Graph in 10 years time

novazombie

JayScottGreenspan wrote: »

For all those 'same price' comments, I think the key point here is that someone buying after 10% on the way up knows prices are back on their way up. Someone buying ont he way down merely hopes there is only another 10% to go.

One is almost risk free, one is quite the opposite.

Of course, if you can get a bigger discount on the way down that will sway it a bit. But don't fool yourself - lots of people believe 'oh, I got it for 10% below market value' in the same way that 90% of people believe they are a better than average driver.

Agreed and we still have a long way to fall yet. Some are saying another 20-30%.

More like 35-45% to go still... Remember, it always overshoots, and boy, is this going to be the mother of all overshoots.

tara747

pickledpink wrote: »

According to some of the Doomers property was going to drop 50% by LAST summer!!!:rotfl: :rotfl: :rotfl: SOME property (only some) has dropped by an average 12%. Some properties have dropped by just 5%; a few awful hard-to-sell properties have dropped by 25%; and some properties haven't dropped at all!

HUGE drops just haven't happened! And they're not going to.

I haven't got the energy to go through the whole of your misinformed post (try telling people who bought in 2007 that in 2017 their home will be worth 3x what they paid for it, yeah right, more like half). But the bit in bold is patently not true and there is evidence to support this. How about Northern Ireland, where prices fell 34.2% in 2008 alone? That is a huge drop by anybody's standards. It can and probably will happen across the rest of the UK, might take a little longer but y'know we FTBs are a patient lot.

ukcarper

JayScottGreenspan wrote: »

For all those 'same price' comments, I think the key point here is that someone buying after 10% on the way up knows prices are back on their way up. Someone buying ont he way down merely hopes there is only another 10% to go.

One is almost risk free, one is quite the opposite.

Of course, if you can get a bigger discount on the way down that will sway it a bit. But don't fool yourself - lots of people believe 'oh, I got it for 10% below market value' in the same way that 90% of people believe they are a better than average driver.

how do they know that there not going to drop again

thegibdog

I would normally just ignore a post like pickledpink's but I thought some people might take it seriously so...

pickledpink wrote: »

The trouble with keep putting it off is it usually never happens.:rolleyes: You end up missing the boat and get left behind.

This appears to only be relevant if you've a boat to catch.

Besides, does it really matter what it's worth on paper? If you intend on making it your home and don't intend to sell for many years, it's value is not important.

Its value might not be important but it's important that you have more money to spend on living by paying less for your property.

In 10 years time it will ALWAYS be worth at least 3 times what you paid for it, and history proves that.:money:

I'm sorry that's just rubbish.

Another thing to ponder on...........do you really want to put your life on hold while trying to grab the best bargain? You may never grab it, and just think of all those missed years you'll never recoup enjoying a wonderful homelife in YOUR OWN home!

Surely nobody wants to "put their life on hold" whilst paying crippling mortgage payments because they paid far too much for a house?

I know someone who wasted all their childrens' early years by refusing to buy a camcorder until the prices had shot down. By the time they did buy one their childrens' childhood had gone and had never been captured on film!:mad:

How exactly are years wasted by them not being recorded?? Surely they still actually lived them????

But the difference with camcorders and homes are that homes do increase in value eventually, and you'll always be chasing a dream if you're mug enough to believe all the doom-mongers on here!

Yes homes generally do increase in value but they also decrease. See above.

According to some of the Doomers property was going to drop 50% by LAST summer!!!:rotfl: :rotfl: :rotfl: SOME property (only some) has dropped by an average 12%. Some properties have dropped by just 5%; a few awful hard-to-sell properties have dropped by 25%; and some properties haven't dropped at all!

Many properties have dropped by 50% but the more relevant point is they are still dropping and are very likely to continue to do so.

HUGE drops just haven't happened! And they're not going to.:D

Again, see above.

JayScottGreenspan

ukcarper wrote: »

how do they know that there not going to drop again

No guarantees, obviously, but the housing market usually exhibits a lot of inertia - if it's falling then chances are it will keep falling, if it rising then chances are it will keep rising.

Anyway, I reckon it will be flat for a few years once it bottoms out, which makes it an even easier call.

JayScottGreenspan

pickledpink wrote: »

Besides, does it really matter what it's worth on paper? If you intend on making it your home and don't intend to sell for many years, it's value is not important. In 10 years time it will ALWAYS be worth at least 3 times what you paid for it, and history proves that.:money:

Er, yeah, it makes a big difference, actually.

Consider two fictional people, let's call them Derek and Clive.

Derek gets a £200k mortgage in 2007 and buys a 2 bed flat.
Clive thinks that's a bit pricey and wait until 2010 - prices have come down and he gets a £200k mortgage and buys a three bed terraced property.

Go forward in time to 2020:
Derek has a flat worth £300k and mortgage outstanding of £130k.
Clive has a house worth £450k and a mortgage outstanding of £150k.

bubblesmoney

pickledpink wrote: »

The trouble with keep putting it off is it usually never happens.:rolleyes: You end up missing the boat and get left behind.

Besides, does it really matter what it's worth on paper? If you intend on making it your home and don't intend to sell for many years, it's value is not important. In 10 years time it will ALWAYS be worth at least 3 times what you paid for it, and history proves that.:money:

Another thing to ponder on...........do you really want to put your life on hold while trying to grab the best bargain? You may never grab it, and just think of all those missed years you'll never recoup enjoying a wonderful homelife in YOUR OWN home!

I know someone who wasted all their childrens' early years by refusing to buy a camcorder until the prices had shot down. By the time they did buy one their childrens' childhood had gone and had never been captured on film!:mad:

But the difference with camcorders and homes are that homes do increase in value eventually, and you'll always be chasing a dream if you're mug enough to believe all the doom-mongers on here!

According to some of the Doomers property was going to drop 50% by LAST summer!!!:rotfl: :rotfl: :rotfl: SOME property (only some) has dropped by an average 12%. Some properties have dropped by just 5%; a few awful hard-to-sell properties have dropped by 25%; and some properties haven't dropped at all!

HUGE drops just haven't happened! And they're not going to.:D

see my earlier post about house prices multiplying many fold indefinitely disproportionate to income, see my post number 22 on this link.

so house prices in the long term can never mathematically rise above affordable earnings-house price ratio.

if you think that prices of property will be 3 times in 10 years then you are a bigger optimist than the wilsons. so probably you should be buying them out and every other BTL and you would be the richest person in the uk.

best of luck with that venture though. but i think even luck wont save you if you venture down that path.

harryhound

A few 10's of thousands?