aging population trends and its impact

Wookster

bubblesmoney wrote: »

looking at the chart japan will implode seeing the aged population figures. unless they invent more robots like in the movie 'I Robot' by then.

At least there's another country that's in a worse position than we are and that will be an example of the gigantic problem we face.

ukcarper

bubblesmoney wrote: »

how do you think they will house all the old people who dont have houses and when there is not enough money to fund their retirement.

probably by bringing in rent control legislation for rented houses and also forcibly take control of vacant houses for social housing as has happened in other places. all those old people will be a big vote bank which the politicians wont be able to ignore, so BTL will probably be an enticing target for the politicians in those circumstances.

new york recently passed more such legislation i think.

in the houses they lived in before they got old

ninky_2

bubblesmoney wrote: »

the one child policy will have a big impact come retirement time when the population ages.

it could well work in a positive way. the biggest contributing factor to standard of living in retirement is the amount of savings that have been built up during working life. this far outweighs anything the state pension provides for. in fact, this may well be one reason the chinese are able to be such a nation of savers - they are not being sucked financially dry by their offspring.

having fewer children means more disposable income = bigger pension pot.

in the UK the average cost of raising a child to the age of 18 has been calculated at £180k. that's a significant amount of pension investment.

StevieJ

Wookster wrote: »

At least there's another country that's in a worse position than we are and that will be an example of the gigantic problem we face.

You could always go back to Zimbabwe

bubblesmoney

Russia’s Depopulation Bomb

unlike all the previous depopulations in Russia, this one has been taking place under what are, within the Russian context, basically orderly social and political circumstances. Terror and war are not the engines for the depopulation Russia is experiencing today, as they have been in the past.

And finally, whereas Russia’s previous depopulations resulted from wild and terrible social paroxysms, they were also clearly temporary in nature. The current crisis, on the other hand, is proceeding gradually and routinely, and thus it is impossible to predict when, or whether, it will finally come to an end.
...........
Putin’s Kremlin made a fateful bet that natural resources—oil, gas, and other extractive saleable commodities—would be the springboard for the restoration of Moscow’s influence as a great power on the world stage. In this gamble, Russian authorities have mainly ignored the nation’s human resource crisis. During the boom years—Russia’s per capita income roughly doubled between 1998 and 2007—the country’s death rate barely budged. Very much worse may lie ahead. How Russia’s still-unfolding demographic disaster will affect the country’s domestic political situation—and its international security posture—are questions that remain to be answered.

GDB2222

The problem is over-hyped for two reasons:

The economic aspects of an ageing population depend mostly on how old people are when they retire. If we insist on keeping an age 65 retirement age, the problem gets worse. If we increase the retirement age to say 75, it goes away completely. A middle course, retirement at 70 say, leads to some increase in costs, but manageable.

At the moment, we can't keep our young people in work, so there's not much political incentive to include older people in the workforce. Once the workforce starts to shrink, that attitude will change.

bubblesmoney

i guess by forcing people to work till 70 the pensions crisis will vanish as they will die before being eligible for a pension!

GDB2222

Average projected life expectancy is well past 80, so no, that's incorrect.

cocktail

bubblesmoney wrote: »

i guess by forcing people to work till 70 the pensions crisis will vanish as they will die before being eligible for a pension!

that was the idea being raising it to 65. i guess it will have to raise to 70 soon, to atleast contain part of the deficit.
i do not know if its a good or a bad thing but i know a few friends who have withdrawn from their company pension schemes, fearing this. they are saving at the moment for retirement.

bubblesmoney

GDB2222 wrote: »

Average projected life expectancy is well past 80, so no, that's incorrect.

average projected life expectancy of 80y is when they were retiring at 60. but if they were working for 10 more years then life expectancy might drop a lot lower than 80y.