London - on the way out?

WTF?_2

From the FT:

http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/166e9400-f873-11dd-aae8-000077b07658.html

The predictions have been dire. The International Monetary Fund has signalled that Britain is facing the deepest recession of any big industrialised nation, forecasting a contraction of 2.8 per cent in gross domestic product this year. Criticisms that policymakers have relied too much on, and taken too lax a regulatory approach to, London’s financial institutions have mounted.
..
Will Self, the London-based author, says London was the “California of Europe” during the boom years. “But look at California now ... What will be left?” he asks of London. “A still cosmopolitan but deteriorating city, with lousy public services and a creaking transport infrastructure – think New York in the 1970s – high crime levels all round its periphery and an inner core of unassailable affluence.”
..
A report produced by the London School of Economics for the City of London Corporation in October shows that almost one-third of London’s 4.2m jobs are supplied by finance and business services. By contrast, the lack of substantial manufacturing employment is striking, making up just 3.7 per cent of jobs, excluding publishing.

The report says that London “has only a third as many manufacturing jobs as might be expected from the size of its overall employment”. Other activities dedicated to servicing the demands of the local population – in energy, construction, distribution, education and health – are also under-represented.

Definitely, London benefited massively from the boom. Will be interesting to see how it fares in the bust, logic would dictate that it will be hit harder than most places ....

Generali

!!!!!!? wrote: »

From the FT:

http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/166e9400-f873-11dd-aae8-000077b07658.html



Definitely, London benefited massively from the boom. Will be interesting to see how it fares in the bust, logic would dictate that it will be hit harder than most places ....

My belief is that the worst hit regions will be NE England, ex-mining Wales, ex-industrial Scotland, London and SE England. Quite possibly in that order.

The first three because of their massive reliance on Government spending which I feel will come under pressure. The last 2 because of the collapse in finance industries.

Really2

!!!!!!? wrote: »

From the FT:

http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/166e9400-f873-11dd-aae8-000077b07658.html



Definitely, London benefited massively from the boom. Will be interesting to see how it fares in the bust, logic would dictate that it will be hit harder than most places ....

I agree. Anywhere which has very high property prices and a lot of its work forced in a sector that is going to be hit one of the hardest (Financial and related sectors) is going to see bigger falls.
But on the other note because of the value of propertyss in London it is going to make the "average fall" price look more.
That is why we have posts saying prices have only 5% etc in my area.
It stands to reason the most affordable areas will see the lowest drops (unless they are somewhere no one wants to live etc)

drc

I've always thought that London was overrated (I am a born and bred Londoner) and is a great city if you are;

a) a tourist.
b) very wealthy.

Otherwise its a difficult city to live in, particularly if you have a family and want a home of your own.

Kez100

In London finance was big business and will suffer from the lack of that but some businesses - say hotels, theatre and restaurants which offer vaue for money - will then help mitigate this through increased tourism due to sterling.

Out,_Vile_Jelly

London is a vibrant, diverse and resilient beast and has survived far more in its history (fire, plague, bombing etc) than most other UK towns. Yes, the bloated finance sector will undoubtedly take a hit, but the city will lick its wounds and recover- as it survived the slow death of its once thriving river trade and docklands.

I'm probably a bit biased- I've lived here for several years now and can't comprehend the concept of choosing to live out in the provinces. *shiver*

kennyboy66_2

Generali wrote: »

My belief is that the worst hit regions will be NE England, ex-mining Wales, ex-industrial Scotland, London and SE England. Quite possibly in that order.

The first three because of their massive reliance on Government spending which I feel will come under pressure. The last 2 because of the collapse in finance industries.

I'd tend to agree with this, however would say that London & SE will be hit hardest first.
A large proportion of additional government spending in the other areas is a result of pension and social security spending (in that order). It will be difficult to cut either significantly in the short term (5 years), although arguably both will need to be addressed. The idea floated that the state pension would be re-linked to earnings looks fanciful to say the least.

Going to be very difficult to cut benefits for the elderly - there are a lot of them and they vote!

Scotland to me seems to have the worst of all worlds - a large public sector, a large financial services sector (that Gordon Brown won't be able to protect for ever) and the Barnett formula which (should) dictate that as public spending falls the effects should be more magnified in Scotland than England.

Identifiable spending on public services in Scotland is £1500 higher per person per year than in England

Rochdale_Pioneers

London stinks. 3 years working there felt like a lifetime.

Generali

kennyboy66 wrote: »

I'd tend to agree with this, however would say that London & SE will be hit hardest first.

Good point. The other areas won't feel the impact until Government spending has to fall, assuming that it does of course. My belief is that it will.

lostinrates

Out,_Vile_Jelly wrote: »

London is a vibrant, diverse and resilient beast and has survived far more in its history (fire, plague, bombing etc) than most other UK towns. Yes, the bloated finance sector will undoubtedly take a hit, but the city will lick its wounds and recover- as it survived the slow death of its once thriving river trade and docklands.

I'm probably a bit biased- I've lived here for several years now and can't comprehend the concept of choosing to live out in the provinces. *shiver*

I love London, and it should it fail to remain 'in' its not going to be bombed out...so know one will make you move, don't panic, lol! Its highly evident that the finance industry, and those that relate to it are going to be hit.

adr0ck

i predict that London house prices will collapse when it starts flooding regularly in 20 - 30 years time........thats what lovelock thinks anyway