When will HP go back up to the mean?

crazygaijin

chewmylegoff wrote: »

yes, all guessing, and who knows what shape the graph will be.

only one thing is certain in my view, and that is that you won't know when the very bottom was in your particular area of the country until a fairly long time after it has come and gone.

Very true, you wont know until the bounce upwards is clear.

But it shouldnt stop us discussing it and keeping a close eye on the ball as it were.

I agree with all those who think the 2% drop per month will continue for a few yrs.

Niksan

novazombie wrote: »

Dont know what your trying to say Niksan?

That graph is showing we have a long way to fall yet.

Im saying prob 3 yrs from now we will be down another 70%, thats if we keep falling about 2% per month for another 3 years.

That will be the very bottom that overshoots the mean, and then climbs back up to where history wants it to be.

I'm being anal here, and I'm not sure if you're gauging a 70% drop on say a £100000 valuation three years ago, or if your 70% is based on the incremental drops.

My point was, to be down in 3 years by 70% the 2% a month would have to exponentially increase.

On a £100000 valuation and a persistant 2% drop each month, the valuation after 3 years would be £48321.32 and not £30000.

so would be more 5 years for a 70% drop.

sorry

crazygaijin

Good point.

I think 3 to 5 years before they are 70% down.

Its not going to continue falling exactly 2% every month, Feb was 2.4% for example. Surely it will accelerate as we hit capitulation we are nowhere near there yet.

There are still plenty of people about still in the denial stage of that graph.

carolt

Generali wrote: »

If it helps I know where my bottom is. I also know the whereabouts of my elbow and that it's not my bottom.

Does that qualify me to join the Cabinet?

I'm afraid that over-qualifies you.

carolt

Niksan wrote: »

I'm being anal here

Look, Generali, someone else who knows where his bottom is. That makes 2 of you in the Cabinet already.

Niksan

We're saved :beer: free choc-dips and tango for all.

Generali

carolt wrote: »

Look, Generali, someone else who knows where his bottom is. That makes 2 of you in the Cabinet already.

Hey, we're almost quorate!

Another 648 and we've got a Parliament.

crazygaijin

crazygaijin wrote: »

These 2 graphs are similar, so its easy see what the future of our own housing index in London is going to be. The only question when will we be at that stage when it starts to go back up to the mean?


As you can see, it's a virtual mirror of our own housing index (below).

Our housing market has played out right to the script. While there are some at the 'fear' stage – those that need to sell, but can't – for the most part I think it's fair to say that Joe Public is still very much 'in denial' and thinks that things are about to 'return to normal'. In other words, we are entering a bull trap – just as we did in 1991, when there was a brief rally before further declines. We are nowhere near capitulation. That is still to come.

I think many are not understanding my thread I am refering to after prices have fallen bellow the mean 100K average, when will they come BACK UP to that 100K av.


Oh and Even the Telegraph is joining our 70% club, well 65% anyway.

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/e...rise-soon.html

1984ReturnsForReal_2

crazygaijin wrote: »

I think many are not understanding my thread I am refering to after prices have fallen bellow the mean 100K average, when will they come BACK UP to that 100K av.

If they do fall below then £100k isnt the average mean anymore.


& what makes you think that a socialist Government would encourage house price growth when they can pick up social housing of the cheap?

chucknorris

1984ReturnsForReal wrote: »

what makes you think that a socialist Government would encourage house price growth when they can pick up social housing of the cheap?

But the Conservatives are not socialists