The List: The Next Iceland

mzqa395

Great Britain
Economic damage:The financial crisis has gotten so severe in Britain that it has earned London a new nickname in the international media: Reykjavik-on-Thames. The question in Britain is no longer when the economy will enter a recession, but when it will enter a depression, with many bracing for a slump that could rival the 1930s in severity. GDP fell 1.5 percent in the fourth quarter of 2008, and the European Union estimates it will contract another 2.8 percent in 2009. Unemployment is projected to balloon to more than 8 percent by year's end, and an estimated 23 percent of adult Britons currently consider their debt level "unmanageable."

The British downturn is especially severe because the U.K. is more dependent on its financial sector than most developed economies. All told, British banks currently hold about $4.4 trillion in foreign debt (which, until recently, included a large amount of Iceland's debt). For a $2.1 trillion economy, that's a heavy load to bear.
Political fallout: Prime Minister Gordon Brown initially earned voters' confidence by seizing a leading international role in the response to the crisis but, as the recession deepened, British sentiment has turned against the government. A recent poll showed that almost 6 in 10 Britons think the latest economic recovery measures will fail and gave the opposition Tories a 15-point edge over Brown's Labour Party.
The government has already nationalized much of its financial sector, and investors fear that another round of nationalization might be around the corner. Government intervention has become so pervasive that nearly half of the economy will consist of state spending in the coming year. This, in turn, has earned Britain another nickname: Soviet Britain.
Lativa


Economic damage:Latvia is arguably the one country that most resembles Iceland, and not just because of the cold climate. The small, developing country's lofty growth rates in recent years were fueled by heavy investment from elsewhere in Europe, massive foreign debt, booming consumption, and minimal savings. After growing at an extraordinary 12.2 percent rate in 2006, Latvia's economy is now the weakest of the 27 EU member states. A European Commission report forecast that Latvia's GDP is set to contract 6.9 percent in 2009 and a further 2.4 percent in 2010, with unemployment climbing into the double digits by next year. The International Monetary Fund has approved a $7.3 billion bailout package for Latvia, but a long road to recovery remains.
With financial markets tightening and housing markets crashing down to earth, Latvian businesses have ground to a halt and the government has been forced to cut services to the bone. A new program will involve a 25 percent cut in the state budget, 15 percent wage reductions, and widespread layoffs.
Political fallout:The financial crisis threatens not only Latvians' livelihoods, but it also poses a danger to their nascent democratic system. The government's popularity currently sits at about 10 percent. In the largest protests since the rallies against Soviet rule in the 1980s, more than 10,000 Latvians gathered earlier this month in the capital of Riga to protest the government's mismanagement of the economy. Some demonstrations turned violent, as angry youths threw rocks and eggs at police and lobbed cobblestones at the Parliament building.
The government has initiated a crackdown of its own, unleashing its security forces against those guilty of economic pessimism. When a university lecturer speculated that the crisis might cause a devaluation in Latvia's currency, he was arrested and held in jail for two days.



Economic damage: The Greek economy, burdened by a debt-to-GDP ratio of more than 90 percent, is one of the shakiest in the European Union. The adoption of the euro had previously fueled Greece's economic boom, but it is now one of the primary obstacles to getting the country out from underneath its massive debt. The typical method countries use to alleviate their debt is to depreciate their currency, lessening the real value of their liabilities. But with a single currency in use across the euro zone, Greece no longer controls its own monetary policy. Faced with the strain of falling tax revenues and the need to fund a bailout program, Greece could be forced to withdraw from the euro zone or default on its debt.

Standard & Poor's cut the country's sovereign debt rating earlier this month due to concerns over its rising deficit. Now, Greece must pay 5.6 percent to finance its 10-year debt, 2.5 percentage points more than Germany. As the financial crisis continues, expect the rift between the haves and the have-nots in the EU to widen further.
Political fallout: Outrage over a police shooting spilled over into widespread rioting throughout Greece in December. More than 150 banks were targeted by youths during the first days of the riots. Greece's bleak economic situation is widely considered to be the underlying cause of the unrest. Greek banks had invested heavily in development in the Balkans and, with the onset of the financial crisis, found themselves dangerously overextended. The center-right government was forced to bail them out, but at the cost of drawing funds from social welfare programs. The image of the Greek government handing bags full of money to wealthy financiers while services were cut for the general populace has decimated the government's credibility.
http://www.foreignpolicy.com/story/cms.php?story_id=4648

gozomark

you missed out the two on the next page

Ukraine and Nicaragua - interesting that Ireland wasn't in the list

globalds

I would put Ireland very close to the top of the list and above UK.
Things there are falling too rapidly for any kind of control and it's effects filtering down into the real system are far more apparent than here.

sh856531

Government intervention has become so pervasive that nearly half of the economy will consist of state spending in the coming year

This is true of all the "rich" european countries. In fact, countries like Sweden, Germany and France were already playing around in that sort of ball park long before the fiscal stimulus plans were announced. America isn't that far behind us these days either.

50% of all economic activity carried out by government. God help us all.

and gave the opposition Tories a 15-point edge over Brown's Labour Party.

Double god help us all...

:-(

gozomark

I redouble...

globalds

Jon Moulton, the private equity chief, warned a City lunch this week that he feared serious civil unrest. There was, he said, a 25 per cent chance of one of the 15 member countries of the eurozone pulling out of the currency club. That, he said, would be a catastrophic shock leading to a “far greater financial crisis” than the current one.

http://business.timesonline.co.uk/tol/business/columnists/article5729034.ece

I smell a run on the Euro .

gozomark

I don't think it would be pulling out, but kicked out, if it happened. No matter how bad things are for places like Greece and Ireland at the moment, being outside the Eurozone would be a catastrophe for them, with a run on the currency being just the start of the problems.

Agree, Eurozone looks to have many problems with its one interest rate fits all, and expect Euro to fall v £ and $. Eurozone problems have been glossed over too much by the ECB

withnell

I don't think that a 1 in 4 chance that ONE country will pull out will cause a run on the euro

gozomark

is it the odds or the one you disagree with ?

withnell

One member out of 15 is a small proportion, unlikely to cause a run.

25% is also an unlikely occurance

sh856531

From the article:

it is a recipe for trouble, come the traditional rioting months of the summer.

I just love the fact that we have "traditional rioting months" - lol.

I suppose we're going to have to do something with our time this summer seeing as it won't be refurbishing houses. A good old fashioned riot seems as good as anything else.

We should invite the French - now there's a people who know how to throw a riot

:-)