A Splendid Graph

lukekelly_2

From Buttonwood's Economist blog.



This suggests that we have further to fall but that we should not necessarily expect a fall to the levels seen in the 90's.

(The comparison with the USA is fun but tells us more about the availability of land than anything about future price movements.)

sabretoothtigger

They have been saying this for at least a year, america has lower prices, cheaper land and housing

I think both could use a return to 2002 or earlier prices but only relative to their own market, that would put both markets closer and the uk market does look to have been more volatile from that graph

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With house price inflation 'sustainable' between '96 and 2000, and the bubble appearing after this date, I expect prices to fall back to 2000-2001 levels, with undershoot to '99 prices in some areas. Market funding became mainstream for banks after 2000, hence the ridiculous rise, that funding has now disappeared.

carolt

Well that would be nice. Suit me beautifully.

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carolt wrote: »

Well that would be nice. Suit me beautifully.

It would suit me too, however I do actually believe it will happen. All the information that can be gathered about historical house prices, the economy, previous crashes, market funding, public/personal debt, unemployment... etc.. it all points in one direction.

Rochdale_Pioneers

We still have to factor in the demand push factor. Once prices settle back to whatever level they settle back to, we will still have a shortage (a large one in some places) of family housing. More punters going after less properties will inevitably push the prices up. Clearly this will be by less than the silly rises we have seen due to tighter restrictions on mortgages, but the increases will happen.

StevieJ

ad9898 wrote: »

With house price inflation 'sustainable' between '96 and 2000, and the bubble appearing after this date, I expect prices to fall back to 2000-2001 levels, with undershoot to '99 prices in some areas. Market funding became mainstream for banks after 2000, hence the ridiculous rise, that funding has now disappeared.

We will ignore inflation then

Dan:_4

carolt wrote: »

Well that would be nice. Suit me beautifully.

Im sure it would.......

......................Good luck with it.

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Rochdale_Pioneers wrote: »

We still have to factor in the demand push factor. Once prices settle back to whatever level they settle back to, we will still have a shortage (a large one in some places) of family housing. More punters going after less properties will inevitably push the prices up. Clearly this will be by less than the silly rises we have seen due to tighter restrictions on mortgages, but the increases will happen.

Oh dear god, not this lame response again !!, there is no shortage, no fields of tents, there are literally thousands of houses for sale. 21 million houses in the UK, that'a one for every 3 people. 1 million lie empty, some are not in the most desireable places granted, but it beats sleeping in a bus shelter.

There is no shortage, never was and once the 'amateur, dinner party' BTL'rs who bought in the couple of years upto the crash start to squeal, we will see the real truth, which is actually an over supply.

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StevieJ wrote: »

We will ignore inflation then

What !!, I didn't think we had any.:D

ukcarper

21 million is that houses or properties