OECD warns property is still 140% of it's historical average.

ad9898_3

Although I'm not saying it's gospel, it adds weight to my argument that we aren't anywhere near the bottom of this cycle.

House prices in Britain have nowhere near bottomed out even after a 20 per cent dive, the Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development warned yesterday.
Property values are still 140 per cent of their historic averages, suggesting further declines are unavoidable, the Paris forecaster warned.
Economist Petar Vujanovic of the OECD said: 'Affordability is still nowhere near back at what it has been historically. So we think it has got a way to go. House prices have fallen by only 20 per cent.'
The prediction came in a dark outlook that predicted Britain's economy will suffer a peak-to-trough slump totalling 5.3 per cent - more than double the loss of output recorded in the recession of the 1990s.
Unemployment will soar to 9.5 per cent next year, or nearly 3m, from an average 5.7 per cent in 2008, the OECD said.

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/money/article-1166253/Homeowners-face-falls-prices.html

phallett

Ah, Daily Mail and some chaps in Paris. Thanks for that.

But mortgage approvals have risen month on month. House prices, in my area, have not moved much, possibly up to 10% in the lesser than nice areas.

My main concern for this house price crash is that the same thing happens in cycles. I have been through 4 house price crashes, each one fundamentally bigger than the last one based on one thing: information. The only difference to this price crash from the last one is that we now have much better access to sources of information and misinformation. If you look at historical house prices,looking at the average fgures for house prices, then we're only around 1-2% off the top side fo the curve. Factor in that in most crashes we dip around 5-7% below the curve and you have us being very near the bottom of the crash. To be honest, it's my view that this could actually start going up next month as I have not known house prices to be as affordable now as they have been for 10 years.

But the only difference, in my opinion, is that now we have the Internet, we have forums, blogs, twitter, multiple TV and Radio channels and so many other outlets which allows for most people to suddenly become an expert in the area. seriously, if you take the tiem to look, you can find any amount of bearish or bullish experts with a reasonable grasp on reality (so avoid house price crash as they are ALL nutters) who also have enough 'evidence' to prove their arguments.

If this was the 80's or 90's, we'd be sat at home thinking another recession to weather, we'd like Bankers still but most of all, we wouldn't be looking at websites watching many soothsayers predicting armaggeddon and rioters, looters in the street.

It's a recession, we have them. House prices have dropped, will possibly drop further. People will lose their jobs, people will lose their homes. Then people will buy homes, prices will rise, jobs will return and the cycle will continue. I think it is called that's just how it is.

purch

OECD warns property is still 140% of it's historical average

How far back, are they "calculating" this 'Historical Average' ??

The Caves in Cheddar Gorge have skyrocketed in value since they became tourist attractions !!! You used to be able to get one for a sheeps jawbone and a pelt from a Mammoth !!!

Really2

purch wrote: »

How far back, are they "calculating" this 'Historical Average' ??

The Caves in Cheddar Gorge have skyrocketed in value since they became tourist attractions !!! You used to be able to get one for a sheeps jawbone and a pelt from a Mammoth !!!

I agree with you on that one purch.

House ownership as only been an option for most in the last 50 years. So are we going back to lord of the estate buying houses to rent to his surfs?

Cannon_Fodder

And yet, apparently, the Interest Rate of 300+ years ago, IS still relevant?

You can't have it both ways.

Dan:_4

Nice one ad - but it seems your getting a bit desprate with is one!!

Really2

Cannon_Fodder wrote: »

And yet, apparently, the Interest Rate of 300+ years ago, IS still relevant?

You can't have it both ways.

Well What is the historical on this it is nice to know a date.

Check out the OECD website nothing about it on there.

It is relevent if you can show the figures. So you can get historical IR rates of the BOE website. (BOE IR is not the mortgage rate is it but it reflects inflation during thoses times)

I can't get any figures to interperte this report.

Wookster

I fail to see how anyone can say the bottom is near.
- The news continues to get worse and worse
- banks are still desperately trying to recoup their losses from exposure to the US market, finance is still difficult to access
- Unemployment is only just starting to rise, and faster, in the UK
- We haven't seen the impact of the UK's sub prime loan delinquencies yet

There is still an awfully long way down to go before things start to look up.

Really2

Wookster wrote: »

I fail to see how anyone can say the bottom is near.
- The news continues to get worse and worse
- banks are still desperately trying to recoup their losses from exposure to the US market, finance is still difficult to access
- Unemployment is only just starting to rise, and faster, in the UK
- We haven't seen the impact of the UK's sub prime loan delinquencies yet

There is still an awfully long way down to go before things start to look up.

No Ooffence but no one as said on the bottom is near. You response is a bit OT for this thread.

ad44downey

ad9898 wrote: »

Although I'm not saying it's gospel, it adds weight to my argument that we aren't anywhere near the bottom of this cycle.

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/money/article-1166253/Homeowners-face-falls-prices.html

This confirms what I've been saying for some time. The house price crash is only in its infancy. Anyone who says different has blinkers on

Wookster

Really2 wrote: »

No Ooffence but no one as said on the bottom is near. You response is a bit OT for this thread.

You might think so - but I don't see what is going to suddenly change to put a bottom to the falls.

Do you?