Am I balanced or Unstable?

Baz_2

GucciMane wrote: »

You serious 2/3? That is quire a risk. We are not in an inflationary environment, it is deflationary. So make sure you can hedge.

I have a funny feeling Digger is a bit of a troll.

The last 3 or 4 post of his I have read have been very irrational and some just plain wrong.

theGrinch

DiggerUK wrote: »

@ theGrinch,
I note you are only 10% in gold. As you are looking at a long time frame I would recommend you go to 20%.

I'm a higher %, about 2/3, you may not feel comfortable at that level.

I know that "paper gold" can be put in a SIPPS, don't know how your set up works, I'm not a fan of equities.

2/3rd is bold..

if anything I will be halving from 10 to 5% or remaining at 10%.

DiggerUK

@ theGrinch,
It may seem bold, some regard it differently. Time will tell.

We have been buying since 2005 in a serious way. Had been buying small amounts since the 80's (sovs) but nothing substantial. In our calculations in 2005 we factored in a 20% beating, and if we could survive.

As things stand my costs, everything included, come to around 530 per ounce, so we will have warning of time to bail out. We don't see that at the moment. (Have not included our sovs in the 530, so it is below that)

If we had realised how fast things were going to crash we would not have taken such a steady pace at moving into gold large. Hindsight for you.

I'm more against equities now than ever, the GDP/unemployment figures and forecasts are dire.

If the politicians are also saying that green shoots of recovery can be expected in late 2009 or early 2010 it means there is no prospect of recovery in late 2010 at best.

Buy in steady and regular for the long haul. Gauging the dips ain't rocket science, you just follow the charts.

Like any investment it should be fun, we're having a whale of a time.

I don't think we would be so happy if we had accepted advise off an IFA in 2005 that's for sure

theGrinch

DiggerUK wrote: »

@ theGrinch,
If the politicians are also saying that green shoots of recovery can be expected in late 2009 or early 2010 it means there is no prospect of recovery in late 2010 at best.

It sounds like you have been very successful there, but I am starting from a later date and and at a higher price. Of course the gold price could shoot up from here, but thats a view you need to take and a balanced portfolio is key.

Im holding 10% at present but I also own stock in rangold, bhp so approx 12%, which seems reasonable in this climate. I know some will say, even thats too high and 5% is more sensible. myself, I am tracking the price of gold and I have a level where I will increase my holdings. Who knows it may reach there any time soon. In the meantime, I am also monitor the price of oil and oil related shares with an eye on future.

Does your pessimistic view on equities extend to the emerging markets of say china and brazil?

Reaper

theGrinch wrote: »

I will look into a SIPP. I understand there are tax breaks to having one, however, what are the major disadvantages? Are there time restrictions?

The main restrictions I can think of are:
1) The most you can invest in any one year is 100% of your earnings (or £3600 if you are not earning)
2) There is a lifetime maximum, but it's around £1,750,000
3) You can't cash it in before age 55 at the earliest
4) When you cash it in you can only take up to 25% of it as a tax free lump sum. The rest must be used to purchase an annuity (monthly payment for life).

SIPPs can be expensive, so it is important to select a good one.

The one bit of good news is that if you are a taxpayer you get all the tax added too e.g. a lower rate tax payer pays in £80 but £100 gets added to the pension. It's even better if you are a higher rate tax payer. If you don't pay tax then don't bother.

Some argue taking out a stocks & shares ISA every year gives you more flexibility which is very true, but you miss out on the tax rebate.

Debt_Free_Chick

theGrinch wrote: »

8% holding spilt equally in BHP, Glaxo, Tesco, Restaurant Group, Randgold Resources, Royal Dutch Shell, HSBC, Kazakhmys
0.5% in each of Educational Development (EDD) and Advanced Medical (AMS).

Might be worth checking for duplication in the funds you've chosen - certainly, the FTSE100 tracker will be holding most of them and your total exposure might be more than you'd intended.

I assume you intend to hold these rather than trade them - otherwise, there's little point as you'll never trade them as cheaply or efficiently as the tracker.

DiggerUK

@ theGrinch,
If you already hold then hang on.
Mining stocks seem to suit you, so DYOR. This site has a forum were gold equities are discussed on a regular basis. (Wisdom and folly in abundance)
https://www.kitcomm.com/index.php

This site has a lot of market commentary on oil,mining and all things equitable.
http://seekingalpha.com/?source=headtabs

When you look at releases from UN ILO, IMF, World Bank, OECD etc. etc. predicting no end in site and a "possible increase in world unemployment of 20-50 million in 2009" you shouldn't need my conclusion.

Time for my cocoa, great match tonight hey.

Best of luck.

sabretoothtigger

Debt_Free_Chick wrote: »

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Might be worth checking for duplication in the funds you've chosen - certainly, the FTSE100 tracker will be holding most of them and your total exposure might be more than you'd intended.

I assume you intend to hold these rather than trade them - otherwise, there's little point as you'll never trade them as cheaply or efficiently as the tracker.

agreed, I think the main thing is an over emphasis on the ftse

10% in a FTSE 100 tracker
5% in a FTSE 250 tracker

These are the same thing pretty much, its weighted. Phase out the ftse 100 tracker to zero and put it into an asia tracker which will be spread across more currencies, countries, companies and market sectors

In comparison the ftse is relativity risky and is not diversified. As you are a british tax payer your future fortunes allready depend on it recovering so you've duplicated your exposure on four different fronts including hsbc, etc

I would not want to be in america personally. Again hsbc, etc are invested there anyway and the ftse parallels any progress so you are only opening up currency risk with a general tracker
Your onto the right idea anyway, you have a huge defecit in asia and other markets. I think 10% at least personally as its less risky then you perceive vs the ftse

You may prefer to do something like investing in standard chartered. Barclays has exposure to africa and south africa also

iii shows geographical bias, say if you cant find it

sabretoothtigger wrote: »

2007-2009 World Financial Crisis.svg
(2007-2009) WORLD FINANCIAL CRISIS
██ Countries in official recession (two consecutive quarters)
██ Countries in unofficial recession (one quarter)
██ Countries with economic slowdown of more than 1.0%
██ Countries with economic slowdown of more than 0.5%
██ Countries with economic slowdown of more than 0.1%
██ Countries with economic acceleration

theGrinch

Debt_Free_Chick wrote: »

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I assume you intend to hold these rather than trade them - otherwise, there's little point as you'll never trade them as cheaply or efficiently as the tracker.

in the main yes. Im prepared to be patient.

I think once there is a recovery underway at some point in the future oil, gold and copper will be three key drivers and I will be holding them. I also have an eye on the future re inflationary pressures hence glaxo and tesco also.

Restaurant group was a defensive purchase, so I may switch.

Advanced Medical and EDD were jim slater tips and are relatively modest amounts. I will hold.

HSBC, again its a long term buy.

In all candour, no one really knows ex ante how these shares will do in absolute or relative terms. They won't make or break me, but I see them as interesting side bets and an element of fun.

I am probably overweight in cash and over the next 9 months I will look more at fixed income sources.

sabretoothtigger

Time to Buy Emerging Markets, Says Oppenheimer Developing Markets

http://www!!!!bc.com/id/30110295

http://www. C N B C .com/id/30110295


Oppenheimer called Citigroups problems in autumn 07