Premium Bond Calculator Discussion

innovate

worldtraveller wrote: »

I've had a £1 premium bond since 1957 (AB5*****) and it's not won anything!

keep hoping ;-)

beefcheif

I held 30k for a year or so in PB
some months I would win 25quid other months I would win 50quid
but there were runs of months and nothingness.
Having put the money in Santander Easy saver I am guaranteed and DO get around 55quid per month

pays your money and you takes your chances

lesmor

I have held the max PB for a number of years and the return has been below average.
The most I won was £1000 but now it has been £25 a one bond win or 50 a two bond win.with some months nothing at all.
While I held them I was a 40% tax payer so I believed it made sense.
But having retired due to ill health 18mnth ago and now a 20% tax payer I have reviewed BP and no longer think they are worth holding the max.
You can get a better return even with the derisory rates on offer and after paying tax, but the thing that sways it is the effect of inflation on the capital.
So I have reluctantly cashed mine in,probably should have done it 18mnth ago but I can tell you it is not an easy decision,I always found an excused to hold on to them.
In saying all that if you have a small holding i.e. £100.00, does the argument against PB really matter,as said you have paid your stake in perpetuity in the hope of a big win, and the effect of inflation on the capital doesn't matter, in fact in time it could be that investing in PB was of the most sensible thinks you have done as the capital will have the value of pocket money.

oldfadedhat

I don't think anyone is taking into account the fact that no premium bond number ever wins twice! Thus if one holds £30,000 and receives the odd £25 here and there the odds are increased each time one has a win. I have been keeping a note of family winning numbers (lucky us :j) for many years and never once has the same number won again!! I wonder if this is indeed a FACT or an unbelievable coincidence?

eskbanker

oldfadedhat wrote: »

I don't think anyone is taking into account the fact that no premium bond number ever wins twice!

That's because it's not a fact!

oldfadedhat wrote: »

I have been keeping a note of family winning numbers (lucky us :j) for many years and never once has the same number won again!! I wonder if this is indeed a FACT or an unbelievable coincidence?

It may be a fact for your particular numbers but you can't extrapolate that to say that any given bond won't win twice, the draw is completely random. It's hardly an unbelievable coincidence when there are tens of billions of PBs in circulation with very long odds of any individual one winning once, never mind twice.

Edit to add: the odds don't change after a win either, each bond has the same chance of winning each time round.

MB330

I'd like to see the probability for a £1m prize if your partner also has maximum £40k investment. Does it simply halve?

i.e. over a year - 1 in 98000 becomes 1 in ~50000?

and then what about if you have a family of 5 and they each have maximum invested, does it just keep halving the more people you add?

talexuser

I've had £5000 since Jan 99. This was purely punt money (ISAs and pension maxed out, Halifax, Now 2 x Santanders, 2 x TSB, Nationwide Flex, 2 x Tescos, plus fixes etc etc so rainy day funds taken care of).

In all that time I have won £1075 in a fairly constant steam of £25s, but nothing for the past 2 years. I keep meaning to cash in since think the odds now are so pathetic, but if you don't need the money urgently and have not much choice left to get a decent interest rate...

GoGas

It would be useful if the tool was updated to allow total holding of £80k to allow chance for effusively the whole holding and also an option to indicate if marginal tax rate is 40 or 50% tax? many people may already hold NISA so it is not a mater of either or.

I wonder what probability of is of £80k holding making the 1.35% and how this would compare with non NISA building society fund when higher rate tax is considered.

colsten

You can't hold PBs jointly. If you want to calculate PBs for 2 people, that's easily done in 2 calculations.

How does tax come into it? PB "wins" are tax free.

How do ISAs come into it? Entirely different decision whether to gamble with PBs or to save or invest in ISAs.

Not sure what a "non NISA building society fund" is - can you explain further please?

As a btw, 1.35% is below inflation, so even if you did make that average in PBs, you would lose money.

[Deleted User]

Winning the lottery?

I'm sure everyone would like to know how the odds compare with the odds of winning the lottery.

I realise that would depend on how much you SPEND on the lottery so I guess it would have to be pound for pound.

I always tried to resist the lottery as the odds seem so poor and I think it is so unfair that one person wins like 13 million when it would be fairer for 13 people to win a million each.

I have had various amounts of Premium Bonds over the years - Decreasing amounts unfortunately, needs must - and when I had a decent amount in there I used to get £25 payouts, probably 2 out of every 3 months, sometimes it would be £50. So I always imagined that Premium Bonds offered better odds of winning a million than the lottery did, but I don't know.

In as far as winning a million goes, how do they fare against each other?