Deflation Tomorrow - Poll

tomterm8

Generali wrote: »

UK RPI figures are out tomorrow and it seems certain that the UK will be experiencing deflation for the first time since the inter-war period.

Is this a bad thing and if so, who is to blame?

No, it's not a bad thing as long as it is temporary and doesn't become embedded in expectations.

At the moment, even if RPI figures post negative, I dont think we are in deflation, because the fall in price has not been sustained long enough, and because there is still a large amount of expectation that inflation will be high due to government policies and devaluation. and the consequences of deflation will be far more serious than necessary because too much debt exists in our economy.

Who is to blame? I'd say that I've always thought that there was likely to be deflation once the baby boom generation started to retire, but that it came about earlier than I expected because of bad management and bad regulation of the banks.

I naturally voted for thatcher, because she is responsible for all bad things to happen in the world, even though I don't know exactly how she caused the mess and the Labour government has been in power long enough to change anything they didn't like from the Thatcher days.

RabbitMad

Wookster wrote: »

So far the only 'deflation' I see is correction over way over egged asset prices. I don't think this is a bad thing, in fact it is long overdue, and neither do I think it is deflation proper. Other decreases (such as energy) are not persistent and so do not qualify as deflationary.

Other things such as food and imported goods continue to rise in price at quite alarming levels (food being at 10%!).

Overall this points to a more self sufficient UK which if realised would be a good thing.

^ What he said.

ukcarper

tomterm8 wrote: »

No, it's not a bad thing as long as it is temporary and doesn't become embedded in expectations.

At the moment, even if RPI figures post negative, I dont think we are in deflation, because the fall in price has not been sustained long enough, and because there is still a large amount of expectation that inflation will be high due to government policies and devaluation. and the consequences of deflation will be far more serious than necessary because too much debt exists in our economy.

Who is to blame? I'd say that I've always thought that there was likely to be deflation once the baby boom generation started to retire, but that it came about earlier than I expected because of bad management and bad regulation of the banks.

I naturally voted for thatcher, because she is responsible for all bad things to happen in the world, even though I don't know exactly how she caused the mess and the Labour government has been in power long enough to change anything they didn't like from the Thatcher days.

Some messes can’t be cleared up

1echidna

I've ducked this one. Seems to me a bit like blaming someone for the weather and not all that constructive as to finding ways out of the mess. I can see oil prices staying low for two or three years but then they must surely start to edge up again carrrying a lot of things with them, as reserves are depleted. I can't see deflation being a long term problem, although it may well be an excuse for the printing of money to devalue debts.

tomterm8

I can see oil prices rising quite quickly. The reason is that vast amounts of chinese money is moving into commodities. Private chinese investors are no longer buying treasuries, they are buying oil.

ninky_2

i fear the 'global financial crisis' is playing the part of the lib dems in this poll and splitting the vote.

thelawnet

skap7309 wrote: »

Deflation??

I was out on Saturday and it cost me;

£10 for ingredients for a weekend fry-up, :eek:

Really? £4 for good sausages and bacon. £1 for eggs, £1 for bread. £6 not £10.

£30 for a tacky Pizza Hut lunch for 2, :eek:

You must be mad! They've got vouchers everywhere, cheap buffets at lunch time, discounts after 3pm, etc. And the food is horrid cooked centrally, with lots of reformed meat, etc.

You can eat out much better for £30 than Pizza Hut.

skap7309

thelawnet wrote: »

Really? £4 for good sausages and bacon. £1 for eggs, £1 for bread. £6 not £10.


You must be mad! They've got vouchers everywhere, cheap buffets at lunch time, discounts after 3pm, etc. And the food is horrid cooked centrally, with lots of reformed meat, etc.

You can eat out much better for £30 than Pizza Hut.

First part - not where i live daaaan saaff, also coffee, milk and Saturday paper need to be added.

Second part - my first venture into a pizza hut in my 26 long years. Without a doubt will be my last. G/f and i eat out once or twice a month and everytime has been a better (and far cheaper) experience. It just suprized me that such a mainstream name was so overly expensive and a poor overall experience. I genuinely would have been happier with a £4 McDonalds and that is saying something.

Anyway, back on topic.......... :rolleyes:

ninky_2

tomterm8 wrote: »

Private chinese investors are no longer buying treasuries, they are buying oil.

extra virgin or sunflower?

tomterm8

ninky wrote: »

extra virgin or sunflower?

Almond. Them chinese are getting posher.