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Gold to buy or not to buy
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But the report provided by cloud_dog: http://www.safehaven.com/article-12585.htm is based on technical analyst. That's why I asked.
The indicators tell us that gold will go down.
They don't tell us anything about the psychology of human beings.0 -
But the report provided by cloud_dog: http://www.safehaven.com/article-12585.htm is based on technical analyst. That's why I asked.
Technical analysis is one of many investment analysis techniques and I'm sure it can be effective. However, there are many other analytical approaches which may show other potential outcomes.
The point I am trying to make is than nobody really knows whether gold or any other investment will go up or down. You have to do research and then make a decision. We all have our opinions and that's fine and it's good to debate them here or anywhere else. What sometimes disappoints me on these Boards is when posts are so definitive (I am not referring to yours). Some people (again, not you) may be unreasonably influenced when all they are reading is someone's opinion.
OK, that's my opinion - of course, I could be wrong :rolleyes:0 -
That's true. Most of our experience is of individual counties whose currencies collapse and then gold seems a good way of preserving wealth for those living there.
But, those people could also have preserved their wealth by buying investments in other more stable countries and of course that's what many did. Then their wealth would grow, rather than just preserve.
There's loads of history of people's experience when an individual currency collapses, and in recent times. So all you need to do is look at what they did, and what they ought to have done etc. The experience is there.
Of course, if the whole planet collapses in terms of economy, then I don't think gold will be of much use. You'd be wanting productive commodities in those circumstances.
I think your comments are fair for some economies, but not for the UK. So many people appear to be so despondent on these Boards. Let's remember we are lucky enough to be living in one of the richest countries in the world with an incredibly high standard of living compared to most of the world's population. Our economy is not going to collapse; it will merely struggle for a few years along with many other countries.
I cannot immediately think of any country in the "first world" whose currency has collapsed in such a way as to have a serious effect on the country's citizens. Let's think - I suppose Germany in the 30s and maybe the US at the same time. Recently I can only think of countries such as Zimbabwe, Brazil and Argentina and I would not (with respect) classify them as part of the world's leading economies.0 -
TA is calculated guessing, no one knows what happens next. Form your own opinion, dont bet on everything going your way to a timetable
TA is mostly about magic numbers and highlighting possibles, you still have to decide if you agree
Probability works according to levels of confidence. If TA says 90% gold will rise and you think otherwise then you would have good cause to look into it further, it makes a good tool but not a master0 -
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I think your comments are fair for some economies, but not for the UK. So many people appear to be so despondent on these Boards. Let's remember we are lucky enough to be living in one of the richest countries in the world with an incredibly high standard of living compared to most of the world's population. Our economy is not going to collapse; it will merely struggle for a few years along with many other countries.
I cannot immediately think of any country in the "first world" whose currency has collapsed in such a way as to have a serious effect on the country's citizens. Let's think - I suppose Germany in the 30s and maybe the US at the same time. Recently I can only think of countries such as Zimbabwe, Brazil and Argentina and I would not (with respect) classify them as part of the world's leading economies.
The UK was the world superpower up until 1939, but declining. The US took that role after WWII.
Since then the UK has declined in so many measures that we're embarrassed by the productivity of competitor European nations in everything they produce.
We used to be known for quality production.
We lost that, and then we became a mecca for finance.
We're losing that too.......
What's left?0 -
Couple of things........
But, timescales are the relevance here and whether the down bit is a puase for breath or a more bloodied correction, etc.The indicators tell us that gold will go down.
Well, this is where I would disagree.They don't tell us anything about the psychology of human beings.
TA is a tool, one of many and cannot ever be viewed in isolation. What I would say is that TA identifies trends and highlights possible future movements. you will notice that all good TA is only ever really confirmed after the decisive move has been made, anyone who predicts things 100% is lying.
Back to the question..........Because TA refelcts trading patterns I beleive it absolutely reflects the psychology of investors / traders, and because of this is almost a self fulfilling prophecy.
cloud_dogPersonal Responsibility - Sad but True
Sometimes.... I am like a dog with a bone0 -
Mike, as uih039 points out you cannot take anything as gospel and as I pointed out the link is an individuals blog. Ok, he may have done his research but you cannot make decisions based just on that.But the report provided by cloud_dog: http://www.safehaven.com/article-12585.htm is based on technical analyst. That's why I asked.
On the buying front I'm probably with Goldfinger on this, now is probably not the time to be buying not unless you are comfortable with seeing your investment drop by 25% (or possibly more). All things tend to rise with the in-flow of monies, it wouldn't surprise me if equities staged a mini revival and if this were the case it is likely that money would flow out of Gold. Longer term I still expect gold to rise (primarilly for the reasons in the article below).
I will say, I am a gold bug, and............. I do believe, I do believe :rolleyes:
Primarilly for Mike22 benefit but also anyone else who's interested I am re-posting a link to, probably, the most comprehensive single piece of commentary identifying why gold will (???) go higher..........
http://www.kitco.com/ind/Hommelberg/feb062009.html
cloud_dogPersonal Responsibility - Sad but True
Sometimes.... I am like a dog with a bone0 -
I'm also in the camp that gold is pricey here and would look for a pullback to buy again, of course that may never come, but hey, you pays your money and take your chance. I think the gold miners are probably a better risk reward here relative to the gold price.
On the topic of manipulation, I'd probably say all markets are manipulated to some extent by the big players, why should gold be any different?Hope for the best.....Plan for the worst!
"Never in the history of the world has there been a situation so bad that the government can't make it worse." Unknown0
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