worsing conditions can only add to that early crisis?

depends on if the market as hit a point of stability, look at shares it is not just based on the economy but value also.

Surely you would be seeing falls accelerating not slowing now so it is not a lagging indicator of the economy.

Graham_Devon

ukcarper wrote: »

how is the average price worked out

Depends which side of the fence you are sitting on it seems.

the_ash_and_the_oak

If some bears are buying now thats good news for them imo. Prob happy they got something cheaper than last year and at a cheaper rate also. It makes sense for bears to become bulls - the question is merely when

Dan:_4

Graham_Devon wrote: »

Oh I seeeee

So mitchaa, who doesn't use those figures you posted above there, in his signature, because that wouldnt prove his point is now also using those figures to proclaim a rise.

Depends which set of figures works each month, I guess?

If your talking about my signature, you will notice it IS those figures I have used.

stephen163

Look at it this way, over a longer period, it makes no difference whether you use seasonally or non-seasonally adjusted figures - but you have to be consistent. The seasonal adjustment will tend to emphasise house price falls in busy months (like now) but also underplay falls in the quieter months. It should, by my reckoning, balance out over a year. You can't pick and choose though - if people were using seasonally adjusted figues in the dark winter months, they can't now turn to the raw data. If they do, and boast about increases now, I can pluck the raw data for the winter months and soon prove that they lost more there than the figures they are trying to use suggest.

As I say, it all balances out as long as you are consistent.

the_ash_and_the_oak

Don't see anything wrong with using whichever figures suit you best imo. Presumably the figures you set any store in will be the figures that guide actions

ukcarper

Quote:
Originally Posted by ukcarper
how is the average price worked out

Graham_Devon wrote: »

Depends which side of the fence you are sitting on it seems.

I,m still none the wiser

Graham_Devon

the_ash_and_the_oak wrote: »

Don't see anything wrong with using whichever figures suit you best imo. Presumably the figures you set any store in will be the figures that guide actions

As long as you are consistent in using those figures, then fine.

However, swapping and changing to whichever set of figures suit that month, to ramp your interests is what gets me, which is what is happening here.

It's simple goalpost changing, which is a shame, as last month, when prices were reported as a 0.9% rise, all the bears accepted it, and we all had a good bit of banter on here. But this month, it's all change again, and massaging figures to suit, as they have gone down.