David Cameron warns of full-scale depression

chucky

Wookster wrote: »

Is that the same BoE that totally failed to see the impending crisis? Yup they have a motherload of credibility :rolleyes:

would you say that they have that motherload of credibility that the IMF have?
they've got much more wrong but it seems that you like the numbers they report

Wookster wrote: »

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/britain-will-be-only-nation-still-in-recession-next-year-1647356.html

Britain will be only nation still in recession next year

IMF says every other major economy will be growing again by 2010.

The British economy is heading for its worst year since the Great Depression, according to the latest predictions from the International Monetary Fund (IMF). The fund shocked analysts during a briefing in which it was revealed that the UK will see its economy shrink by 3.8 per cent in 2009, and a further 0.2 per cent in 2010 – the only large economy predicted to still be in decline next year as well as this.

Looks like we're in for a rough ride.

tomterm8

elona wrote: »

On the other hand isn't capital punishment still possible for treason?

No. it isn't possible for treason, high treason and piracy were abolished as capital crimes in the UK on July 31st, 1998 under The Criminal Justice Act 1998.

chunky79

lynzpower, having read your last post i could not agree more.

I now know how important it is to be at home with my children. I also know too many that go to work and state its easier than staying at home. Most that state how its som much easier are barely getting a wage after paying childcare fees. I took time out, i left an 18k a year job to be a cleaner on minimum wage! I am lucky that my OH work and earns enough for us to live on. Its the best choice i have ever made. I have no job stress and plenty of time to give to my kids but also a little bit of me time at work!

I will get my skills back if i need to, but not sure if i want that life now. In my last job i spent most of my evenings going over what i needed to do the next day, now my time is all for my family!

And as for your trust in the Tories you are not alone, i certainly don't trust them! Who can we trust? They all seem to spout the same rubbish. Although i do seem to like Ken clarke but then i also like Vince cable too.

StevieJ

chucky wrote: »

would you say that they have that motherload of credibility that the IMF have?
they've got much more wrong but it seems that you like the numbers they report

You only have to check the IMF revisions from January to tell you how on the ball they are

treliac

[quote=lynzpower;19929199Geting tax credits so you can go to work so you can pay someone else to look after your kids is something I totally disagree with yet people feel that they have to do this as a full time occupation. the cost of living in this country has to come down and that is going to happen by us spending less and not thinking its totally normal to spend eg 400 quid a week having someone look after your baby for you.

RANT OVER!!!!!![/quote]

All of what you have said.

And whilst at the other end of the spectrum we pay mothers to stay at home and look after their own children - through the benefits system - allegedly encouraging some to have children for that purpose.

Keep ranting!

dandy-candy

lynzpower wrote: »

I was having a conversation on another thread a few weeks ago, and was bemoaning the difficulty in having children these days if you do not want to claim benefits. It is seen as totally normal thing to do , by those who have degrees, and are professionals! Thise who probably would have been thought of as "conservatives" before.but still they claim, why- because a) its there b) the economy has been able to run out of all control so you need 2 parents working 40 hours a week ewach t omeet the basics. UNACCEPTABLE and we are reaping the rewards of that now as we turn out children form primary school who cant read. I could read BEFORE I went to primary school and was reading Blytons from 4 yo. Why? Because my mum taught me to and because I had proper one to one attention not warehoused with 35 other kids with nursery nurses with no GCSEs ( seen this in action)

Geting tax credits so you can go to work so you can pay someone else to look after your kids is something I totally disagree with yet people feel that they have to do this as a full time occupation. the cost of living in this country has to come down and that is going to happen by us spending less and not thinking its totally normal to spend eg 400 quid a week having someone look after your baby for you.

RANT OVER!!!!!!

I think you have picked up on a massively ignored problem here - the Gov should be encouraging mums to stay at home with their kids not getting them out to work. If more mum's were at home for a start burglary figures would drop, kid's would (hopefully) get more decent home cooked meals so better health, they would get more time/guidance so better help with school work and learn what behaviour is acceptable. Naturally there will always be some crap parents out there so some kids will be trouble however they are reared, but I think there would be a great improvement in society over all. More tax breaks for families with mum (or dad) at home!

StevieJ

itsnever2lateisit? wrote: »

If the Tories win the next election, then it will be 1979 all over again. Not saying that's a bad thing, but it will be mighty painful. They will need to buy off some of the lower paid, so expect a tax cut carrot, then an emergency budget to implement said cut financed by tax increases not mentioned in their manefesto eg VAT at 20% (or even higher)

The Paxman interviews should be fun

Graham_Devon

Coming in from a non party political perspective, according to the news stories (BBC mainly)

- We have had the worst banking crisis since the 1930's. And it's worth bearing in mind when we compare t with the 1930's, we are comparing it against a set of done and dusted figures. We are not even half way through this yet.
- Car manufacturing is the lowest since records began.
- Unemployment rose the quickest in a month since some time (cant remember when!!), and these are really spun figures compared to the figures they are comparing them against, which makes it a lot worse.
- House reposessions look set to overtake anything we have seen in the last few decades.
- We have record debts
- Government debt is over twice what was anticipated
- The IMF states that the UK will have thw worst deficit in the western world.
- The government will have to borrow at least 11% of GDP, the biggest that has ever been seen, next year, just to keep afloat.

I think all those who said this wasn't / isnt as bad as the 90's / 70's recession must be eating humble pie by now, not that they will ever admit it.

For the UK at least, I think we can comfortably predict 1930's style depression, but in a different era, which crucially means the effects will not be the same.

It's going to get VERY hard out there.

lynzpower

dandy-candy wrote: »

I think you have picked up on a massively ignored problem here - the Gov should be encouraging mums to stay at home with their kids not getting them out to work. If more mum's were at home for a start burglary figures would drop, kid's would (hopefully) get more decent home cooked meals so better health, they would get more time/guidance so better help with school work and learn what behaviour is acceptable. Naturally there will always be some crap parents out there so some kids will be trouble however they are reared, but I think there would be a great improvement in society over all. More tax breaks for families with mum (or dad) at home!

Exactly! This souds like the most common sense approach of all

tomterm8

Graham_Devon wrote: »

Coming in from a non party political perspective, according to the news stories (BBC mainly)

- We have had the worst banking crisis since the 1930's.
- Car manufacturing is the lowest since records began.
- Unemployment rose the quickest in a month since some time (cant remember when!!), and these are really spun figures compared to the figures they are comparing them against, which makes it a lot worse.
- House reposessions look set to overtake anything we have seen in the last few decades.
- We have record debts
- Government debt is over twice what was anticipated
- The IMF states that the UK will have thw worst deficit in the western world.
- The government will have to borrow at least 11% of GDP, the biggest that has ever been seen, next year, just to keep afloat.

I think all those who said this wasn't / isnt as bad as the 90's / 70's recession must be eating humble pie by now, not that they will ever admit it.

For the UK at least, I think we can comfortably predict 1930's style depression, but in a different era, which crucially means the effects will not be the same.

It's going to get VERY hard out there.

At the moment, on the local scale it is looking very much like an average systemic banking crisis with pretty much average prognosis. Much like the 1952 recession, but much worse than the 1970's and 1982. In all recessions since 1952 the world economy has grown, this time it will shrink according to the latest IMF forecasts.

It would still take staggeringly bad economic management to decend into 1930's, but with this government anything is possible. It is certainly as severe an financial crisis as we have suffered since the panic of 1907 - worse than the Panic that started the Great Depression.