Respected Analyst : House prices 'could drop another 55%' and leave Britain bankrupt

Kenny4315

Why would you get slaughtered ? A 20% margin means you have no real idea ... don't you think ?

35% is my prediction, and I'm virtually always there or thereabouts on the mark. for example, bought £120k in 2000 sold £324k sept 2007, shares in at time of Iraq war start FTSE 3000 ish (can't remember exact) out April 2007 FTSE just under 7000, etc.

Kenny4315

Graham_Devon wrote: »

Why do you say 50% simply won't happen? Were already 2 fifths of the way there.

Or your margin for error ....

There are loads of guys who sold at the right time who are waiting for the right time to get back in, and have the cash sitting on deposit doing nothing.

Graham_Devon

Kenny4315 wrote: »

Why would you get slaughtered ? A 20% margin means you have no real idea ... don't you think ?

35% is my prediction, and I'm virtually always there or thereabouts on the mark. for example, bought £120k in 2000 sold £324k sept 2007, shares in at time of Iraq war start FTSE 3000 ish (can't remember exact) out April 2007 FTSE just under 7000, etc.

Good for you.

I'm not going to pretend to have such a large ego. I think it's far too soon to be able to predict an exact percentage as thingsw change so often, so largely at the moment.

So 50-70%.

worldtraveller

Kenny4315 wrote: »

There are loads of guys who sold at the right time who are waiting for the right time to get back in, and have the cash sitting on deposit doing nothing.

Shame they didn't put some of it into Gilts!

b0rker

Graham_Devon wrote: »

Good for you.

I'm not going to pretend to have such a large ego. I think it's far too soon to be able to predict an exact percentage as thingsw change so often, so largely at the moment.

So 50-70%.

An absoutely superb 3 bed semi in Inverness was about £180K in 2007 at the top of the market.

To suggest that a house of that calibre would come down to £90K is pretty much verging on insane.

The very second a house like that would come on the market at anywhere near that price it would have scores of people putting offers in. As we have an offers over system up here the demand would have the house prices up near the 25% (£135K) off from peak region again in days. I would be massively surprised if it would not sell for even more by the time 'bidding' was closed.

That is despite the offers over being entirely blind!

People love a bargain!

chucky

Graham_Devon wrote: »

Good for you.

I'm not going to pretend to have such a large ego. I think it's far too soon to be able to predict an exact percentage as thingsw change so often, so largely at the moment.

So 50-70%.

across which Index Graham and is this across the country including London

beingjdc

b0rker wrote: »

An absoutely superb 3 bed semi in Inverness was about £180K in 2007 at the top of the market.

To suggest that a house of that calibre would come down to £90K is pretty much verging on insane.

A flat down the road from me sold for £325k at around the peak. It has been sitting in an estate agent's window being gradually reduced for six months. It hit £175k and has now disappeared.

We will see when the Land Registry update whether it was sold, and if so what for, or whether the seller has given up and is renting it out. I was looking vaguely at the rental potential (not for me) of a property in the Midlands this week - sold for £150k in Summer 2007, currently on the market for £80k.

Price is relative, as is the definition of "a bargain".

Of course if the formerly £180k house went on the market at £90k today, it would be snapped up. But say it goes on at £130k, and isn't. Prices keep falling. Suddenly, a 4-bed place goes on at £130k. It gets snapped up, sure, but people see that as the price for a 4-bed, so the 3-bed has to be reduced, maybe to £115k. Everyone's scared though, there are no jobs, why not just rent and keep the money in the bank 'just in case'. The old lady in the other half of the semi dies, and the family just want a quick sale with no hassle. It's not in a great condition, so they cut the price to £99,999 to attract interest. It sells, fairly quickly. Now people are looking at the £115k semi. Well, next door was only worth £100k, and this is a falling market... how about £90k?

kt63_2

I'd love house prices to fall another 55% as I'm looking to move to a bigger house with a garden (due to birth of a child). However I don't actually think they will.

Sometimes I think people on this board confuse what they'd like to happen with what is likely to happen. I'd like it if the value of my house fell to £1. That way I'd be able to buy a house ten times as nice for £10. However I don't think such a scenario is likely.

Graham_Devon

b0rker wrote: »

An absoutely superb 3 bed semi in Inverness was about £180K in 2007 at the top of the market.

To suggest that a house of that calibre would come down to £90K is pretty much verging on insane.
!

In all seriousness, why not?

We are in a different era of mortgages now.

What was the price of that house in 1999 for instance? If it was at 180k at the top of the market, that would suggest it was around 70-80k near the bottom of the market in 1997.

Why is it insane to think this could happen again? It's happened before.

It's happened in America. Why can it not possibly happen here?

dervish

:rolleyes:

b0rker wrote: »

An absoutely superb 3 bed semi in Inverness was about £180K in 2007 at the top of the market.

To suggest that a house of that calibre would come down to £90K is pretty much verging on insane.


People love a bargain!

To suggest in 1995 when the same house was about 60k that it would reach 180k in 2007 would also be insanse!!!

Can you not underdstand the cyclical nature of events?