Think inflation worries are over?

lostinrates

Really2 wrote: »

The main point is a lot cheaper than a year ago and home energy prices are going to fall over this month.
So yes food inflation may be 9% YOY (But is actually lower than Dec's figure) but with other items taken in to account inflation is actually falling and that is fairly indisputable.

Just like to point out that for those of us who live in the sticks oil is most commonly a home energy source too. We are quite frankly pleased that our electiricty is reliable and for most people the gas bottles would be a step too far..........:D

Wookster

Really2 wrote: »

As I said my fill up yesterday per litre was cheaper than 3 weeks ago.

How many service stations are there in the UK? Can you explain how a random sample of one to be representative of service stations across the country?

Really2 wrote: »

The main point is a lot cheaper than a year ago and home energy prices are going to fall over this month.
So yes food inflation may be 9% YOY (But is actually lower than Dec's figure) but with other items taken in to account inflation is actually falling and that is fairly indisputable.

So far we've seen ~10% price cuts afaik. Energy will continue to be less important component of consumers spending as we move from winter to spring & summer. Of course this is welcome but is it really the panacea we're all looking for? And does this mean that inflation is no longer a worry?

Radiantsoul

Wookster wrote: »

http://business.timesonline.co.uk/tol/business/economics/article5844672.ece





Not a good sign. Worse to come probably.

Food is not a massive proportion of people's expenditure and so it is probably not so important in terms of inflation. Housing, consumer goods and energy bills are falling which are offsetting.

I am not sure you can pick up an isolated set of goods and services and say they represent inflation. Food prices are probably heavily affected by the falling value of sterling as well.

Really2

Wookster wrote: »

And does this mean that inflation is no longer a worry?

So do you think we should be fighting inflation now even though deflation is happening?

Inflation is not a problem compared to last year so I do not really see higher food prices as the whole basis of inflation. It accounts for around 20% of our personal monthly expenditure.

Fighting inflation last year caused by high oil prices was a white elephant but IR had to go up as a response so I do sort of fail to see what your point is as deflation is the problem at the moment.

Really2

lostinrates wrote: »

Just like to point out that for those of us who live in the sticks oil is most commonly a home energy source too. We are quite frankly pleased that our electiricty is reliable and for most people the gas bottles would be a step too far..........:D

I looked at a oil fired house last year during the hight of oil prices. I soon thought twice.;)

chucky

Wookster wrote: »

http://business.timesonline.co.uk/tol/business/economics/article5844672.ece





Not a good sign. Worse to come probably.

it's always good to investigate and not get all excited about the headlines Wookster
generalising is always a good way to start a post, it get's the dramatic effect i guess

"The soaring price of fresh meat drove overall UK shop price inflation to a six-month high in February but economists do not expect the rise to influence the Bank of England's decision on interest rates today."

"...the rising price of fresh meat accounted for the bulk of the increase. Cattle, sheep and pig prices have jumped by 19 per cent, 38 per cent and 75 per cent respectively over the past 12 months."
http://www.independent.co.uk/news/business/news/inflation-at-sixmonth-high-as-food-prices-jump-1637856.html

Wookster

Really2 wrote: »

So do you think we should be fighting inflation now even though deflation is happening?

Inflation is not a problem compared to last year so I do not really see higher food prices as the whole basis of inflation. It accounts for around 20% of our personal monthly expenditure.

20% is quite a large chunk of any house hold's expenditure!

I've been banging on about this for some time: what is deflating now is house prices. This is no bad thing as house prices are way above the long term average.

What continues to inflate are all imported goods together with essentials such as food. Continued inflation of essentials & imported goods will continue to erode disposable incomes which will have a further deflatory effect on house prices.

Really2

Wookster wrote: »

20% is quite a large chunk of any house hold's expenditure!

I've been banging on about this for some time: what is deflating now is house prices. This is no bad thing as house prices are way above the long term average.

What continues to inflate are all imported goods together with essentials such as food. Continued inflation of essentials & imported goods will continue to erode disposable incomes which will have a further deflatory effect on house prices.

80% is non food add to that my mortgage going down nearly £700 in 6 months (Now paying back £1000 capital per month) and people on here say rents are falling.
Petrol expenditur per month is down about £100+ than 7 months ago.
My gas and electric coming down 7.5% this month.

I can see where you are coming from but just looking at food inflation is a white elephant.
!!!!!! kept banging on about oil inflation and $200 barrels of oil last year again a white elephant.

As I said we can only fight what is infront of us as defaltion is the major thing sorry that is what we fight

like it as been said yes imported electricals are up but who is buying big electrical purchases at the moment?
So even things like that are taken in to the inflation figures so i think you are making a mountian of a mole hill when you look at the overall picture

StevieJ

Radiantsoul wrote: »

Food is not a massive proportion of people's expenditure and so it is probably not so important in terms of inflation. Housing, consumer goods and energy bills are falling which are offsetting.

I am not sure you can pick up an isolated set of goods and services and say they represent inflation. Food prices are probably heavily affected by the falling value of sterling as well.

Tell that to the pensioners and unemployed.

Wookster

Really2 wrote: »

80% is non food add to that my mortgage going down nearly £700 in 6 months (Now paying back £1000 capital per month) and people on here say rents are falling.
Petrol expenditur per month is down about £100+ than 7 months ago.
My gas and electric coming down 7.5% this month.

What's your point? That we're in a good situation because your monthly outgoings are decreasing?

Really2 wrote: »

!!!!!! kept banging on about oil inflation and $200 barrels of oil last year again a white elephant.

Why is this relevant to this discussion?

Really2 wrote: »

As I said we can only fight what is infront of us as defaltion is the major thing sorry that is what we fight

Actually the CPI is still at 3%, some 1% over the target range.

Really2 wrote: »

like it as been said yes imported electricals are up but who is buying big electrical purchases at the moment?

So the impact of this is simply discounted because Really2 thinks no one is buying imported goods such as electricals? :rolleyes: