Perceptions of the recession

SGE1

stevetodd wrote: »

How on earth could you miss it, my personal experience/observations:
1. Kaupthing Edge (there was also NR, BB and Icesave)
2. Property prices collapsing
3. Properties not selling
4. BOE base rate at 1%
5. Friends mentioning work drying up
6. Woolies disapearing
7. FTSE nosediving below 4000 (now below 4500)

Sorry but I think you're missing the point. Are you suggesting that all these are directly affecting you? Ie that you were a Kaupting Edge customer, your house is on the market and won't sell, you learn about BoE base rates and the FTSE through alternative sources (ie not the media) etc? Work 'drying' up is not necessarily the sympton of a recession. It could very easily just mean that that particular company had a poor business strategy, and went bust as a result of their own incompetence. The concept of bankrupcy wasn't created in 2008...

It's not about missing the evidence, it's about not necessarily linking the evidence to a recession.

Conrad

SGE1 wrote: »

It's not about missing the evidence, it's about not necessarily linking the evidence to a recession.

I see where your'e comming from.
As I've touched on before, the way we process the world is in large part down to our position on the optimist/pessimist - 'reality spectrum'.

Most of us think our own position on the reality spectrum is merely 'the most realistic' position based on 'the facts:rolleyes: ', but of course only 1 position is actualy 100% accurate, and all others are to varying degrees less accurate.

So the escence of percieved reality is affected by our individual processing and importantly, filtering of the facts.

Have you noticed how people take mental shortcuts:D
For example, they type that equates Woolworths closing = recession evidence, whereas a more realistic less biased thinker might also factor in the fact Woolworths was a depressing space with a very losely focused model.

Furthermore, a rationalist will also by definition not filter out the fact more and more online trading abounds, that of course means the death of many high nstreet operators.

stevetodd

SGE1 wrote: »

Sorry but I think you're missing the point. Are you suggesting that all these are directly affecting you? Ie that you were a Kaupting Edge customer, your house is on the market and won't sell, you learn about BoE base rates and the FTSE through alternative sources (ie not the media) etc? Work 'drying' up is not necessarily the sympton of a recession. It could very easily just mean that that particular company had a poor business strategy, and went bust as a result of their own incompetence. The concept of bankrupcy wasn't created in 2008...

It's not about missing the evidence, it's about not necessarily linking the evidence to a recession.

I am not mising the point, yes they are all directly effecting me!

I had 33k in Kaupthing edge
I have 5.5 properties and my wife 3.5 so obvioulsy keep in touch with market values
I have 5 tracker mortgages so obviously know what the BOE base rate is
I also have about 35k in shares or trackers (so obviously I keep in touch with the market)

I think its fairly obvious a recession is ocurring you don't have to be Sherlock Holmes to work it out from the clues. Do you think I would not know how much my savings, investments and mortgages would be?

Yes of course companies can go under without a recession, but it's a case of putting all the clues together, as I said you don't need to be Sherlock Holmes!

GrammarGirl

stevetodd wrote: »

90%! You think 90% of the population didn't have accounts with either NR, Kaupthing, BB or Icesave AND doesn't look at property prices AND what the base rate is AND has no friends AND is not aware of what the FTSE is doing! I think you have a misconception about Mr Average. Not to mention the explosion of restaurant deals (which I forgot to add to my original list)

I would be one of those 90%. Many people have absolutely no connection to the financial market other than what they see on the news or read in the papers. I rent, have a regular current account, no savings and no interest in the stock market. How would I know if it wasn't for the media?

GrammarGirl

stevetodd wrote: »

Yes exactly no one looks because the recession is well known, thank you. You can't have it both ways ie that people don't look cos there is a recession but they wouldn't look anyway (cos they would). I do concede that the less intelligent would be less likely to know though.

So, those without a vested/regular interest in the financial movements of the country are less intelligent?

Let me ask you, could you explain a passive verb or nominalisation to me without googling it? If not you're obviously less intelligent than me.

stevetodd

GrammarGirl wrote: »

So, those without a vested/regular interest in the financial movements of the country are less intelligent?

Let me ask you, could you explain a passive verb or nominalisation to me without googling it? If not you're obviously less intelligent than me.

TBH no I couldn't but when was that ounced as the test of intelligence, what if I said have you a 1st class honours degree (as I have) then would I be more intelligent than you? Of course not that would be just as ridicleous as your statement!

I did not say those that would not spot the recession were not intelligent! although you seem to have read it as that.

GrammarGirl

stevetodd wrote: »

TBH no I couldn't but when was that ounced as the test of intelligence, what if I said have you a 1st class honours degree (as I have) then would I be more intelligent than you? Of course not that would be just as ridicleous as your statement!

So when was having knowledge of the intricate financial workings of an economy decided as the test of intelligence? My statement was about as ridiculous as your own, and was meant to be to prove my point.

tyllwyd

Conrad wrote: »

IHave you noticed how people take mental shortcuts:D
For example, they type that equates Woolworths closing = recession evidence, whereas a more realistic less biased thinker might also factor in the fact Woolworths was a depressing space with a very losely focused model.

I was one of the people who mentioned Woolworths closing as something that might have been picked up on as a pointer towards recession. I think you are taking your own mental shortcuts ... the original question was would you have been aware of a recession without the media.

The closure of Woolworths was a very high profile event that a lot of people would have been aware of. And yes, Woolworths was in trouble anyway, but in our local high street in the last ten years or so I can think of the Cooperative department store closing and Littlewoods closing, which were both similar sized stores, but which were both replaced within a few months, whereas Woolworths is still closed and no talk yet of anything else opening in that site. And it isn't only that one store, there are a number of other shops nearby which have closed. So even someone who didn't read the newspapers might walk down our local high street and wonder why the shopping centre is looking so empty.

lostinrates

stevetodd wrote: »

I did not say those that would not spot the recession were not intelligent! although you seem to have read it as that.

That's how I read it too...before your edit.

stevetodd

GrammarGirl wrote: »

So when was having knowledge of the intricate financial workings of an economy decided as the test of intelligence? My statement was about as ridiculous as your own, and was meant to be to prove my point.

It wasn't, that is not what I said, but thank you for admitting that your statement was ridicleous.

What I said was:

I do concede that the less intelligent would be less likely to know though.

Which is not the same as saying only the intelligent would know (which you seem to be reading it as). There is a world of difference between saying 'would be less likely to know' and would not know. But for the record appologies to anyone that misunderstood and took exception to it, what I obviously menat was:

To those that could see the clues the more intelligent ones would be able to draw the recession conclusion from it, obvioulsy those not party to the clues would have no clues to conclude from!