New worry over depth of downturn

bubblesmoney

StevieJ wrote: »

Not a oil site (is that a pun?), but some knowledgeable oil guys post.
http://boards.fool.co.uk/Messages.asp?bid=50029

I am broadly aware of the info in your first first two links, not sure what you are trying to prove with your oil v gold.

not trying to prove anything with the last graph (oil:gold ratio) but just that its fallen 70% or there abouts and am just exploring options for the future for my investments. no hidden motives:p , just sick of seeing my cash savings not getting me anywhere in bank accounts(i am not the sort to lock in for few years etc). was just asking you because you seem to be dabbling on the contrarion front on stocks if i remember right from some other posts of yours. so was just keen on your opinion if you were into oil investments as well. i dont know people who are into that presently (although could find out through some people if i poked around probably). hence the query directed to you and chucky.

ps: probably should have asked that on the savings and investments forum. but seemed ok when i posted that ratio as well with the rest of the stuff above as an addendum.

StevieJ

bubblesmoney wrote: »

not trying to prove anything with the last graph (oil:gold ratio) but just that its fallen 70% or there abouts and am just exploring options for the future for my investments. no hidden motives:p , just sick of seeing my cash savings not getting me anywhere in bank accounts(i am not the sort to lock in for few years etc). was just asking you because you seem to be dabbling on the contrarion front on stocks if i remember right from some other posts of yours. so was just keen on your opinion if you were into oil investments as well. i dont know people who are into that presently (although could find out through some people if i poked around probably). hence the query directed to you and chucky.

ps: probably should have asked that on the savings and investments forum. but seemed ok when i posted that ratio as well with the rest of the stuff above as an addendum.

Fair enough, and yes I have a falling knife portfolio that contains Shell, Barclays and I have sold Rio (although I was planning to keep them all). I must say I struggle to see why Shell was £12.30 approx (oil price was probably $60-$80 then and divi yield 8%) and is now around £17 at oil price of $40 Must be the new super
defensive I am happy to hold oil as I thought that the dividend was sacrosanct although there are currently some stories of the divi coming under pressure (I believe Shell has never cut the divi, so you pays your money and takes your choice).
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/markets/4788515/BP-and-Shell-hit-by-talk-of-cutting-dividends.html
Contrast and compare Remember those exams:eek:
http://www.cityam.com/index.php?news=30665

pizzagirl

handful wrote: »

http://www.thisismoney.co.uk/news/article.html?in_article_id=478869&in_page_id=2&ct=5

The Office for National Statistics said economic output in the fourth quarter of 2008 was 1.9% lower than in the same period in 2007. It was weaker than the earlier estimate of a 1.8% fall and the worst performance since the second quarter of 1991.



Also, the expected surge in exports due to the weakness of Sterling seems to be another red herring, dropping 5.5% in the last quarter of last year.

I just wish the government would be a bit more honest with us. They were telling us a while ago that the recession would be over by mid 2009. They know this isn't true, recessions are never that short-lived. Why can't they be a bit more honest?

treliac

pizzagirl wrote: »

I just wish the government would be a bit more honest with us. They were telling us a while ago that the recession would be over by mid 2009. They know this isn't true, recessions are never that short-lived. Why can't they be a bit more honest?

It's either downright dishonesty or total incompetence. Either way, they've gotta go.

StevieJ

bubblesmoney wrote: »

you can see how our present problems compares to the past ones on this and remember we are no where near the end of the present problems. so we might touch or beat the 89% loss of share market as happened in the great depression

A very interesting chart, the stock market is a forward discounter so is likely to encompass a lot of the bad news that we are expecting through 2009, what it doesn't include of course is bad news that we are not expecting, there lies the risk.

ruggedtoast

The Europeans are worried about sterlings weakness because we're sucking up a lot of their consumer spending. I have friends in Europe who gave up shopping in their own countries altogether for consumer durables, and have been getting everything off of Amazon UK.

Edit. One example, finally, where the UK being in the EEA but out of the euro has been of benefit.