BBC Weather Forecasts - reliability

rbulph

I've noticed a few times that weather forecasts on the BBC for towns and their airports show huge discrepancies. For instance the forecast maximum for Muscat for Friday is currently 43 degrees (http://news.bbc.co.uk/weather/forecast/1562) while for Muscat Seeb airport, just a few miles away and at the same altitude it is 34 degrees (http://news.bbc.co.uk/weather/forecast/1563). That's a big difference, and it's similar every day in the coming week. I've contacted the BBC and asked why, but no response as yet. Does anyone know if there's a valid reason for these differences? Am I better off looking elsewhere for foreign weather forecasts?

sturll

I can answer this.

In the USA i have been in a town where it has been maybe 14 degrees (Bishop AZ) then drove about 15 miles East and it has been high 30's.

Or when i was in Lake Tahoe it was 1c and about 10 foot of snow, 20 miles away there is no snow and its a comfortable 20c.

The reason you find huge surprise is because in the UK weather doesn't change that greatly here.

Vampgirl

City centres are often hotter than open countryside so some difference is to be expected. The differences between Muscat town and the airport are pretty high, but this can probably be explained fairly easily: the weather centre that collect the data for Muscat is likely located inside the city whereas airports generally have their own weather stations so the data there would be different - Muscat airport is about 20 miles from Muscat centre and is only a mile or so from the coast (with nothing significant between it and the sea) so you would expect it to be significantly cooler there.

neilbond007

sturll wrote: »

I can answer this.

In the USA i have been in a town where it has been maybe 14 degrees (Bishop AZ) then drove about 15 miles East and it has been high 30's.

Or when i was in Lake Tahoe it was 1c and about 10 foot of snow, 20 miles away there is no snow and its a comfortable 20c.

The reason you find huge surprise is because in the UK weather doesn't change that greatly here.

i drove from Yosemite (35C) to Livermore (32C) to San Fran (12C).
5hit me... getting out of the car in San Fran in t-shirt and shorts it was a bit parky i tell thee

rbulph

Vampgirl wrote: »

City centres are often hotter than open countryside so some difference is to be expected. The differences between Muscat town and the airport are pretty high, but this can probably be explained fairly easily: the weather centre that collect the data for Muscat is likely located inside the city whereas airports generally have their own weather stations so the data there would be different - Muscat airport is about 20 miles from Muscat centre and is only a mile or so from the coast (with nothing significant between it and the sea) so you would expect it to be significantly cooler there.

Thanks. I appreciate that this is probably something to do with there being different weather stations in the city centre and at the airport but it still feels to me as if the forecasts must be unreliable if there's so much difference. Muscat itself is right on the sea and it's not that big, so I can't see differences in location providing more than a one or two degree difference.

And if cities are warmer than their neighbouring airports why does Marrakech show the opposite effect? 20 degrees in Marrakech tomorrow (http://news.bbc.co.uk/weather/forecast/126?&search=marrakech&pageSize=10&region=world) and 25 degrees at the airport (http://news.bbc.co.uk/weather/forecast/869?pageSize=10).

anudeglory

I would look at as many different forecasts as you can and then take an average. Then you should multiply it by a guessed probability of being correct - maybe flip a coin or something.

The MET office is located in Exeter where I work and it is quite often funny when they predict and forecast that the weather will be sunny but it is actually raining. You see they are not allowed to look out the window and report , they must use their predicted models.

omelette451

rbulph wrote: »

it still feels to me as if the forecasts must be unreliable

I can't comment about the city centre forecasts but the ones for airports will be taken from the airport's own weather stations and will generally be pretty accurate - airports are one place where decent weather forecasts and reports really do matter.

DonnaLO

I often laugh when I look at the BBC forecast for here in Toulouse. We can be baking hot and it shows cloud or rain. Depending on where you are going maybe look at the Tourist Office website, they will probably source their information a little more locally. On the French Meteo website I can search by my postcode, but even that doesn't always get it right, was very warm and sunny today but according to their site it was raining all day!

omelette451

DonnaLO wrote: »

I often laugh when I look at the BBC forecast for here in Toulouse. We can be baking hot and it shows cloud or rain. Depending on where you are going maybe look at the Tourist Office website, they will probably source their information a little more locally. On the French Meteo website I can search by my postcode, but even that doesn't always get it right, was very warm and sunny today but according to their site it was raining all day!

The BBC website uses data from local equivalents of the Met Office (in France's case this is Meteo France), so in theory they should both show the same data. In reality the BBC is likely to be slightly behind MF, given the lack of priority for non-UK cities.

bonty44

I've started checking out webcams; I find them much more reliable

Beaker99

I've always assumed this was because the BBC will obtain some weather from regional authorites (airports etc) where the weather will be forecast acurately. However most automated readings will be calculated from mathematic models. eg When I ask for the weather in Hitchin, I'm receiving a modelled forecast, whereas if I ask for Heathrow thre forecast probably has some human input/consideration. It's possibel that this is what's happening on your two sites..

I'd be interested to knwo what the BBC's response is - maybe you'd have better luck emailing the metoffice?

..but then again maybe I'm wrong... ??

edit: and I ditto the poster above.. webcams are a godsend!!