How do I get my Dad off my back?

duchy

I think if you keep your Dad involved you'll get less grief than if you try and fend him off. He'll think you're trying to hide something (like spending )

He probably sees interest on savings is low and is afraid you are going to lose out by not buying now as your deposit depreciates. It's not a theory I agree with but I can see how he might think that as it has been a truth in the property market until very recently.
I do agree with those who say getting set to buy now -so if the bargain of a lifetime pops up you are able to move faster than those who are also doing what you're doing now and playing a waiting game-may just pay off bigtime.
Once the market DOES lift there's going to be a surge of FTBers like you pushing the market up again at an acelerated rate.
Buying at the *right* price now may mean 2 years of (low interest rate) mortgage paid off by the time the market starts moving again which may ultimately mean that following the crowd may not be the effective use of that deposit whereas jumping in ahead of them is.

Waiting makes sense-it's the judging -waiting for WHAT that is the difference !

the_ash_and_the_oak

Dan: wrote: »

You should listen to your dad.

The usual desperate doomers will say 'wait', but that's only because their salary is insufficient to buy even at today's prices. You should show your dad this thread, it will give him a good laugh.

Remember prices have fallen 20% - this is already as much as the 90s crash, and the signs are the bottom of the market is near. You could wait 12 months but prices are unlikely to fall by a significant amount during this time (maybe 10% if your lucky), but you run the risk of missing out on the current low-interest mortgage products that are currently available.

Your dad is right, start registering with Estate Agents and, depending on your area, aim to get 6-10% off the asking price while it's a buyers market.

not sure about some of this

feel although there were 20% falls last time a good chunk of the falls weren't nominal. kinda feeling inflation has been a bit lower this time around imo

also - think another 10% would actually be fairly significant. and i'm not sure there are that many low-interest products around right now

the other two things i'm not sure about here are i) if base rate is to stay low for some time, as many seem to think - mayb same could be said for mortgages, and ii) if rates were to rise sharply - that could hurt prices plus the OP would get a reasonable savings rate if that were to happen.

and also, when they do hit bottom what is your opinion on what happens next? I'm kinda feeling they'll stay static for a good while - prices are still really high imo - if they were to start rising rather than being level in the next 12 months then they'd start reaching dangerous levels again. while falls aren't healthy I think y-o-y rises of more than 3% aren't signs of a healthy market either

I'm kinda dubious about talk of 'missing the boat' on entry to an illiquid market (which housing always is imo).

JayScottGreenspan

From another thread:

http://forums.moneysavingexpert.com/showpost.html?p=21032209&postcount=1

Has your Dad seen this?

chucky

JayScottGreenspan wrote: »

From another thread:

http://forums.moneysavingexpert.com/showpost.html?p=21032209&postcount=1

Has your Dad seen this?

it would be great to see that same graph with interest rates too

System

chucky wrote: »

it would be great to see that same graph with interest rates too

But you know full well it wouldn't fulfill it's purpose then

duchy

the_ash_and_the_oak wrote: »

and also, when they do hit bottom what is your opinion on what happens next? I'm kinda feeling they'll stay static for a good while - prices are still really high imo - if they were to start rising rather than being level in the next 12 months then they'd start reaching dangerous levels again. while falls aren't healthy I think y-o-y rises of more than 3% aren't signs of a healthy market either

I'm kinda dubious about talk of 'missing the boat' on entry to an illiquid market (which housing always is imo).

My feeling is that once prices are percieved to have bottomed out there will be a rush to buy from everyone currently waiting and that will push prices up with demand outweighing supply again. There's an awful lot of people currently playing the waiting game. I think timing is all and it's not something I'd want to predict. I don't see the true bottom of the market staying static for long once it is generally agreed to have being reached.

Ultimately I see buying a house as buying a home and if you're ready to do that (rather than see it primarily as investment) then that should be the focus point rather than determination to buy at the very bottom. From what the OP says he isn't at the settling down point so investment is more of a consideration.

Gorgeous_George

It's your money and you do with it what you wish. I wouldn't be buying now but, equally, I wouldn't sell either. I think we are approaching the bottom of the market - but who knows?

There is some merit in tying in a good mortgage deal. You could wait a couple of years (paying rent I assume) only to 'save' 10% of the purchase price but need a mortgage at 6% rather than 4%.

With low rates, £35K won't grow much and there's a risk that you might spend it on loose cars and fast women (or you could just squander it).

So, do the sums.

1. Rent for x months then buy for £y
2. Buy now for £z and accept that the value could fall

Throw in a slice of the stuff money can't buy (satisfaction of 'owning' your own home) (joy of paying for your own boiler to be serviced) and make yuour decision.

Tell your dad that you will look at your options again in 6 months. If he asks again, restart the 6 months counter.

GG

Tozer

duchy wrote: »

My feeling is that once prices are percieved to have bottomed out there will be a rush to buy from everyone currently waiting and that will push prices up with demand outweighing supply again. There's an awful lot of people currently playing the waiting game. I think timing is all and it's not something I'd want to predict. I don't see the true bottom of the market staying static for long once it is generally agreed to have being reached.

Ultimately I see buying a house as buying a home and if you're ready to do that (rather than see it primarily as investment) then that should be the focus point rather than determination to buy at the very bottom. From what the OP says he isn't at the settling down point so investment is more of a consideration.

Some good points here.

We've been waiting for 18 months. Only in the last month or so have we noticed that things are beginning to move and what looked like bargains are beginning to be sold.

Sure, there are still a glut of overpriced city-centre apartments but the desirable and 'don't come up often' properties are really beginning to shift.

the_ash_and_the_oak

duchy wrote: »

My feeling is that once prices are percieved to have bottomed out there will be a rush to buy from everyone currently waiting and that will push prices up with demand outweighing supply again. There's an awful lot of people currently playing the waiting game. I think timing is all and it's not something I'd want to predict.

Not really feeling this tbh. Don't really think there are enough people on sidelines with deposits - and if we revert back to 100% mortgages and the rest think we won't be working the badness through the system, but merely postponing it (tho I guess politically this could be an aim).

fwiw think you are right that sentiment is still comparatively high re: houses tho

JayScottGreenspan

Originally Posted by chucky
it would be great to see that same graph with interest rates too

Joeskeppi wrote: »

But you know full well it wouldn't fulfill it's purpose then

Clearly low interest rates and rising unemployment exert pressure on house prices in different directions.

I wonder which factor Laurel and Hardy here think will prevail in the next 12 months?