Perceptions of the recession

stevetodd

chewmylegoff wrote: »

ok, so you'd know what the base rate was. perhaps.

however, would you actually know what had happened to kaupthing without the media? you would only hear what they chose to tell you. your only corroborating evidence would be tales of dragons laying waste to iceland, or some kind of massive volcanic eruption.

the only saving grace is that with no media your initial thought wouldn't be "i hope kerry katona didn't escape".

Perhaps? no perhaps about it! I would obviously know from both the letters they send me and the amounts drawn at the bank, also if there was no media I would make it my business to know what the base rate is, as so much depends on it to me.

I would know there was something wrong at KE (and BB but only had a small amount in there) not accessing 33k of savings is enough to start alarm bells ringing (rather than dreaming about dragons and/or volcanos)

chewmylegoff

stevetodd wrote: »

Perhaps? no perhaps about it! I would obviously know from both the letters they send me and the amounts drawn at the bank, also if there was no media I would make it my business to know what the base rate is, as so much depends on it to me.

I would know there was something wrong at KE (and BB but only had a small amount in there) not accessing 33k of savings is enough to start alarm bells ringing (rather than dreaming about dragons and/or volcanos)

that is conjecture at best.

with no independent media to report what was really happening, kaupthing could just write you a letter saying that due to internal restructuring you wouldn't be able to access your money for a while. somewhat later you'd get a letter from whoever it was who the UK bit of kaupthing was transferred to saying that they had taken over your account. i think it's rather presumptous of you to know that you would be apprised of the exact situation.

in concert with this there would be all kinds of rumours flying around as to what was really going on at kaupthing. with no media to verify these stories you wouldn't know what was true or who to believe.

Thrugelmir

chewmylegoff wrote: »

in the absence of media reporting about the recession and connected doom and gloom, the FTSE wouldn't have gone under 4,000. the FTSE was only driven down below 4,000 because of bad news about the economic outlook - the media. if there was no news about the economy reported in the media there probably wouldn't be a FTSE, and you certainly wouldn't look at it and be able to draw conclusions about the general economic conditions as the state of the economy would not be "priced in".

The media reporting of the "recession" may well influence an individuals decision to buy or sell shares. However the value of an individual Company, and ultimately its share price will depend on what it is worth. "Worth" is depends on the view you take. Markets are moved up or down on reported information by Companies and external events such as commodity prices. Wire feeds have supplied information long before the media explosion and the internet arrived.

If anything there is too much instant simplistic analysis of complex issues. The reporting of LloydsHBOS results being one. If I was on Lloyds board I take the opportunity to post the worst possible results. Thereby laying a smokescreen to implement the cull of headcount from the combined group. Which in light of the expected numbers won't be any surprise.

stevetodd

chewmylegoff wrote: »

that is conjecture at best.

with no independent media to report what was really happening, kaupthing could just write you a letter saying that due to internal restructuring you wouldn't be able to access your money for a while. somewhat later you'd get a letter from whoever it was who the UK bit of kaupthing was transferred to saying that they had taken over your account. i think it's rather presumptous of you to know that you would be apprised of the exact situation.

in concert with this there would be all kinds of rumours flying around as to what was really going on at kaupthing. with no media to verify these stories you wouldn't know what was true or who to believe.

No you were right the first time I would have assumed dragons where causing problems in Iceland after volcanic eruptions.

ps what colour is the sky on your world?

chewmylegoff

Thrugelmir wrote: »

The media reporting of the "recession" may well influence an individuals decision to buy or sell shares. However the value of an individual Company, and ultimately its share price will depend on what it is worth. "Worth" is depends on the view you take. Markets are moved up or down on reported information by Companies and external events such as commodity prices. Wire feeds have supplied information long before the media explosion and the internet arrived.

information as described above can only affect your view of the value of a share if you know about it. the market is only aware of the information through "the media", whether the conduit was a wire feed, or robert bleedin preston.

nickmason

I know where you're going with this poll, but I'm not sure it works - I don't think you can just remove "the media."
FTSE crash - but do I only know about that because of the media?
Bank shares - to be honest that'd tell me enough - bank losses = defaults = recession.
Interest rates indicating something funny going on at the bank.
Exchange rates showing something very funny going on - but then I haven't been abroad recently, so do I have to imagine not being aware of this?
Redundancies - without the media I couldn't tell whether it was just local to my world.
Shops closing - as above.

Most of that I imagine is pretty common to most people.

Hearsay? - my friends in high finance have made it pretty clear we're in a mess, but I obviously can't determine how much their mood is driven by the media. Capital has definitely frozen, and I could probably deduce that that equals recession.

I've got some pretty good links to this government, and they (my contacts, not the government!) have certainly been saying it was going to happen for at least a year, more like two.

It's an interesting thought that - although this has been quite quick, and the credit crunch kicked hard last year, the knowledge within the powers that be that there was a problem predated that.

Frankly - within the slightly artificial rules of this game - I reckon I'd have called it before our technical recession; and with the benefit of hindsight, remember that we had two quarters of zero growth, so arguably the recession had indeed started (but for a couple of quid of GDP) a year before we were in technical recession.

Thrugelmir

chewmylegoff wrote: »

information as described above can only affect your view of the value of a share if you know about it. the market is only aware of the information through "the media", whether the conduit was a wire feed, or robert bleedin preston.

The media only covers newsworthy events. AWT being a classic example when over a hundred other restaurants closed last month. These would have made little more than local news.

chewmylegoff

Thrugelmir wrote: »

The media only covers newsworthy events. AWT being a classic example when over a hundred other restaurants closed last month. These would have made little more than local news.

the local news was part of the media last time i looked.

if we're not going to count that as part of the media, then yes i would definitely know about the recession without the media it was reported on london tonight, and i read about it in the evening standard.

lostinrates

chewmylegoff wrote: »

that is conjecture at best.

with no independent media to report what was really happening, kaupthing could just write you a letter saying that due to internal restructuring you wouldn't be able to access your money for a while. somewhat later you'd get a letter from whoever it was who the UK bit of kaupthing was transferred to saying that they had taken over your account. i think it's rather presumptous of you to know that you would be apprised of the exact situation.

in concert with this there would be all kinds of rumours flying around as to what was really going on at kaupthing. with no media to verify these stories you wouldn't know what was true or who to believe.

Surely this presumes no requirement to be 'honest' :rolleyes: from the bank and large scale stupidity or lack of curiosity on an astounding scale of those banking withthem? The letters, as they stood with media coverage went some thing along the lines of

Dear LiR,

Kaupthing went over the edge, but don't worry, you now bank with ING direct...soon you should be able to access your funds.

So, sure, they knew we knew , but I would have been very concerned that my banking arrangments had changed without knowing why, and I'd want to know why, and I'd do my best to find out.

lostinrates

nickmason wrote: »

.

Hearsay? - my friends in high finance have made it pretty clear we're in a mess, but I obviously can't determine how much their mood is driven by the media. .

Its a hard line to guage that one isn't it? I never expect my friends to tell me what they can't/shouldn't, likewise my DH, but quite often he raises an eyebrow at false trails my mind is trying to follow. He barely gets time to scratch the surface of the kind of media I bother with...working from the facts where he can on the specific relevent media where possible....which seem to play down rather than up generally.