When will HP go back up to the mean?

Niksan

But that's not a 72% drop from the price from three years ago is it ?

novazombie

Niksan wrote: »

But that's not a 72% drop from the price from three years ago is it ?

Dont know what your trying to say Niksan?

That graph is showing we have a long way to fall yet.

Im saying prob 3 yrs from now we will be down another 70%, thats if we keep falling about 2% per month for another 3 years.

That will be the very bottom that overshoots the mean, and then climbs back up to where history wants it to be.

workingNOMAD_2

If prices really drop 70% then I for one will be buying lots of BTLs and so will many others...

It won't happen! Prices are about to turn upwards...

Yoshua

workingNOMAD wrote: »

If prices really drop 70% then I for one will be buying lots of BTLs and so will many others...

It won't happen! Prices are about to turn upwards...

Are you serious? Or was that a joke?

If you are not making a joke I am interested are you the only one or is there anyone else who think prices are about to turn upwards?

I am in the 70% club over the next 3 to 5 years.

RDB

workingNOMAD wrote: »

If prices really drop 70% then I for one will be buying lots of BTLs and so will many others...

It won't happen! Prices are about to turn upwards...

Yes you are right. Flash Gordy will fix everything while the rest of the world is going down the pan here in the UK we will be the only place that will actually "turn upwards". After all houses always go up in value right? So yes we will go up even more. That graph is going to be proved wrong, we are going to go upwards even further away from the mean. So high above the mean that if you look down you cant even see it anymore.

As unemployment soars past 3 mil and wages drop house prices will go past 10 to 15 times earnings but its ok because somehow banks will find money to start lending again.

So yes Prices are about to turn upwards...


For the record I am now in the 70% club (sayonara 50% club) if they keep falling at the current rate of 2% per month then in 3 years. But who knows maybe sooner, the rate of decline will accelerate when we are in capitulation fase.

chewmylegoff

crazygaijin wrote: »

These 2 graphs are similar, so its easy see what the future of our own housing index in London is going to be. The only question when will we be at that stage when it starts to go back up to the mean?


As you can see, it's a virtual mirror of our own housing index (below).

Our housing market has played out right to the script. While there are some at the 'fear' stage – those that need to sell, but can't – for the most part I think it's fair to say that Joe Public is still very much 'in denial' and thinks that things are about to 'return to normal'. In other words, we are entering a bull trap – just as we did in 1991, when there was a brief rally before further declines. We are nowhere near capitulation. That is still to come.

this, and your subsequent comment about being interested in the bit where it overshoots the mean, appear to suggest that you're wondering how you can predict when the bottom of the housing market (i.e. the overshoot) is in order to buy at the best possible time.

the answer is that no-one knows and it won't be apparent until afterwards, if there is an "overshoot" at all.

just because the historic movements of the UK housing market correlate to that graph, it does not means that the future movements of UK housing market will also correlate to that graph. the graph is not an authority. i think you would be ill advised to try to base decisions on such thinking, if that is, indeed, what you are thinking.

crazygaijin

chewmylegoff wrote: »

this, and your subsequent comment about being interested in the bit where it overshoots the mean, appear to suggest that you're wondering how you can predict when the bottom of the housing market (i.e. the overshoot) is in order to buy at the best possible time.

the answer is that no-one knows and it won't be apparent until afterwards, if there is an "overshoot" at all.

just because the historic movements of the UK housing market correlate to that graph, it does not means that the future movements of UK housing market will also correlate to that graph. the graph is not an authority. i think you would be ill advised to try to base decisions on such thinking, if that is, indeed, what you are thinking.

That is indeed what I am thinking, apart from the fact that I am not basing decisions on that graph. Just interested what everyone thinks when the bottom will be.

Its all guess work because anything could happen to change things. But I am sticking with my guess of between 3 and 5 yrs.

chewmylegoff

crazygaijin wrote: »

That is indeed what I am thinking, apart from the fact that I am not basing decisions on that graph. Just interested what everyone thinks when the bottom will be.

Its all guess work because anything could happen to change things. But I am sticking with my guess of between 3 and 5 yrs.

yes, all guessing, and who knows what shape the graph will be.

only one thing is certain in my view, and that is that you won't know when the very bottom was in your particular area of the country until a fairly long time after it has come and gone.

Generali

If it helps I know where my bottom is. I also know the whereabouts of my elbow and that it's not my bottom.

Does that qualify me to join the Cabinet?

confused31_2

I think house prices will go up some time in the next 10 years, how far they will fall i dont know, but they dont seem to be falling that much by me.