A Splendid Graph

confused31_2

if you look at the statistics for empty house it as been over 700,000 from 2001 it did go down to 680,000 and now its back up again to 780,000.

House prices will go down but i dont think they will go back to 1999 levels, buyers are coming back, i personally dont think the market has picked up, because of stubborn sellers and buyers listening to people saying houses are going to come down 50%.

No one wants to take the chance, but mortgages are on the up, so some buyers are coming back.

I have also noticed on right move a lot of properties have been removed, and there are not has many houses for sale, as the this time last year.

Maybe people are just going to ride the storm out?

macaque_2

lukekelly wrote: »

From Buttonwood's Economist blog.



This suggests that we have further to fall but that we should not necessarily expect a fall to the levels seen in the 90's.

(The comparison with the USA is fun but tells us more about the availability of land than anything about future price movements.)

GDP = consumption + gross investment + government spending + (exports − imports)

Currently:

1. The majority of consumed goods in the UK are being imported
2. A large slice of UK services is financial churning
3. A high proportion of investment is property recycling
4. Govenment spending has risen by £300 billion over the past 10 years
5. The balance between exports and imports is going the wrong way

Any discussion which links house prices to GDP is only as reliable at the GDP numbers themselves. Our current GDP has all the sustainability of a sand castle at the low tide mark. No one can say how far the clock will wind itself back but I'm amazed that anyone would be rash enough to nominate 2000 as the floor.

sabretoothtigger

The gdp graph shows about average 3% over the last 10 years I'd hope that wasnt considerably inflated though I have heard some people say we've been in recession for many years now and just not realised it

kennyboy66_2

macaque wrote: »

GDP = consumption + gross investment + government spending + (exports − imports)

Currently:

1. The majority of consumed goods in the UK are being imported
2. A large slice of UK services is financial churning
3. A high proportion of investment is property recycling
4. Govenment spending has risen by £300 billion over the past 10 years
5. The balance between exports and imports is going the wrong way

Any discussion which links house prices to GDP is only as reliable at the GDP numbers themselves. Our current GDP has all the sustainability of a sand castle at the low tide mark. No one can say how far the clock will wind itself back but I'm amazed that anyone would be rash enough to nominate 2000 as the floor.

1. The majority of consumed goods in the UK are being imported But imports are not included in GDP.
   
2. A large slice of UK services is financial churning Financial services account for about 4.1% of direct employment in the UK. In France & Germany it is about 3.2%
3. A high proportion of investment is property recycling. Selling one house to another person does not affect GDP one bit (unless it is a new build - and we don't actually build many houses)
4. Govenment spending has risen by £300 billion over the past 10 years. True
5. The balance between exports and imports is going the wrong way. No its not. http://www.statistics.gov.uk/cci/nugget.asp?ID=199

1 out of 5

Must try harder.

macaque_2

kennyboy66

"But imports are not included in GDP."
Exactly! Have you missed the point?

"Financial services account for about 4.1% of direct employment in the UK. In France & Germany it is about 3.2%"
Don't be daft. In 2007 financial services account for 11% of GDP. A huge number of jobs (both private and public sector) are dependant on that figure.

Selling one house to another person does not affect GDP one bit (unless it is a new build - and we don't actually build many houses)
Stop being silly. House sales two years ago were generating billions in stamp duty which was going into government spending. There are also an army of services associated house transactions (conveyancing fees, estate agent fees, insurance products, build work, furnishing etc). The house price trends also sponsored MEWing to the tune of £10s billions which fed into the economy.

"True" (Govenment spending has risen by £300 billion over the past 10 years).
Are you familiar with the phrase 'elephant in the room'.

"No its not. (The balance between exports and imports is going the wrong way)."
Good grief, did you even read the graph you posted? It stated that "the UK's deficit on trade in goods and services was £3.6 billion in January, compared with the deficit of £3.2 billion in December 2008" With the problems in the city and manufacturing, we can expect this picture to get uglier.

"1 out of 5 Must try harder."

My advice to you is to take more care when putting people down. If you have a go at someone and get it wrong, you can end up looking foolish. Why not get one of your parents to check your posts before submitting them.

kennyboy66_2

macaque wrote: »

kennyboy66

"But imports are not included in GDP."
Exactly! Have you missed the point?

"Financial services account for about 4.1% of direct employment in the UK. In France & Germany it is about 3.2%"
Don't be daft. In 2007 financial services account for 11% of GDP. A huge number of jobs (both private and public sector) are dependant on that figure.

Selling one house to another person does not affect GDP one bit (unless it is a new build - and we don't actually build many houses)
Stop being silly. House sales two years ago were generating billions in stamp duty which was going into government spending. There are also an army of services associated house transactions (conveyancing fees, estate agent fees, insurance products, build work, furnishing etc). The house price trends also sponsored MEWing to the tune of £10s billions which fed into the economy.

"No its not. (The balance between exports and imports is going the wrong way)."
Good grief, did you even read the graph you posted? It stated that "the UK's deficit on trade in goods and services was £3.6 billion in January, compared with the deficit of £3.2 billion in December 2008" With the problems in the city and manufacturing, we can expect this picture to get uglier.

My advice to you is to take more care when putting people down. If you have a go at someone and get it wrong, you can end up looking foolish. Why not get one of your parents to check your posts before submitting them.

Oh dear,

1) If imports fall please tell me the impact on GDP ?

2) You used the word investment and related it to property recycling.
Buying and selling a house is not investment when related to GDP

3) If you think the movement in 1 month on the balance of trade, constitutes a trend, then more fool you.

You are embarassing yourself now.

tomterm8

Generali wrote: »

It's interesting that US house prices have got steadily cheaper compared to GDP - even the boom was only a blip on the downward trend.

That's how it should be!

Perhapse part of that is that the US house building industry is massively efficient, often using pre-fab techniques and only doing a minimum amount of work on site - some houses are actually built in less than a week, whereas we have brickies working on site for months in the middle of the british winter with the roof off.

sabretoothtigger

The trend in the gap is towards zero, nice news for once

I'd rather have bricks and mortar and we pay more to get more there I think.
But I do like those 4 bedroom houses with indoor swimming pool and 5 acres of land for 200k that I remember seeing on tv, even if they are only wood.
I think the location might have been fairly remote though in that case, must be some bargains out there now everywhere



My statistical analysis is based on long term trends:

lostinrates

tomterm8 wrote: »

Perhapse part of that is that the US house building industry is massively efficient, often using pre-fab techniques and only doing a minimum amount of work on site - some houses are actually built in less than a week, whereas we have brickies working on site for months in the middle of the british winter with the roof off.

A shame ful admission of being bedridden with sky when I was in Italy....i used to watching a programme where a team of tv presenters/builers and interior designer would tturn up at 'poor people's' shabby homes: most were infact very poor conditions, but the people owen the house and the land, and then in TWO DAYS they would knock down the old property and rebuild really gorgeous in an American way- prefab houses, AND get them decorated and furnished. It made me cry almost every day

sabretoothtigger

They showed something like that on Channel four recently, the program where the house is always something new and different in its build

The foundations took longer but the actual house came from a germany factory with a work crew who took a week to assemble it like giant lego or the way the Amish do it even


Roughly remember a figure of like 100k for cost not including the land, it was a big house