UK Stockmarket 2009 and beyond

StevieJ

sabretoothtigger wrote: »

I really dont think the world runs out of oil more likely the cost rises and becomes uncompetetive and so on (peak oil) .

)

That is the way I see it and makes the birth of alternatives much easier to digest when the capital appraisals are put together by the company accountants.

sabretoothtigger

cloud_dog wrote: »

If anyone knows of any gas/oil stocks where there primary exposure is to gas I would be interested.

Thansk

I was thinking LSE when I read this but we discussed this whole gas thing last summer and at the time I considered CHK

http://forums.moneysavingexpert.com/search.html?searchid=78280485

http://www.thestreet.com/_yahoo/video/10605123/why-im-a-natural-gas-bull.html?cm_ven=YAHOOV&cm_cat=FREE&cm_ite=NA&s=1#42784707001

^^^

Sept_2009 wrote:

We know Natural Gas is going up 22% over the next 2 months..... sometimes the fundamentals dont matter

UNG is half the price it was back then, I didnt realise it was so negative what about all that snow.

Anyway I went with INTC instead, better yield if nothing else. Its done as well as CHK has done badly so a good time to switch maybe approaching.

The main reasoning for gas would be vs currency weakness in my opinion and this ties to INTC for me also as Im a bit uncertain about holding usa stocks with currency risk even though sterling is hardly that good.

I dont want to spam too much but the main dynamic I'd be looking for is energy competitiveness like TT mentioned vs coal power stations and so on

If currency is weak then it raises the petrol price and oil price, USA is a net importer and so are we.
These effects lag before they trigger the next stage. I think its common for companies to hold currency contracts, so when sterling fell from $2 it wasnt felt initially but what did matter even more is that it didnt bounce back so 6 or 12 months later it has an effect on business ongoing costs.

Shares always look ahead so thats different but this is bottom line

So anyway, CHK will be worth buying at some point I think. Its complicated though and the timescales vary but if USA has enough gas to supply itself and is an oil importer this makes gas a very long term growing prospect not declining imo.
So this might be a good counter play to a weak dollar I think, the weaker the dollar the more true it is.

Probably no rush, plenty of time to consider it all. One to watch I guess. I expect stronger dollar then this at some point this year but never can tell!


http://finance.yahoo.com/echarts?s=CHK#chart9:symbol=chk;range=20090930,20100318;compare=intc;indicator=volume;charttype=line;crosshair=on;ohlcvalues=0;logscale=off;source=undefined


http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WnyfPw9cM5U

bobbyj_2

that TMC i mentioned starting to motor.

StevieJ

Not sure why the markets are not reacting to this but the Shell news flows are extremely positive.

19/03/2010 Shell announces a significant new oil discovery in the deepwater eastern Gulf of Mexico, adding to discoveries in the area from 2009.

http://www.shell.com/home/content/investor/news_and_library/press_releases/2010/eastern_gulf_mexico_portfolio_19032010.html

http://www.economy-news.co.uk/royal-dutch-shell-19201003.html

cloud_dog

Anyone care to offer their views on the VIX and what it may be indicating.

Out of interest I was using the below link at Yahoo to compare one of my stocks (WTN):
http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?s=%5EVIX&t=6m&l=on&z=m&q=l&c=WTN.L,%5EGSPC,%5EDJI

Also wondering if now (not quite yet) but, shortly to consider use of the XUKS or SUK2.

tradetime

To me, the VIX has moved back into an area that could be viewed as a historic norm, after a period of time at extreme levels. I do not feel anyone can make tradable decisions based around what the VIX is doing. It is currently telling that there is not aggressive speculation by options to the downside.
As for inverse ETF's, I believe the markets are destined for higher levels ultimately this year, of course nothing ever moves straight up, or down for that matter so there will be opportunities to play pullbacks suk2.l looks particularly thinly traded, so I would observe the spread on that.
1170 - 75 area is providing reasonable resistance here on SPX, so could well see a retest of the 1150 breakout area in the next couple of days, I personally would like to see the 1115 area tested as support but we have to take what we get. This would equate roughly to 5560 area FTSE and 5350 - 5400 area respectively.

[Deleted User]

I sold the big oils this am and have set new buy limits which are in place until the next ex div. I racked up nice divis and a decent profit on the capital so am happy

Portfolio is at an all time high now and it is the divis that are holding it steady

bobbyj_2

Marketmakers trashing some smallcaps this morning, time to buy some stuff.

StevieJ

kittie wrote: »

I sold the big oils this am and have set new buy limits which are in place until the next ex div. I racked up nice divis and a decent profit on the capital so am happy

Portfolio is at an all time high now and it is the divis that are holding it steady

I sold BP last week at 630, I going to increase my Shell stake, just waiting to see if we are having a correction.

[Deleted User]

StevieJ wrote: »

I sold BP last week at 630, I going to increase my Shell stake, just waiting to see if we are having a correction.

I am sure that we are