New worry over depth of downturn

handful

http://www.thisismoney.co.uk/news/article.html?in_article_id=478869&in_page_id=2&ct=5

The Office for National Statistics said economic output in the fourth quarter of 2008 was 1.9% lower than in the same period in 2007. It was weaker than the earlier estimate of a 1.8% fall and the worst performance since the second quarter of 1991.

Having been higher before the news, sterling slipped 0.2 cents against the dollar to $1.44 and 0.59 of a cent against the euro to €1.1251. The pound has collapsed against a host of currencies and a leaked document today highlighted EU concerns over the slide against the euro. European finance ministry officials said the 'very rapid' drop in sterling 'raises questions about the financial stability of the British economy'. It said the currency's weakness 'is a source of concern for the euro area'.


Also, the expected surge in exports due to the weakness of Sterling seems to be another red herring, dropping 5.5% in the last quarter of last year.

Reaper

handful wrote: »

Also, the expected surge in exports due to the weakness of Sterling seems to be another red herring, dropping 5.5% in the last quarter of last year.

You have to be careful with statistics as you can make them say anything you want. World demand is down so everybodies exports are struggling, however ours actually improved slightly in December whereas imports dropped sharply:

imports down 2.5pc to £27.1bn, compared with a 0.3pc increase in exports

As for the currency while we had big falls we are now quite a long way off the recent low point so I don't know why the Europeans are suddenly bringing this up now - well actually I can guess... people have been starting to look at their economies and currency and realise they aren't doing so well so no surprise they point to Britain and say "No, look over there".

ad44downey

handful wrote: »

http://www.thisismoney.co.uk/news/article.html?in_article_id=478869&in_page_id=2&ct=5

The Office for National Statistics said economic output in the fourth quarter of 2008 was 1.9% lower than in the same period in 2007. It was weaker than the earlier estimate of a 1.8% fall and the worst performance since the second quarter of 1991.

Having been higher before the news, sterling slipped 0.2 cents against the dollar to $1.44 and 0.59 of a cent against the euro to €1.1251. The pound has collapsed against a host of currencies and a leaked document today highlighted EU concerns over the slide against the euro. European finance ministry officials said the 'very rapid' drop in sterling 'raises questions about the financial stability of the British economy'. It said the currency's weakness 'is a source of concern for the euro area'.


Also, the expected surge in exports due to the weakness of Sterling seems to be another red herring, dropping 5.5% in the last quarter of last year.

More evidence that Brown's gamble with our money and even our children's and grandchildren's money is failing spectacularly. Stop it now Brown before we go bust.

bubblesmoney

you can see how our present problems compares to the past ones on this and remember we are no where near the end of the present problems. so we might touch or beat the 89% loss of share market as happened in the great depression

StevieJ

handful wrote: »

'.


Also, the expected surge in exports due to the weakness of Sterling seems to be another red herring, dropping 5.5% in the last quarter of last year.

Then again if you look at the ultra strong Jap Yen and a 45% collapse of exports in Japan we may see a different picture :rolleyes:

bubblesmoney

StevieJ wrote: »

Then again if you look at the ultra strong Jap Yen and a 45% collapse of exports in Japan we may see a different picture :rolleyes:

but the japanese being in trouble as well wont allievate our miseries will they.

StevieJ

bubblesmoney wrote: »

but the japanese being in trouble as well wont allievate our miseries will they.

The only point being made was the link to currency strength and export quantity :rolleyes:

mewbie_2

handful wrote: »

a leaked document today highlighted EU concerns over the slide against the euro.

I bet it did. It's a currency race to the bottom to start selling stuff, and we are winning. Think Eurovision Knockout and Mervyn just played our joker...

StevieJ

mewbie wrote: »

I bet it did. It's a currency race to the bottom to start selling stuff, and we are winning. Think Eurovision Knockout and Mervyn just played our joker...

Spot on, we would have stability within the Euro :rotfl: tell that to the Irish.

bubblesmoney

steviej, chucky etc since i gather than you are into buying stocks now, you might find these articles interesting.

edited by me to remove personal details. apologies for any inconvenience caused.

see these articles http://www.dshort.com/articles/2009/january-in-down-years.html

http://www.dshort.com/articles/market-volatility.html

guess this last one corelates with the long wave valuation theory of the dow
http://www.dshort.com/charts/SP-Composite-10-year-real-rr-price-recession-overlay-large.gif

ps: was wondering what people have to say about this one below. i know about the contango effect. but still wondering if you dabble in the oil sector as well. any good websites to read up on oil investments??

StevieJ

Not a oil site (is that a pun?), but some knowledgeable oil guys post.
http://boards.fool.co.uk/Messages.asp?bid=50029

I am broadly aware of the info in your first first two links, not sure what you are trying to prove with your oil v gold.