OECD warns property is still 140% of it's historical average.

carolt

phallett wrote: »

Ah, Daily Mail and some chaps in Paris. Thanks for that.

But mortgage approvals have risen month on month. House prices, in my area, have not moved much, possibly up to 10% in the lesser than nice areas.

My main concern for this house price crash is that the same thing happens in cycles. I have been through 4 house price crashes, each one fundamentally bigger than the last one based on one thing: information. The only difference to this price crash from the last one is that we now have much better access to sources of information and misinformation. If you look at historical house prices,looking at the average fgures for house prices, then we're only around 1-2% off the top side fo the curve. Factor in that in most crashes we dip around 5-7% below the curve and you have us being very near the bottom of the crash. To be honest, it's my view that this could actually start going up next month as I have not known house prices to be as affordable now as they have been for 10 years.

But the only difference, in my opinion, is that now we have the Internet, we have forums, blogs, twitter, multiple TV and Radio channels and so many other outlets which allows for most people to suddenly become an expert in the area. seriously, if you take the tiem to look, you can find any amount of bearish or bullish experts with a reasonable grasp on reality (so avoid house price crash as they are ALL nutters) who also have enough 'evidence' to prove their arguments.

If this was the 80's or 90's, we'd be sat at home thinking another recession to weather, we'd like Bankers still but most of all, we wouldn't be looking at websites watching many soothsayers predicting armaggeddon and rioters, looters in the street.

It's a recession, we have them. House prices have dropped, will possibly drop further. People will lose their jobs, people will lose their homes. Then people will buy homes, prices will rise, jobs will return and the cycle will continue. I think it is called that's just how it is.

It's certainly true that the information available now is much greater.

But do you not think that will increase the falls? Just as it worked to make the peak higher.

Now, if people know someone has paid x for a house in a street of similar houses, no-one is going to pay more than x.

Instead, they'll pay x minus any reported further falls nationally since the date of the sale.

Because - apart from anything else - it's all the banks will lend them.

Having just done the maths on my area, which has already seen 20%+ falls (on anything that's selling, which is very little), I'd say 140% overepriced is more or less exactly spot on, relative to both historic prices and local incomes.

carolt

Rollerball wrote: »

Why the abusive language. Can't you debate in a civil manner?

Leave the poor guy alone.

He just can't debate in a civilised manner.

Feel sorry for him.

ess0two

carolt wrote: »

Leave the poor guy alone.

He just can't debate in a civilised manner.

Feel sorry for him.

Good to see you back trolling,was rather boring in here when you left,although you've just reminded me how tedious you really are.

ess0two

Rollerball wrote: »

Why the abusive language. Can't you debate in a civil manner?

Call that abusive?you must lead a sheltered life.

StevieJ

Rochdale_Pioneers wrote: »

The people with their head in the sand are not the ones saying what I have just said, its the ones clinging to their statement that the housing market will continue to implode and studiously ignoring any and all facts which disagree with this narrative. Things MAY fall much further. Signs are that they may not.

You mean like

LONDON (Dow Jones)--The U.K. purchasing managers index for the manufacturing sector improved significantly in March from a record low in February, data from economics research group Markit Economics showed Wednesday, a fresh indication that the government's efforts to stimulate the economy may be working.

StevieJ

ess0two wrote: »

Call that abusive?you must lead a sheltered life.

I thought he was extracting the !!!!

carolt

ess0two wrote: »

Good to see you back trolling,was rather boring in here when you left,although you've just reminded me how tedious you really are.

Well done - you proved my point almost immediately.

Don't be offended - I daresay you're a sweetie really. Bit lacking on the old sense of humour front.

But nobody's perfect.

FoxtonsRIP

Carol, don't feed the Troll, he's really not worth it.

Conrad

phallet - prices are down a minimum 20%. If you claim otherwise - I'll do the usual and call E/A's in your area.

The report ignores the fact the pure interest only mortgage now accounts for a significant proportion so in effect people feel they can afford to pay more for a property (note many lenders file figures that indicate thier interest only mortgages are covered by an ISA - It's an illusion - of course people tick the ISA box as they want the mortgage to go through)

ess0two

FoxtonsRIP wrote: »

Carol, don't feed the Troll, he's really not worth it.

Yawn.......dont worry the sockmaster will be along soon,to add you to his team.

ANOTHER ONE OUTED,is the phrase.