Perceptions of the recession

davilown

stevetodd wrote: »

How on earth could you miss it, my personal experience/observations:
1. Kaupthing Edge (there was also NR, BB and Icesave)
2. Property prices collapsing
3. Properties not selling
4. BOE base rate at 1%
5. Friends mentioning work drying up
6. Woolies disapearing
7. FTSE nosediving below 4000 (now below 4500)

Eh how would you have noticed these without the media/internet etc????

whathavewedone

Yep I would have noticed when we remortgaged our house and were told by the surveyor it had gone down in value. Due to the media that didn't come as a surprise.

Since then I've heard from a lot of friends who work in commercial property that they have nothing to do and are fearful for their jobs. Meantime I've had a lot of calls from agents about jobs in property litigation (been out of it for a couple of years to have my kids) which they are desperate to fill - a sure sign of a recession as litigation/property litigation always booms in recessions. I know of friends working in other law firms where residential/commercial property departments are on 4 day weeks (in London).

My oh has a small business (thankfully not dependent on credit/overdrafts etc) and he has noticed a big difference. All the chefs that order from him are frightened for their jobs and have been told to cook meals for £2 a head for directors/clients. This time last year people were ordering whatever they liked and didn't care about the cost. As banking clients etc drift away he is trying to get business from universities etc which are hopefully more recession proof.

Then there's all the shops closing down on our high streets plus 3 pubs. It's all a bit grim. You'd have to live under a stone really not to notice.

ad9898_3

stevetodd wrote: »

How on earth could you miss it, my personal experience/observations:
1. Kaupthing Edge (there was also NR, BB and Icesave)
2. Property prices collapsing
3. Properties not selling
4. BOE base rate at 1%
5. Friends mentioning work drying up
6. Woolies disapearing
7. FTSE nosediving below 4000 (now below 4500)

1. Well I did have a KE account, but the majority of people didn't
2. Unless you have your face stuck in an EA window, wouldn't notice
3. If you don't own, or know people selling, you perhaps wouldn't know
4. Brown/BoE reduced in the good times, also without media, would know what it is ?
5. Some people have no friends:D, or they all work in the public sector.
6. You could say just another badly run shop.
7. Without media, i would guess 90% of the country wouldn't know.

Ok, slightly contrived answers, I will admit, but it could be the case for lots of people. In fact when you think about it, look at current asking prices for houses, some people have no idea we are in a full scale crash;), I dare say also there is a significant majority of the population who think the FTSE is a shoe shop.:D

lostinrates

Makes me wonder....would we have had boom without media?

No 'this weeks must buys', no car reviews, no interior design magazines/tv programmes etc

Flip side of course is, how would we get information on things like KE accounts...for better or for worse, pension planning, how best to protect our selves financially?


SGE1...this has been a great thread, thank you!

BlondeHeadOn

lostinrates wrote: »

Makes me wonder....would we have had boom without media?

No 'this weeks must buys', no car reviews, no interior design magazines/tv programmes etc

Flip side of course is, how would we get information on things like KE accounts...for better or for worse, pension planning, how best to protect our selves financially?


SGE1...this has been a great thread, thank you!

Yes we would have had this boom without the nmedia, there have been booms in the past (tulip fever, south sea bubble etc.) when news was a lot harder to come by and mostly by word-of-mouth.

I was actually looking out for a recession about 2 years ago, as I couldn't believe the debt-fuelled housing bubble could be sustained, and it looked like a typical bubble to me (no economics guru, just read a lot and lived through the 70's and 80's).

The media didn't tell me anything much for a long time - in fact for ages the genral view was that the doom-mongers like me were all completely crazy because "it's different this time..."!

stevetodd

ad9898 wrote: »

1. Well I did have a KE account, but the majority of people didn't
2. Unless you have your face stuck in an EA window, wouldn't notice
3. If you don't own, or know people selling, you perhaps wouldn't know
4. Brown/BoE reduced in the good times, also without media, would know what it is ?
5. Some people have no friends:D, or they all work in the public sector.
6. You could say just another badly run shop.
7. Without media, i would guess 90% of the country wouldn't know.

Ok, slightly contrived answers, I will admit, but it could be the case for lots of people. In fact when you think about it, look at current asking prices for houses, some people have no idea we are in a full scale crash;), I dare say also there is a significant majority of the population who think the FTSE is a shoe shop.:D

90%! You think 90% of the population didn't have accounts with either NR, Kaupthing, BB or Icesave AND doesn't look at property prices AND what the base rate is AND has no friends AND is not aware of what the FTSE is doing! I think you have a misconception about Mr Average. Not to mention the explosion of restaurant deals (which I forgot to add to my original list)

BuddyBonthenet

BlondeHeadOn wrote: »

Yes we would have had this boom without the nmedia, there have been booms in the past (tulip fever, south sea bubble etc.) when news was a lot harder to come by and mostly by word-of-mouth.

I was actually looking out for a recession about 2 years ago, as I couldn't believe the debt-fuelled housing bubble could be sustained, and it looked like a typical bubble to me (no economics guru, just read a lot and lived through the 70's and 80's).

The media didn't tell me anything much for a long time - in fact for ages the genral view was that the doom-mongers like me were all completely crazy because "it's different this time..."!

Good post - I agree. If you've lived through recession before I think you are more aware of the signs, even if you can't do anything about them.

chucky

Snooze wrote: »

I think it's still well early days yet and people recently out of work are bumbling along by paying the mortgage with their credit cards etc hoping that the current 'crisis' will be over in a few months. I reckon that the real visual signs of it will come in 12-24 months when the credit card money runs out and the fixed mortgage deals come to an end, then you'll see the repo levels hit the roof and people pretty much doing anything to get some money to feed their families and keep a roof over their heads. In fact it's happening already if take a look at the jobs:wanted section in just about any city on gumtree : typical ad "work wanted : laid off 4 weeks ago, no jobs about, DESPERATE for money, will do ANYTHING and I mean ANYTHING, contact xxx" etc. It's a criminal's market at the moment and it's gonna get worse before it gets better.

Rob

Unemployment is around 6% that means that 94% of people are still working! Estimated unemployment figures are predicted to hit 10% that's 90% of people still inwork.

It's also fact that people are reducing their Consumer Lending - that includes Credit cards.

It's also fact that people are over-paying their mortgages due to the current rate-cuts.

To me that isn't a "criminal market". Maybe you and you're friends have been unlucky. Good luck to them in finding another job. I also have seen a lot of job losses recently and it is these people that will have the biggest problems.

ad9898_3

stevetodd wrote: »

90%! You think 90% of the population didn't have accounts with either NR, Kaupthing, BB or Icesave AND doesn't look at property prices AND what the base rate is AND has no friends AND is not aware of what the FTSE is doing! I think you have a misconception about Mr Average. Not to mention the explosion of restaurant deals (which I forgot to add to my original list)

Well Icesave and KE wouldn't exist, they are internet based, no media, no internet.

Where exactly would you look at property prices ??, only in the window of an EA, and who looks there these days:D.

I only said 90% of the people wouldn't know what the FTSE was at without the media, not the other things on your list.

ad9898_3

chucky wrote: »

Unemployment is around 6% that means that 94%of people are still working! Estimated unemployment figures are predicted to hit 10% that's 90% of people still inwork.

I do agree with that chucky, however fear is driving a lot of people at the moment, most people I know are still working like you say, but all of them fear losing their job, so have cut right back on spending, or are paying down debt.